AR3-GP wrote: ↑03 Jan 2026, 12:09
"Next year it won't be about the first picture of the season, it won't be all about the classification of Australia, it will be a lot about the capacity for quick development," Vasseur cautioned. "The season won't be over in Australia for sure, it doesn't matter if we are P1 or P10, but it will be a long way until the end, it will be a long way for everybody."
https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/fred ... /10787186/
Honestly, I disagree. P10 would be a disaster. You can't have that if you want to be a serious contender. You have to be right there from the get go. McLaren proved in 2024 that starting slow is costly. And they weren't even that slow to begin with. It's just not easy to make up lost points, unless you're confident a later upgrade will completely eclipse the competition, or you're so confident in your execution that you know you will deliver P1s every single race the moment the car becomes competitive. RedBull this year, further proof. If you start slow, the championship becomes a fever dream. And RedBull has a literal alien consistency machine driving for them.
Historically speaking, what's the last reg cycle shift which saw a dominant showing of a team in round 1 and then didn't have that team either competitive throughout the entire season or flat out jut winning both championships? Maybe 2012? But I wouldn't consider 2012 a big reg cycle shift from 2011 to be honest. McLaren still was very fast though, they just had an inconsistency & tire wear problem and (most significantly) horrible reliability. They were still probably the fastest car on average throughout the season.
2022 saw Mercedes start on a rough patch. They couldn't turn the season around.
2017 saw RedBull start very slow (I remember this year in particular, I was very surprised with how "vanilla" their car looked in round 1 having Newey and everything). It took them way too long to get that car in a competitive position after starting ~1 second per lap slower than Ferrari and Mercedes.
2014 had Ferrari starting absolutely in an abysmal manner. Maybe even worse than 2009. Couldn't turn it around. (and 2009 is an example in itself).
Anyway, point of the matter is, you don't want to be in a position where you're chasing a lot of laptime from round 1. Is it possible to overturn? Yes, it is, but if your goal is fighting for championships, it will be exponentially harder.