ICE car sales now to end by 2030

[Just_a_fan]

Even today people buy refurbished cars like a Landrover or G-class with a chassis over 30 years old, with brand new powerunit and interior.

After 2030 those companies will see golden years.

I'll bet that there will be restrictions on what can be done, just as there are with classics these days. And in reality, the number of people that will be doing this with specialist vehicles will be small compared to the mass market.

[Just_a_fan]

Which is why electric cars have a high price to begin with. They will always be expensive, unless they find other means to make money through maintenance. It’s all down to business. And governments wont sit this one out either. They’ll get their slice as they did before and it will be just as large. It just might not be as apparent anymore as simply looking at fuel prices.

Government will just make up a tax or set a per-mile rate that is comparable to current costs.
For manufacturers, I'm sure it will be things like software updates, having got the Government to make up to date software a safety issue and thus mandatory.

"Yes sir, we've just issued a new safety update to change the shade of red in the brake lights to meet the new requirements"
"How much?"
"£1000 sir but that does also include an update of how the battery range is shown on the dash. There's a choice of colours now. Very nice it looks too."
"WHAT?????"
"The car will be illegal unless you update the software, sir, and we will have to put it on the illegal car register"

Ok, not quite like that but it won't be far off.

[henry]

The U.K. experience of taxation and plug-in hybrids will give governments pause for thought.

The U.K. government subsidised the purchase price of PHEVs and lowered the rate at which company employees were taxed on the benefit in kind they received from the use of the cars. They thought this would result in much more electric only use and consequently lower emissions.

Instead the majority of companies and employees took the tax benefits and used the cars, mainly Mitsubishis, without ever plugging them in. Result: more emissions rather than less.

[jjn9128]

It’s good to see that the fairy tale period will soon be over with the myth that EVs will be so cheap to run. They may result in less maintenance cost through higher efficiency, but the increase in electricity demands and the swing to more environment friendly sources (solar, wind etc) will lead to higher cost impacting everyone. Meanwhile governments will get just as much from milking commuters by taxing them as they have before. Only difference is that a large bulk will come from everyone on a per driven basis rather than those that use more fuel.

Car tax is, or at least partially is, driven by pollution, so a big 4x4 will have a higher tax band than a lightweight eco 2 seater. When/if EVs become the norm the biggest source of pollution on the car will be tyre and brake debris (less so brakes because most EV drivers barely use 'em) - so taxing per mile driven seems to make sense to me. More mileage = more pollution, it also goes the other way. Historic sports car owners who only drive every other Sunday wont get taxed for the whole year but pay for their journeys.

On solar and wind - their cost is coming down while coal and nuclear wholesale cost is going up.

[Tommy Cookers]

.... Car tax is, or at least partially is, driven by pollution, so a big 4x4 will have a higher tax band than a lightweight eco 2 seater. When/if EVs become the norm the biggest source of pollution on the car ......
On solar and wind - their cost is coming down while coal and nuclear wholesale cost is going up.

UK governments believe in (unilaterally) moving to 'everything zero-carbon' by 2050
heating decarbonisation (annually GSHP-electrifying 600,000 homes gas heating) is to start in 2028

convenient that electricity going to EVs is electricity unavailable for decarbonisation of heating
ground source heat pumps need far more ground than most houses have

[Big Tea]

Even today people buy refurbished cars like a Landrover or G-class with a chassis over 30 years old, with brand new powerunit and interior.

After 2030 those companies will see golden years.

I just had to post this here. 1982 ferrari

There is also one on the VW califonian I love

[Just_a_fan]

.... Car tax is, or at least partially is, driven by pollution, so a big 4x4 will have a higher tax band than a lightweight eco 2 seater. When/if EVs become the norm the biggest source of pollution on the car ......
On solar and wind - their cost is coming down while coal and nuclear wholesale cost is going up.

UK governments believe in (unilaterally) moving to 'everything zero-carbon' by 2050
heating decarbonisation (annually GSHP-electrifying 600,000 homes gas heating) is to start in 2028

convenient that electricity going to EVs is electricity unavailable for decarbonisation of heating
ground source heat pumps need far more ground than most houses have

CHP is a possibility, especially for new developments. The issue is the energy source. Likely to be biofuels which are "carbon neutral" (well, not really but it's good for the headlines). Of course, it means less land for food production but hey...

[strad]

Once they get us all into EVs they will slam the heck out of us with little bites here and there.

[Edax]

I wonder whether this is a smart idea in the current economic circumstances.

