2026 Pecking order predictions

[GoranF1]

4 out 5 engine manufacturers will complain about Mercedes cheaters in Bahrain so early pecking order will be.

1.Redbull
2. Aston Martin
3. Ferrari
4. Mercedes
5. McLaren
6. Williams
7.Torro rosso
8. Renault
9.CNC Haas
10. Volkswagen 1.9 Tdi
11. Cadillac Big Mac

[emp]

It is so funny reading some of the wishful thinking here

I think all the Mercedes powered teams will be up front and scoring points, with Mercedes and Mclaren at the top followed by Ferrari and Red Bull.

Aston will be the big disappointment, Audi and Cadillac will have a lot of learning to do at the F1 level.

[FrukostScones]

1. Red Bull / McLaren
2. Mercedes / Ferrari
3. Haas / Alpine
4. Williams / RBVCARB
5. Audi
6. Cadillac

Aston Martin will fall into 1-4 category. Really crazy if they came up with another GP2 engine. We will see.

[Jambier]

Interesting that from Barcelona to Barhain it changes that much.
I think pecking order will change a EVERY race this year.

The big four will be ahead, and I assume depending of the track anyone can be in front.
Then for the midfield team same thing, Alpine looked nice, but depending on track...

And Aston Martin will be last until they can have an ICE that is working. They have 2 weeks left to finish the engine... I don't know what will happen if they have to start with this one which is 40km/h down on straits

[Badger]

1. Red Bull / McLaren
2. Mercedes / Ferrari
3. Haas / Alpine
4. Williams / RBVCARB
5. Audi
6. Cadillac
GP2: Aston

Like so?

I think what makes it hard to judge the pecking order beyond intepreting the times (which is possible to an extent) is we don't know in what stage of development many of these cars are. You have teams like McLaren saying they brought a later spec, basically what they will be racing with at the start of the year, but then you have other teams that plan to bring upgrades before Melbourne.

[Jambier]

1. Red Bull / McLaren
2. Mercedes / Ferrari
3. Haas / Alpine
4. Williams / RBVCARB
5. Audi
6. Cadillac
GP2: Aston

Like so?

I think what makes it hard to judge the pecking order beyond intepreting the times (which is possible to an extent) is we don't know in what stage of development many of these cars are. You have teams like McLaren saying they brought a later spec, basically what they will be racing with at the start of the year, but then you have other teams that plan to bring upgrades before Melbourne.

Indeed
But the stupid rules are making engine being homologated on March 1st, for 2026 to 2030...
So starting with a bad engine and you are stuck, until ADUO kicks in at least

[Badger]

1. Red Bull / McLaren
2. Mercedes / Ferrari
3. Haas / Alpine
4. Williams / RBVCARB
5. Audi
6. Cadillac
GP2: Aston

Like so?

I think what makes it hard to judge the pecking order beyond intepreting the times (which is possible to an extent) is we don't know in what stage of development many of these cars are. You have teams like McLaren saying they brought a later spec, basically what they will be racing with at the start of the year, but then you have other teams that plan to bring upgrades before Melbourne.

Indeed
But the stupid rules are making engine being homologated on March 1st, for 2026 to 2030...
So starting with a bad engine and you are stuck, until ADUO kicks in at least

You can homologate a new engine every year, there's no multi-year freeze. ADUO allows you to do in-season homologations instead of just between seasons.

[upsidedowntoast]

I'm going to wait until we hear the final decision on the compression ratio nonsense, but for now:

If the compression ratio trick is only banned from 2027 onwards then I'm thinking for 2026:
1. Mclaren -- idk, I just think they'll be better at delivering a complete package than Merc
2. Mercedes -- maybe their PU is just that scary, but if they still can't figure out suspensions and hot weather into this new reg set then that speaks to a deeper issue
3. Ferrari -- "this year will be our year" jokes aside, they've quietly been putting in consistent performance and reliability without issue throughout all of Barcelona and Bahrain. I do see some car control issues but Charles will do much better than Lewis.
4. Red Bull -- they've been doing amazing so far and I think, sandbagging or not, Toto did have a point in observing their very good power recovery and deployment. Plus Max just seems very prepared even if he hates the new regs. But I think they will inevitably run into some teething issues.
5. Williams/Alpine/VCARB/Haas -- I think despite missing Barcelona, Williams will do well.
6. Cadillac/Audi/Aston Martin -- the two new guys obviously, and then unfortunately it looks like Newey is not enough to save the Honda PU.

If there is a reg change that messes up the Mercedes PUs though then I predict Mclaren and Mercedes to drop to 3/4, since it's not as simple as an HP advantage -- it'll affect their fuel, cooling, and aerodynamic optimization.

I also would not be surprised if Mercedes drops to 3/4 even with their engine allowed for this year, if they once again messed up the rest of the car somehow.

[gearboxtrouble]

I'm going to wait until we hear the final decision on the compression ratio nonsense, but for now:

If the compression ratio trick is only banned from 2027 onwards then I'm thinking for 2026:
1. Mclaren -- idk, I just think they'll be better at delivering a complete package than Merc
2. Mercedes -- maybe their PU is just that scary, but if they still can't figure out suspensions and hot weather into this new reg set then that speaks to a deeper issue
3. Ferrari -- "this year will be our year" jokes aside, they've quietly been putting in consistent performance and reliability without issue throughout all of Barcelona and Bahrain. I do see some car control issues but Charles will do much better than Lewis.
4. Red Bull -- they've been doing amazing so far and I think, sandbagging or not, Toto did have a point in observing their very good power recovery and deployment. Plus Max just seems very prepared even if he hates the new regs. But I think they will inevitably run into some teething issues.
5. Williams/Alpine/VCARB/Haas -- I think despite missing Barcelona, Williams will do well.
6. Cadillac/Audi/Aston Martin -- the two new guys obviously, and then unfortunately it looks like Newey is not enough to save the Honda PU.

