I would be very surprised if anyone can challenge the McLaren on a mixed corner, medium speed circuit like this. And last year Verstappen in Qualifying was beaten by a Haas.
Yep...that track is like painted for McLaren. As mentioned by another poster...without dumbass by McL, there will not be anything to see but a glory run of the mighty MCL39.
The question is, is the McLaren fast enough to outrun their poor strategy?
I fear they are fast enough to outrun even being last after the start....
But this is a good point: Is there any chance to screw up the strategy?
Last year it was a clear 1 stop. Any change on this or again 1 stop nothing else?
Last year anyone stopping after lap 13 was going to the end on this tire. Do we expect similar durability? That would also remove all chances to screw up with a SC as you can always take the free stop.
Compared to last year, car characteristics have changed - for example, McLaren was not the market leader in high speed (Redbull was) , Redbull was poor in slow corners, Mercedes was good only with low track temps - all of which has changed this year. Plus, they have all improved their cars, especially Mclaren, who have turned a great car from 2024 into a mega-monster in 2025. The McL39 has no weakness, NIL. It's not 2nd best in any corner type, and even in straightline speed (the only reason they are not topping Vmax numbers is because they are choosing to do so, by adding bigger wings than others) - we saw in LasVegas how they did not have a Vmax deficiency at all, when they chose to run a lowDF wing like Ferrari/Mercedes.
Hence, any track, any temp, any condition, the McL39 is a definite contender for pole and win. Not because 'they did well last year' - it's because they have made a car that can be the very best on any track for this year.
Max P1, Norris P2, Piastri P3. Norris fumbles the start, Piastri divebombs T1 to overtake Verstappen, Verstappen evades contact and Piastri hits Norris. 2 mercs pass by and the MCl's are split by Leclerc
I would be very surprised if anyone can challenge the McLaren on a mixed corner, medium speed circuit like this. And last year Verstappen in Qualifying was beaten by a Haas.
If Max is fast on the long straight... Macca will have to rely on the undercut. And let's watch them fumble the undercut with their drivers! lol
Undercut Scenario..
Max leading
Norris Second
Piastri third
Norris still wins, but should undercut Max, Piastri chase the couter-strategy and run Max off the road if needed.
Max Leading
Piastri Second
Lando Distant third
Clear the field spread, Pit Lando, Piastri Follows Max into the pits. Chases.
Piastri Lead
Max Second
Lando Third
Piastri knows he's not winning this is Lando's car is still breathing... but he Needs to stay in front of Max. He has to do a Lewis and back up Max into Piastri and hope they both crash!