With this announcement it makes absolutely no sense to buy a petrol car today because it will depreciate like crazy. For electric the amount of models is still limited. Most people have to wait a couple of years before their favorite models become available.

So I guess most people will do like I do. Run my car a few years longer than planned, put some money aside, and start looking for a nice suitable EV to come out. If a lot of people do this, overall sales will be low for a couple of years.

[Just_a_fan]

I wonder whether this is a smart idea in the current economic circumstances.

With this announcement it makes absolutely no sense to buy a petrol car today because it will depreciate like crazy. For electric the amount of models is still limited. Most people have to wait a couple of years before their favorite models become available.

So I guess most people will do like I do. Run my car a few years longer than planned, put some money aside, and start looking for a nice suitable EV to come out. If a lot of people do this, overall sales will be low for a couple of years.

The cut off for new ICE cars is 10 years away. Most new cars are sold after 3 years when the PCP ends and they're returned to the company. Second hand/existing ICE cars aren't being banned at the same point, so new car sales today won't be affected at all.

[Greg Locock]

Sorry andres, your propaganda graph is misleading. The main growth in electricity generation is in fossil fuels. Renewables aren't even keeping up with the increase in demand, never mind making inroads into fossil fuels.Late edit - I found a better chart, FFs peak by 2030 if this is right.

https://www.pv-tech.org/images/made/ass ... _451_s.png

[Edax]

I wonder whether this is a smart idea in the current economic circumstances.

With this announcement it makes absolutely no sense to buy a petrol car today because it will depreciate like crazy. For electric the amount of models is still limited. Most people have to wait a couple of years before their favorite models become available.

So I guess most people will do like I do. Run my car a few years longer than planned, put some money aside, and start looking for a nice suitable EV to come out. If a lot of people do this, overall sales will be low for a couple of years.

The cut off for new ICE cars is 10 years away. Most new cars are sold after 3 years when the PCP ends and they're returned to the company. Second hand/existing ICE cars aren't being banned at the same point, so new car sales today won't be affected at all.

Didn’t realize leasing was big in the UK. That might make a difference. Here people buy cars and drive them for 5-10 years.

[Just_a_fan]

I wonder whether this is a smart idea in the current economic circumstances.

With this announcement it makes absolutely no sense to buy a petrol car today because it will depreciate like crazy. For electric the amount of models is still limited. Most people have to wait a couple of years before their favorite models become available.

So I guess most people will do like I do. Run my car a few years longer than planned, put some money aside, and start looking for a nice suitable EV to come out. If a lot of people do this, overall sales will be low for a couple of years.

The cut off for new ICE cars is 10 years away. Most new cars are sold after 3 years when the PCP ends and they're returned to the company. Second hand/existing ICE cars aren't being banned at the same point, so new car sales today won't be affected at all.

Didn’t realize leasing was big in the UK. That might make a difference. Here people buy cars and drive them for 5-10 years.

It's the only way most people can afford to drive new cars regularly, especially the more luxurious/premium makes.

I tend to buy second hand at about 50k miles and then add 100k miles before changing. At least for the last two or three, anyway. But at 20k+ miles a year that gets me a change every 4-5 years.

[nzjrs]

The cut off for new ICE cars is 10 years away. Most new cars are sold after 3 years when the PCP ends and they're returned to the company. Second hand/existing ICE cars aren't being banned at the same point, so new car sales today won't be affected at all.

Didn’t realize leasing was big in the UK. That might make a difference. Here people buy cars and drive them for 5-10 years.

It's the only way most people can afford to drive new cars regularly, especially the more luxurious/premium makes.

I tend to buy second hand at about 50k miles and then add 100k miles before changing. At least for the last two or three, anyway. But at 20k+ miles a year that gets me a change every 4-5 years.

There must be objective statistics for this, but my subjective impression upon moving to the UK was how old the average car was compared to Austria/Germany. Maybe the distribution is different?

[henry]

Didn’t realize leasing was big in the UK. That might make a difference. Here people buy cars and drive them for 5-10 years.

It's the only way most people can afford to drive new cars regularly, especially the more luxurious/premium makes.

I tend to buy second hand at about 50k miles and then add 100k miles before changing. At least for the last two or three, anyway. But at 20k+ miles a year that gets me a change every 4-5 years.

There must be objective statistics for this, but my subjective impression upon moving to the UK was how old the average car was compared to Austria/Germany. Maybe the distribution is different?

Average age 8yrs
Average age at scrappage 14 years.