2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix - Baku, Sep 19-21

[pantherxxx]

I predict a Verstappen victory, since RB21 works well with low DF setup, especially after the Monza update. At Monza, Red Bull showed they can trim their wings right down, run very low drag, and still keep the car stable and fast in braking/traction zones.

In Baku most of the middle-sector corners are slow 90° turns. At low speed, downforce doesn’t contribute as much (mechanical grip from the tyres is more important). So trimming wing levels doesn’t hurt lap time as badly as it would at a track full of fast corners. The run from Turn 16 all the way down to Turn 1 is over 2 km flat-out, nearly 20+ seconds at full throttle. A car with lower drag gains a big chunk of time here.

[Lasssept]

[Vettel165]

My prediction
Q3
1. Max
2. Leclerc
3. Piastri
4. Norris
5. Russel

Race
1. Max
2. Norris
3. Leclerc
4. Piastri
5. Russel

[venkyhere]

My prediction
Q3
1. Max
2. Leclerc
3. Piastri
4. Norris
5. Russel

Race
1. Max
2. Norris
3. Leclerc
4. Piastri
5. Russel

Let's just say I will not predict the Q or R order as I have a 100% failure rate from doing so previously. Despite that, I will go out on a limb and predict that there will be :
1. Two safety cars in the Race, one from someone putting it in the wall, and one from either Ocon or Lawson (junior Kmag) running into the side of someone else
2. Colapinto will continue to maintain his 100% record of blocking someone on a fast lap by hugging the racing line while on a slow lap himself, during FP1/2/3/Q. Either he or his race engineer are 'thick', never seen such a person before, not even Mazepin was this disruptive.

[dren]

Ferrari looking pretty good here. Mclaren duo pushing too hard for a lap time?

[search]

it's a bit too cold for the McLaren, I guess, so they need to push to get the tires to work. May improve with more grip coming in.

The medium looked like a good qualifying tire today.

[matt_b]

I ain't falling for Ferrari nailing the set up today in these conditions, Red Bull will do their usual post Friday turnaround and be on the front row come tomorrow and McLaren will suddenly be planted and be up there too, we've seen it too many times this season

[venkyhere]

Didn't watch FP1 & FP2 , so have no idea which car(s) 'looked stable/on rails' and which ones were 'at the teetering edge'. Requesting someone who actually watched the sessions to kindly shed some 'qualitative info' about this....

Can't glean anything just by looking at data alone, as fuel loads, engine modes etc come into play.
However, from the fastest laps of the top players from FP2, saw something strange :



Not sure whether I should read something into this (hiding pace by delaying/not-doing upshifts w.r.t others)

[Wouter]

[venkyhere]

Did a crude rule of thumb analysis, having not watched FP1/FP2 :



Thoughts please....

[Matt-A]

Red Bull should win this, and most of the following races, now having finally worked put how to get the best of the fastest car in the paddock.

[BorisTheBlade]

Red Bull should win this, and most of the following races, now having finally worked put how to get the best of the fastest car in the paddock.

While your post sounds overly confident, you have a point. Especially Baku is not so different from Monza, so their good form should translate here as well. What happens further down the road remains to be seen. My guess is, that in terms of points Ferrari should be able to be 2nd in the Constructor's due to two regular Points Scorers.

[Farnborough]

Didn't watch FP1 & FP2 , so have no idea which car(s) 'looked stable/on rails' and which ones were 'at the teetering edge'. Requesting someone who actually watched the sessions to kindly shed some 'qualitative info' about this....

Can't glean anything just by looking at data alone, as fuel loads, engine modes etc come into play.
However, from the fastest laps of the top players from FP2, saw something strange :

https://i.ibb.co/j9ZSxS53/Max-delaying- ... 2-Baku.png

Not sure whether I should read something into this (hiding pace by delaying/not-doing upshifts w.r.t others)

Perhaps slightly "longer" ratios 7/8th to give overspeed with rear wing open and not be quite so limited as others in drs overtake scenario. Could get them past, relatively, rev limited competitors on this long straight.

[collindsilva]

Red Bull should win this, and most of the following races, now having finally worked put how to get the best of the fastest car in the paddock.

While your post sounds overly confident, you have a point. Especially Baku is not so different from Monza, so their good form should translate here as well. What happens further down the road remains to be seen. My guess is, that in terms of points Ferrari should be able to be 2nd in the Constructor's due to two regular Points Scorers.

If Monza and Baku are similar tracks, why are AMR struggling...

[search]

Usually permanent tracks and street courses differ pretty much due to grip level etc, no matter the layout. I would compare Baku more to Montreal, although there's a bit less downforce used this weekend.

The tire situation for Qualifying is quite special, by the way. Most clearly seem to believe that the medium is the faster tire, but it doesn't really seem to be set in stone.