Mercedes W14 Speculation Thread

[organic]

If you look back except 2020 Mercedes never had a really strong first races
They needed to wait for upgrades to win without a problem

They won in Bahrain, Spain, portimao (3 out of the first 4 races), and could've won France and imola too at the beginning of 2021 on pace

Maybe there are underlying problems in their design choices that lead to these issues at the beginning of the season. Like they are very willing to go with the idea with the most potential, even if it's not going to be the easiest to unlock.

Reports that they made design choices late into the development cycle that wee significant enough to delay the program, combined with George's recent comments isn't a brilliant sign for the coming season but I'm confident they'll make progress

[djones]

With the latest corporate PR training all being pretty equal, I can’t actually remember the last time a senior team member or driver was anything other than negative or neutral in expectations. So I’d take even what a driver is saying as almost meaningless.

The good thing for Mercedes is they likely have more and bigger performance chunks to gain over Redbull. Redbull had a good design and now can only really incrementally refine it. Mercedes had big problems to solve which all things bring equal will free up more performance.

I’ve explained that badly. And we will see at the first race how it’s playing out. But I suspect as long as the core issues have been resolved we will see a much closer front fight. Let’s be honest it has to be or the season will be utterly boring again. Nobody wants the championship over by pretty much half way through the season.

[chrisc90]

With the latest corporate PR training all being pretty equal, I can’t actually remember the last time a senior team member or driver was anything other than negative or neutral in expectations. So I’d take even what a driver is saying as almost meaningless.

The good thing for Mercedes is they likely have more and bigger performance chunks to gain over Redbull. Redbull had a good design and now can only really incrementally refine it. Mercedes had big problems to solve which all things bring equal will free up more performance.

I’ve explained that badly. And we will see at the first race how it’s playing out. But I suspect as long as the core issues have been resolved we will see a much closer front fight. Let’s be honest it has to be or the season will be utterly boring again. Nobody wants the championship over by pretty much half way through the season.

I don’t think that’s exactly true. There is no upper barrier of how fast you can make your car providing your within the rules set out by the FIA.
For example RB held back a chassis that was lighter last season which would have increased lap time due to the car being on target for weight or just over.
There is no guarantee that Red Bull have brought the best overall car to each race last year.

Yes Mercedes need to find half a second to be competitive to the leaders, but finding a way to do that with your current concept, unless they change this season, and being able to bring that many upgrades through the season, is heavily capped by the budget cap that’s in place.

[Venturiation]

If you look back except 2020 Mercedes never had a really strong first races
They needed to wait for upgrades to win without a problem

They won in Bahrain, Spain, portimao (3 out of the first 4 races), and could've won France and imola too at the beginning of 2021 on pace

Maybe there are underlying problems in their design choices that lead to these issues at the beginning of the season. Like they are very willing to go with the idea with the most potential, even if it's not going to be the easiest to unlock.

Reports that they made design choices late into the development cycle that wee significant enough to delay the program, combined with George's recent comments isn't a brilliant sign for the coming season but I'm confident they'll make progress

just before silverstone everyone was saying mercedes is too far back and the RB car too superior, impossible to catch up

[Venturiation]

Allison explaining how they fell in a trap without by downplaying porpoising

[Chuckjr]

With the latest corporate PR training all being pretty equal, I can’t actually remember the last time a senior team member or driver was anything other than negative or neutral in expectations. So I’d take even what a driver is saying as almost meaningless.

The good thing for Mercedes is they likely have more and bigger performance chunks to gain over Redbull. Redbull had a good design and now can only really incrementally refine it. Mercedes had big problems to solve which all things bring equal will free up more performance.

I’ve explained that badly. And we will see at the first race how it’s playing out. But I suspect as long as the core issues have been resolved we will see a much closer front fight. Let’s be honest it has to be or the season will be utterly boring again. Nobody wants the championship over by pretty much half way through the season.

Drivers are usually the most honest of the team, actually. It’s the principals and heads of departments that are usually passing the koolaid.

You don’t know if Merc have bigger performance chunks to gain. That’s an illusion in your head built by people here who think there’s some kida special magic in turd pods — most are die hard fans of the team, fwiw. For all we know RB will find much larger performance chunks than anybody. Incremental refinement is relative. Neweys incremental refinement may be 3 seconds or more by the end of season.

It’s a friggin pipe dream to think Merc is suddenly over the season going to make bigger jumps. The only reason they got faster last year is because the sharp end had given up by mid season and moved to 2023. Not Merc. They were still futzing with their car. Merc is *now* admittedly making big enough changes to delay the car. That does not sound to me like a team who is on it and knows and understands the fundamentals of the car.

They have been flailing with this odd ball design for over a year now and still seem to be fumbling. That’s a long way to say their “core reasons” for being slow last year are in fact *not* worked out.

It is what it is.

Would it be great if they were competitive? Absolutely. But there no reason to believe they will be.

[Venturiation]

With the latest corporate PR training all being pretty equal, I can’t actually remember the last time a senior team member or driver was anything other than negative or neutral in expectations. So I’d take even what a driver is saying as almost meaningless.

The good thing for Mercedes is they likely have more and bigger performance chunks to gain over Redbull. Redbull had a good design and now can only really incrementally refine it. Mercedes had big problems to solve which all things bring equal will free up more performance.

I’ve explained that badly. And we will see at the first race how it’s playing out. But I suspect as long as the core issues have been resolved we will see a much closer front fight. Let’s be honest it has to be or the season will be utterly boring again. Nobody wants the championship over by pretty much half way through the season.

Drivers are usually the most honest of the team, actually. It’s the principals and heads of departments that are usually passing the koolaid.

