To be honest, i'm not so sure about these 'reliability' mountain the teams will face in the eye of having only 3 engines a season - because there's simply no way they're gonna manage that without major setbacks, so i'm rather expecting all teams to simply have planned in taking a scary amount of grid penalties, probably as much as they can in a single race.
toro rosso in particular has little to lose if their expectations are that their engine might need some time in the season start - if the Honda engine for 2018 turns out to be an absolute beast they'll have something to lose so that might change things, but you'll have to keep in mind the rule changes regarding grid penalties for 2018,
any driver that earns a penalty over 15 grid places, which is the equivalent of taking three extra new elements for the first time, will simply have to start from the back of the grid.
Rather than the positions of multiple penalised drivers being decided by how many grid places their penalties were ostensibly for, they will be lined up in the order of when they made the component changes.
and, not insignificant
Changes to ensure that oil cannot be used as fuel
Introduction of a detailed specification for oil
you'll only have 3 engines during a season, so every element of that which becomes a 4th element will be penalized by sending you to the back of the grid (atleast in the equivalent case of 15 place penalties). But the important thing is here; first come, first served. that would mean that if you are the first team during the day that mounts a 4th element, you are the first team/car that gets a penalty, let's say you would be serving a 'classic' 15 place grid penalty. but your competition has qualified one spot in front of you and then grabbed that 4th element. bad luck for them, because they'll be still behind you because you changed it first.
so now it becomes a game of getting all your elements renewed as fast as you can.
now if i am right, friday and saturday testing/practice doesn't count, only qually and race.
that would mean that per race event (which includes qually) you can at best change 2 elements. (perhaps some parts can be replaced during qually between f.e. Q1 and Q2, having it mounted at the clock start of Q1 and then still time to do a run in Q2, and then when you get back you change an element to be finished just in time do do 1 run in Q3. that could give you the opportunity to have element 1 at the start, element 2 by Q2, and element 3 by Q3. theoretically offcourse).
now, that means that in AUS nobody is going to get a grid penalty for exceeding engines/elements used (note that i'm not talking about changing a gearbox after qually).
but. round 2, and teams could already start using their 4th element - RIGHT?
so with still a full season to go, then wouldn't it be case of making sure that by race 3 you have used about 5 or even 6 engines/elements, which would set you free for the entirity for the 2018 season as of race 4 all the way to the last, iirc 20 races so you 'sacrifice' 3 races and have 17 races to go full on whilst your competitors might face their engine usage by 2/3 of the season, and you not need any grid penalty?
If i am right about this, then i'm rather expecting Toro Rosso to do exactly that, and if they do that, that doesn't actually mean that their new engine supplier is as bad as they were last year - it's just a smart tactic.
the only problem i think that excists in this case is that that must mean that the engine they'll run for the season start must be the same spec during the entire season.
meaning it has to be a beast right away, even if they tune it down through whatever means like software - if spec4 is what we'll see at AUS 2018, but they're actually intending to introduce spec5 'later on', then that kind of makes that benefit go out of the window as you'll then have for example 2 spec4 engines and 1 spec5 engine to do your season with, but if spec5 is not ready untill singapore, then you have like 4 spec4's to your disposal which are inferior to spec5.
follow me still?
am i assuming this all right or not?
oh and finally, oil burning like it was fuel is banned 2018 season, which will undoubtedly also 'negatively' impact both Ferrari and Mercedes, which in it's turn could make Renault and Honda catch up easier, and thus would further increase ToroRosso's chances.
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