If there is a reg change that messes up the Mercedes PUs though then I predict Mclaren and Mercedes to drop to 3/4, since it's not as simple as an HP advantage -- it'll affect their fuel, cooling, and aerodynamic optimization.

I also would not be surprised if Mercedes drops to 3/4 even with their engine allowed for this year, if they once again messed up the rest of the car somehow.

This is a good list that I largely agree with your take. Ferrari and Red Bull are interchangeable imho with Ferrari seeming more difficult to set up and drive at the moment. do think Cadillac and Aston Martin will be the bottom 2 to start the season with Audi clear of them at the bottom of the Alpine/Williams/Haas/VCARB fight.

For me its like this after 2 days at Bahrain
McLaren +0.1s Mercedes +0.1s Red Bull = Ferrari +0.3s Alpine = Williams +0.1s Haas +0.1s VCARB + 0.3s Audi + 1.5s Cadillac = Aston Martin

If the Mercedes engined cars get a fuel flow or electrical deployment nerf then add 0.3s to all of them.

[f1316]

Is it possible that the Aston Martin Honda/Newey/Alonso super team will be slower (at least initially) than the brand new Cadillac team? That would be pretty humbling if so but you wonder if indeed Aston are 4 secs (as Stroll says) come Melbourne (big IF) whether Cadillac will actually be closer than that.

[gearboxtrouble]

Is it possible that the Aston Martin Honda/Newey/Alonso super team will be slower (at least initially) than the brand new Cadillac team? That would be pretty humbling if so but you wonder if indeed Aston are 4 secs (as Stroll says) come Melbourne (big IF) whether Cadillac will actually be closer than that.

I would have laughed at that a week ago but now I'm not so sure and it's not just about Aston being half baked. I think Aston can close that 4s gap to 3s by Melbourne just by running the engine normally and not in this cooling limited configuration but Cadillac might be within that themselves. The team looks far more capable than I'd originally assumed and while the car lacks downforce it seems easy to set up and drive. The Ferrari engine looks rock solid and everyone seems to be impressed with how they've come along as testing has progressed.

[Jambier]

Is it possible that the Aston Martin Honda/Newey/Alonso super team will be slower (at least initially) than the brand new Cadillac team? That would be pretty humbling if so but you wonder if indeed Aston are 4 secs (as Stroll says) come Melbourne (big IF) whether Cadillac will actually be closer than that.

I would have laughed at that a week ago but now I'm not so sure and it's not just about Aston being half baked. I think Aston can close that 4s gap to 3s by Melbourne just by running the engine normally and not in this cooling limited configuration but Cadillac might be within that themselves. The team looks far more capable than I'd originally assumed and while the car lacks downforce it seems easy to set up and drive. The Ferrari engine looks rock solid and everyone seems to be impressed with how they've come along as testing has progressed.

Indeed, and this year seems to be not about chassis, but engines only.
With 3s down on all the other due to the engine, Aston cannot do anything

[gearboxtrouble]

Is it possible that the Aston Martin Honda/Newey/Alonso super team will be slower (at least initially) than the brand new Cadillac team? That would be pretty humbling if so but you wonder if indeed Aston are 4 secs (as Stroll says) come Melbourne (big IF) whether Cadillac will actually be closer than that.

I would have laughed at that a week ago but now I'm not so sure and it's not just about Aston being half baked. I think Aston can close that 4s gap to 3s by Melbourne just by running the engine normally and not in this cooling limited configuration but Cadillac might be within that themselves. The team looks far more capable than I'd originally assumed and while the car lacks downforce it seems easy to set up and drive. The Ferrari engine looks rock solid and everyone seems to be impressed with how they've come along as testing has progressed.

Indeed, and this year seems to be not about chassis, but engines only.
With 3s down on all the other due to the engine, Aston cannot do anything

I don’t think you can blame Honda alone here. Yeah it looks like the engine isn’t as far along as the others but its also clearly limited by what they have to work with in terms of cooling and gearbox which are both Aston Martin items.

[dren]

And the car looks a handful to drive as well. They'll get there, it's just going to take time.

[Emag]

After the barcelona shakedown, if we go add in the "preparedness" on top of the recency bias, I would put them on these tiers :

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari/RedBull
3. RedBull/McLaren -> Only because of the "overheating" rumors, not sure where to keep RedBull. But they're honestly unsubstantiated, so probably on the same tier as Ferrari. I am just generally expecting McLaren to start "slow" compared to the previous top 4.
4. Alpine
5. Haas/RacingBulls
6. Cadillac/Audi

Aston Martin ??
Williams ???

I am still sticking to this prediction after the first test. Next week things could change as Ferrari, RedBull and Mercedes are all planning to bring upgrades. If McLaren sticks to their "word" and keeps the car the same for Australia, then I can definitely see them starting as the 4th package. For RedBull, I am inclined to put them on the same tier with Mercedes, but I will wait until next week. Perhaps we get some better more representative runs.