You don’t know if Merc have bigger performance chunks to gain. That’s an illusion in your head built by people here who think there’s some kida special magic in turd pods — most are die hard fans of the team, fwiw. For all we know RB will find much larger performance chunks than anybody. Incremental refinement is relative. Neweys incremental refinement may be 3 seconds or more by the end of season.

It’s a friggin pipe dream to think Merc is suddenly over the season going to make bigger jumps. The only reason they got faster last year is because the sharp end had given up by mid season and moved to 2023. Not Merc. They were still futzing with their car. Merc is *now* admittedly making big enough changes to delay the car. That does not sound to me like a team who is on it and knows and understands the fundamentals of the car.

They have been flailing with this odd ball design for over a year now and still seem to be fumbling. That’s a long way to say their “core reasons” for being slow last year are in fact *not* worked out.

It is what it is.

Would it be great if they were competitive? Absolutely. But there no reason to believe they will be.

reducing the entire performance of the car to sidepods

[Cs98]

reducing the entire performance of the car to sidepods

Which is what people did in favour of Merc when they were revealed. Well at least some people, the usual suspects...

It's a complicated issue but surely the sidepods played a large part, either directly or indirectly on the floor stability.

[Venturiation]

reducing the entire performance of the car to sidepods

Which is what people did in favour of Merc when they were revealed. Well at least some people, the usual suspects...

Most fans only see the sidepods, like now they say Redbull sidepods means 3 seconds quicker car

[mendis]

reducing the entire performance of ji the car to sidepods

Which is what people did in favour of Merc when they were revealed. Well at least some people, the usual suspects...

Most fans only see the sidepods, like now they say Redbull sidepods means 3 seconds quicker car

You can look at the 'pods' as symbolic in these conversation of the overall car. Problems could be at various places in the car. If they change the pods, it means they never really understood that philosophy. If they don't and struggle, it means the car has problems that they don't fully understand. If they change and make big strides, they had gone down the rogue ally with the car. Pods are symbolic, whether we understand them are not, whether that's the culprit or not.

[Venturiation]

Which is what people did in favour of Merc when they were revealed. Well at least some people, the usual suspects...

Most fans only see the sidepods, like now they say Redbull sidepods means 3 seconds quicker car

You can look at the 'pods' as symbolic in these conversation of the overall car. Problems could be at various places in the car. If they change the pods, it means they never really understood that philosophy. If they don't and struggle, it means the car has problems that they don't fully understand. If they change and make big strides, they had gone down the rogue ally with the car. Pods are symbolic, whether we understand them are not, whether that's the culprit or not.

So for you any changes to the car it means it’s a failure? Why are you so focused negatively on Mercedes like this ?

[mendis]

The good thing for Mercedes is they likely have more and bigger performance chunks to gain over Redbull. Redbull had a good design and now can only really incrementally refine it. Mercedes had big problems to solve which all things bring equal will free up more performance.

You don’t know if Merc have bigger performance chunks to gain. That’s an illusion in your head built by people here who think there’s some kida special magic in turd pods — most are die hard fans of the team, fwiw. For all we know RB will find much larger performance chunks than anybody. Incremental refinement is relative. Neweys incremental refinement may be 3 seconds or more by the end of season.

I never understood why people think the car behind on performance, has more margin for development. It's what was said about other engines in 2014 against Mercedes. Others took until 2019/20 to converge, despite limitless development. Which design philosophy and car platform provide a bigger canvas depends on how well a team understands the rules and conceives the best possible solution and then continues to find ideas to enhance it. Just because a car is behind, doesn't automatically makes it a solution that has more potential to gain performance.

[mendis]

Most fans only see the sidepods, like now they say Redbull sidepods means 3 seconds quicker car

You can look at the 'pods' as symbolic in these conversation of the overall car. Problems could be at various places in the car. If they change the pods, it means they never really understood that philosophy. If they don't and struggle, it means the car has problems that they don't fully understand. If they change and make big strides, they had gone down the rogue ally with the car. Pods are symbolic, whether we understand them are not, whether that's the culprit or not.

So for you any changes to the car it means it’s a failure? Why are you so focused negatively on Mercedes like this ?

I don't know where you see negativity. It's way of concluding their design approach. It's not what I mean that matters about the change, it's the results that can speak for itself. Start winning, good design/good job, if not, bad design/bad job.

[chrisc90]

Most fans only see the sidepods, like now they say Redbull sidepods means 3 seconds quicker car

You can look at the 'pods' as symbolic in these conversation of the overall car. Problems could be at various places in the car. If they change the pods, it means they never really understood that philosophy. If they don't and struggle, it means the car has problems that they don't fully understand. If they change and make big strides, they had gone down the rogue ally with the car. Pods are symbolic, whether we understand them are not, whether that's the culprit or not.

So for you any changes to the car it means it’s a failure? Why are you so focused negatively on Mercedes like this ?

What other routes/avenues is there to look at it on a whole though, realistically? What's your take on the potential development for this season, and any sort of issues they might have overcome?

[Venturiation]

organic
I feel like these merc threads become hopium vs schadenfreude

Reality is it's probably going to end up something between the two: merc will have a decent car again and be closer to the front, and with their elite driver lineup they'll be fighting for podiums on merit and fighting for a few race wins. Their development works just like it worked with the w13, they have a better rear suspension as they've understood their ride problems. But they're behind in terms of development because they spent a while unpacking porpoising at the beginning of '22. Probably by 2025 they will have caught up with the extra tunnel time

That's my view

yeah they lost alot of time it will be impossible to catch up in just 1 year