2016 Pecking Order Speculation and Fantasy Thread

[PlatinumZealot]

Nope. Not true.

The mercedes would need less cooling to the engine and electronics.

Also, the size of the intake does not dictate the flow resistance through the bodywork. The flow resistance through the bodywork is the real drag producer.

Anyway. My Pecking Order so Far.

1. Mercedes
. Gap
2. Ferrari
. Gap
3. Force India
4. Williams
5. RedBull
6. Toro Rosso
7. Mclaren
8. Haas
9. Sauber
10. Renualt
11. Marrusia

[godlameroso]

Does anyone have long stint times on medium tires for Mercedes?

[willmesquita]

My pecking after 3 days:



But I imagine Ferrari and Williams are at least 0,5s faster.

So, it will be: Mercedes - 0,4s - Ferrari - Force India - 0,7s - Williams - 0,3s - Toro Rosso - Red Bull - (Sauber 2015) - 0,5s - Haas - McLaren - Manor - Renault.

Better general image next week for sure.

[giantfan10]

My pecking after 3 days:

http://papayaorange.com.br/wp-content/u ... 1-diff.png

But I imagine Ferrari and Williams are at least 0,5s faster.

So, it will be: Mercedes - 0,4s - Ferrari - Force India - 0,7s - Williams - 0,3s - Toro Rosso - Red Bull - (Sauber 2015) - 0,5s - Haas - McLaren - Manor - Renault.

Better general image next week for sure.

pretty presentation but what exactly are the times based on? fastest lap on a certain tire? someone just randomly chose a time to represent certain teams? can you explain why Ferrari and williams are going to be 0.5 seconds faster? i know this is a fantasy and speculation thread but i'm still curious
am i right in guessing that those times are the times from testing on the 24th? what about the fast times on the previous days?

[willmesquita]

My pecking after 3 days:

http://papayaorange.com.br/wp-content/u ... 1-diff.png

But I imagine Ferrari and Williams are at least 0,5s faster.

So, it will be: Mercedes - 0,4s - Ferrari - Force India - 0,7s - Williams - 0,3s - Toro Rosso - Red Bull - (Sauber 2015) - 0,5s - Haas - McLaren - Manor - Renault.

Better general image next week for sure.

pretty presentation but what exactly are the times based on? fastest lap on a certain tire? someone just randomly chose a time to represent certain teams? can you explain why Ferrari and williams are going to be 0.5 seconds faster? i know this is a fantasy and speculation thread but i'm still curious
am i right in guessing that those times are the times from testing on the 24th? what about the fast times on the previous days?

Took the fastest lap each team did with each tyre, converted all to 'ultrasoft equivalent' (using a delta of 0.75s from each kind of tyre to the next below), converted all to 'quali equivalent' (using 0.035s to each lap above 3 laps).

My thoughts over Ferrari and Williams are based in Arrivabene comments last year saying he don't want Ferrari going 'light' at Fridays and in Williams approach of going heavy everytime they can last 2 years.

But it's a wild guess at this moment I know.

[Mclarettino]

I re-iterate, Mercedes will have increased the gap to Ferrari this season. Innovations in aerodynamics (serated barge boards, new type of S-duct), suspension (left right interconnected) and power unit (continuation of split turbo). Ferrari and the rest of the grid are in for a shock in Australia qualifying.

http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/merce ... 75584/?s=1

[Chene_Mostert]

I re-iterate, Mercedes will have increased the gap to Ferrari this season. Innovations in aerodynamics (serated barge boards, new type of S-duct), suspension (left right interconnected) and power unit (continuation of split turbo). Ferrari and the rest of the grid are in for a shock in Australia qualifying.

http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/merce ... 75584/?s=1

BTW there is no left-right interconnect, just hydraulic suspension. Get your fact's right mate

[willmesquita]

Talking about pecking order and stints:



If you look just for times, tyres and sizes of stints you may think that Ferrari closed the gap, but when you compare these times with the times from last tests, you see that Ferrari is much more close to real performance:

[Leendert82]

Talking about pecking order and stints:

http://papayaorange.com.br/wp-content/u ... mances.jpg

If you look just for times, tyres and sizes of stints you may think that Ferrari closed the gap, but when you compare these times with the times from last tests, you see that Ferrari is much more close to real performance:

http://papayaorange.com.br/wp-content/u ... -15-16.jpg

It was quite obvious that Force India has been doing qualifying runs (although still impressive) however where they stand compared the rest of the midfield team is still unknown. I think Williams and Redbull will certainly still improve, and Torro Rosso bringing allot of new parts on the car will also mean a step forward for them. I'm expecting things to be very tight in the midfield, with maybe Torro Rosso having an advantage in the beginning of the year, but later in the year they probably will slip to the back of the midfield teams.
Pecking order that I see at the moment.
1. Mercedes
------
2. Ferarri
-----------
3. Torro Rosso (6th during the second half)
4. Force India
5. Williams
6. Redbull (4th during the second half)
--------
7. McLaran
8. Renault
9. Sauber
10. Haas
11. Manor

[FrukostScones]

1.Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull
4. Force India
5. Toro Rosso
6. Williams
7. Sauber
8. Haas
9. Renault
10. McLaren
11. Manor

[iotar__]

Pecking order that I see at the moment.
1. Mercedes
------
2. Ferarri
-----------
3. Torro Rosso (6th during the second half)
4. Force India
5. Williams
6. Redbull (4th during the second half)
--------
7. McLaran
8. Renault
9. Sauber
10. Haas
11. Manor

Looks almost like my pre-test one except for Sauber-Renault order. I haven't followed testing closely so I'm not changing it and it's still too early - TR running some interim car (?) and with incomparable everything else.

[godlameroso]

I think the times are closer than they appear, pecking order is the same, but the gaps aren't as big as they seem. The first half of the year is going to be like 2012 all over again.

[flickerf1]

I think the times are closer than they appear, pecking order is the same, but the gaps aren't as big as they seem. The first half of the year is going to be like 2012 all over again.

Hmm. I'm not sure about this one. The regulations have stabilized, so it's not like 2012 where the regulations changed quite a bit leading to unpredictable races and unexpected results.

Though you might be right. The pecking order does appear to be closer. We'll just have to wait until Melbourne!

[ME4ME]

At this point it's incredibly hard to order Force India, Williams, Toro Rosso and Red Bull. Hopefully the 2nd test will give further clues, although i wouldn't mind if they all turn up with equal speed at Melbourne

[Leendert82]

Pecking order that I see at the moment.
1. Mercedes
------
2. Ferarri
-----------
3. Torro Rosso (6th during the second half)
4. Force India
5. Williams
6. Redbull (4th during the second half)
--------
7. McLaran
8. Renault
9. Sauber
10. Haas
11. Manor

Looks almost like my pre-test one except for Sauber-Renault order. I haven't followed testing closely so I'm not changing it and it's still too early - TR running some interim car (?) and with incomparable everything else.

TR was not able to get all the parts of the new car ready on time for the first test and they will bring those to the second test. Due to this, TR has never done any setup work or performance related work during the first test. I guess we will see during the second test what they are capable of.