The curious case of Jenson Button

[Mika1]

I think Button is doing a good job, but nothing special. Button must be 100% happy with his car, then he can shine, but obviously that isn't the case at the moment.

[JimClarkFan]

I think Button is doing a good job, but nothing special. Button must be 100% happy with his car, then he can shine, but obviously that isn't the case at the moment.

That is generally what I believe to, driving well but not Alonso well.

[PlatinumZealot]

Button is driving well this season... so far. I remember somebody posting, I thought it was in this thread but can't find it, that Button drives well when nothing is expected of him, I think I am beginning to see this as well.

I'm not convinced Button's driving well. I wonder how good he would be looking with anyone other than Perez in the other seat.

+1

[raymondu999]

The issue with this is that you are looking at past performance, and by adding or subtracting Hamiltons gap onto Buttons it assumes that Button is only capable of driving to his mean performance over the past few years, and therefore discounts the potential that he is actually driving better.

No it doesn't - it assumes Button drives to *his* mean - which I don't feel is a bad assumption at all. Don't forget that we are not looking at what Button can do - we are looking at what Lewis can do, relative to Button, in equal cars. And given that we have three different numbers for what that relative gap is - and all of them valid, then we have to take an approximation. The best I can think of is mean gap.

[raymondu999]

How do you know he doesn't have the fastest car on the grid, and is driving terribly? How do you know that Hamilton, Alonso, or Jim Clark in that car wouldn't be sticking it on pole?

That has always been a bone of contention - and one of the reasons why I was never jumping up and down claiming Alonso was getting the maximum out of his car every race last year. We simply don't have enough (or any - to be frank) data to make such a comparison.

IMO as last year's Ferrari, this year's McLaren has good race pace. Let's not forget that it looked set for a possible podium in Malaysia, and was a clear 5th in China. Let's also not forget that he was pumping in strong laptimes throughout the Chinese GP.

[JimClarkFan]

The issue with this is that you are looking at past performance, and by adding or subtracting Hamiltons gap onto Buttons it assumes that Button is only capable of driving to his mean performance over the past few years, and therefore discounts the potential that he is actually driving better.

No it doesn't - it assumes Button drives to *his* mean - which I don't feel is a bad assumption at all. Don't forget that we are not looking at what Button can do - we are looking at what Lewis can do, relative to Button, in equal cars. And given that we have three different numbers for what that relative gap is - and all of them valid, then we have to take an approximation. The best I can think of is mean gap.

OK, so as I understand it you are taking the average qualifying time, or race finishing time difference between the two as bench mark for comparison in China. Now we only need Hamilton to get in a Mclaren for us

[raymondu999]

You understand wrong. I'm proposing taking the average from 2010-2012 - when we had a clear comparison of how they stood up to each other in pace in identical (usually) machinery.

[JimClarkFan]

You understand wrong. I'm proposing taking the average from 2010-2012 - when we had a clear comparison of how they stood up to each other in pace in identical (usually) machinery.

Explain to me how what you are saying is different to what I have been saying because I'm lost .

If you we simply take the average gap between Hamilton and Button over the last few years and applyi it forward, with no further data manipulation then that tells us nothing about whether Button is driving well.... Again, if Button can only drive to his mean then the whole exercise is useless.

For it to be useful to assess if Button is driving well you would have to take the average gap and apply it forward, making that average gap Buttons 'normalised' performance. This 'normalised' gap would = Button operating at a theoretical mean 100% performance. Any change in that gap would therefore represent a change in performance, which we could subsequently use to transform the 100% performance to get a gauge of how Button is actually performing.

----------------
Example:
Hamilton is 0.2 seconds fast than Button over 3 season in qualifying.

0.20 second gap = normalized mean performance gap to Button = at this gap Button is operating at mean performance of 100%

Each 0.01 seconds change in that gap will equal a 5% performance increase or decrease relative to Buttons normalised mean performance.

If the gap decreases it means Button is driving better than his mean.
If that gap increases it means Button is driving poorer than his mean.

Lets say the gap decreases to 0.15, that means Button is driving 25% better than his mean performance over the last few years
-----------------

That is the only useful way of using Hamilton as a relative gauge of Buttons performance. Otherwise it isn't a relative gauge at all. Furthermore it assumes several things; 1- Hamilton always drives to his mean and his performance never changes, 2- the cars perform exactly the same....and many more assumptions I care not to list .

You could do this for any driver pair provided they are in the same car at the time of measurement.

Edit - I can't believe I wasted 15 minutes to write that

[Anon123]

Martin Brundle must read this forum he said "The curious case of Jenson Button" on his grid walk.

[JimClarkFan]

Martin Brundle must read this forum he said "The curious case of Jenson Button" on his grid walk.

lol - I seen that!

Did the term originate on this forum?

[raymondu999]

Aha. It seems we misunderstood each other then. I thought your question was "What could Hamilton have done" as opposed to "Button is driving better in 2013 than in 2012."

My mistake.

[JimClarkFan]

Aha. It seems we misunderstood each other then. I thought your question was "What could Hamilton have done" as opposed to "Button is driving better in 2013 than in 2012."

My mistake.

lol, sorry man, not what I was meaning!
Explains the crossed wires

[Jonnycraig]

On the 'skypad' reviewing Button vs Perez:

Davidson: 'Have a look how your teammate overtook you'
Button: 'Are you racing? No you're not racing...'

=D>

[Emerson.F]

Martin Brundle must read this forum he said "The curious case of Jenson Button" on his grid walk.

Lol i was thinking the same exact thing when he said that

[JimClarkFan]

On the 'skypad' reviewing Button vs Perez:

Davidson: 'Have a look how your teammate overtook you'
Button: 'Are you racing? No you're not racing...'

=D>

hhhhmmmm, as a Button fan I must admit that I have not liked his behaviour this weekend.

I felt that Perez raced very well, and at no point did I think that he raced unfairly or deliberately put button in a position where they were going to crash... to my eye it was button who moved over into Perez who was simply holding his ground when they banged wheels.

Buttons tone, both over the radio and in the interviews that followed was very presumptuous and I felt somewhat demeaning towards Perez. Button is a smart guy, with a good relationship with his team which he is exploiting in this game of politics he seems to be playing. He clearly doesn't like Perez racing him, and is using his leverage within the team to beat Perez rather than on the track.

Disappointing.