What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

[aero expert 807]

It's becoming a two horse race,and its Vettel's championship to lose.

[WhiteBlue]

It's becoming a two horse race,and its Vettel's championship to lose.

That seems to be the consent of the betting money. Why do we think that is happening? Vettel has the momentum at the moment and Ferrari seems to loose the development race. Red Bull's DDRS is working nicely and Ferrari do not seem to have one. Are there other reasons?

[raymondu999]

Another reason would be that Alonso just had a dnf, and Vettel a dominant grand chelem.

[Cylinder]

Alonso has clearly been the driver of the season thus far, without any question. It's simply down to the car, if Ferrari can gain performance and have a race winning car, Alonso can do massive damage, if not, then it's damage limitation and he will end up losing the championship. But quite simply, this season he has cemented his ranking as the number one driver in the sport, every single poll on all other forums and the driver rankings I have seen back this up.

[WhiteBlue]

Another reason would be that Alonso just had a dnf, and Vettel a dominant grand chelem.

Yeah, but if you look at the underlying reason for the DNF you see that the Ferrari is too slow to make the front row and therefore Alonso has a higher chance to get creamed in a starting accident.

[Cylinder]

Another reason would be that Alonso just had a dnf, and Vettel a dominant grand chelem.

Yeah, but if you look at the underlying reason for the DNF you see that the Ferrari is too slow to make the front row and therefore Alonso has a higher chance to get creamed in a starting accident.

Exactly, it's that simple. The vettel thing is one of the most ridiculous hype jobs of recent years, where was this guy when Red Bull didnt have the fastest car? Oh yea...he was going life and death with Mark Webber and being outqualified. fair enough, he has been unlucky with DNF's this season, but this season has shown what many have known all along, he's a top 3 driver, but i'm an Alonso fan and Iv'e never seen a thing to make me believe this guy has ever been the fastest driver in the sport....ever. Exhaust blown diffusers, pivot wings, flex wings, supposed adjustable ride height controls etc etc. that's when he puts in the 'senna-like' laps that had people thinking he was as good as senna over one lap.....when his super gizmos didnt work during the 1st half of season he looked nothing like the best driver in the sport.

[Steven]

At Japan, the Ferrari was clearly no match to RBR, but then again, Alonso was struck by bad luck with the yellow flag in quali that put him in a more vulnerable starting position. Then again, the Ferrari was better than McLaren, and Alonso could likely have finished on the podium if he managed stay out of trouble.

It's really difficult to predict performances at the next races, so anything is still possible, but as said, it will all depend on the relative performances, and if Lotus, Sauber or McLaren can get/stay in the mix.

I'd love to see Alonso get this one, but the odds to me look more in favour of Vettel after his double win.
Also, as mentioned before, it's likely a two-horse race now, as in the last 2 GP's, only Vettel really managed to cut into the Spaniard's advantage. Charted: http://twitter.yfrog.com/od4gnfp

[Raptor22]

errrrm no. Where was Vettel when RedBull didn't have a fast car? At BMW, testing their cars..

Then he was smoking his team amte at Torro Rosso, where he also wong their one and only race before being promoted to the Red Bull squad where he beat his much more experienced team mate pretty early on.

Alonso has been pretty good all year too but good fortune has also smiled upon him regularly. I wouldn't call him the best by a head and shoulder.
Hamilton owned him in his first season of F1. He is not showing the absolute dominance required to say that he is by far the best.
Yes Vettel has had good cars but just because Adrian Newey designed it does not automatically make it the best. The McLaren is designed by a very stable group of people who have produced very fast cars.

[turbof1]

So we now came to the point where we have 2 drivers and 5 races. We can't say anymore Alonso has had all the luck and Vettel all the bad luck after Japan. Both had better races and both had worse races. For those 2 it is back to square one. Lets hope Ferrari makes their car faster and Red Bull makes their car more reilable; if that happens we are in for a big, big show!

[Cylinder]

errrrm no. Where was Vettel when RedBull didn't have a fast car? At BMW, testing their cars..

Then he was smoking his team amte at Torro Rosso, where he also wong their one and only race before being promoted to the Red Bull squad where he beat his much more experienced team mate pretty early on.

Alonso has been pretty good all year too but good fortune has also smiled upon him regularly. I wouldn't call him the best by a head and shoulder.
Hamilton owned him in his first season of F1. He is not showing the absolute dominance required to say that he is by far the best.
Yes Vettel has had good cars but just because Adrian Newey designed it does not automatically make it the best. The McLaren is designed by a very stable group of people who have produced very fast cars.

Was that when Vettel was 'smoking' the Outstanding talent known as............Sebastian Bourdais? What's next "He won in a torro rosso!!!!" - a torro rosso that was so fast in the wet even Bourdais got it onto the second row of Monza.

Heard it all before, Vettel is a top driver, but that's where it ends, life and death struggles with Mark Webber, a couple of Quali's he didnt even make it into Q3 and the list goes on, when the car is a pole position car, he can take it lights to flag as well as anyone, but the thought of this guy being a 3 times straight world champion when he isn't even a top 2 driver in the sport in my view is a bit much. Never ever faster over a single lap than Hamilton in a million years.......ever, I say that as an Alonso fan and Alonso HIMSELF said vettel is not in Hamilton's league because the kid doesnt look like superman when Newey hasnt bolted on the flexi wings and magic diffusers, how can this kid go from being as good as senna over a lap, to struggling to beat webber and even at times get into Q3........give me a break.

That's my opinion, not fact of course.

And Hamilton never owned anything other than Ron Dennis's jockstrap, 2007 is till this date the best season of his career and Alonso matched him for points and race wins, in a team that did not exactly 'warm to him'.

[Raptor22]

Ok those are your views and you're entitled to your polarisation.
Up until the knock on the head and then the "Fernando is quicker, do you understand" gates for Massa he pretty much had the measure of Alonso. So what's your point? All the great drivers have had their team mates beat them on occasion.

Stewart
Lauda
Prost
Senna,
Schumacher
Hakkinen
Alonso and
Vettel.


What really matters is which of them made the best use of their equipment and as far as I know, Vettel is 2-0 up on Webber in the WDC standings... same car
He is 2 -2 to Alonso at a younger age and with less races under his belt.

Being in a Newey car does not guarantee success. Just ask Kimi....
The only McLaren driver to win the WDC in a NEwey car is Hakkinen. Up until 2006 a certain Mr Byrne was very successful at designing race winning cars. Th only driver ever to win a Championship in his cars is Michael Schumacher.
Kimi's championship was in a Costa penned car, Byrne was a consultant on the project.

Alonso supporters seem to think hat he is carrying a handicap in that Ferrari and the other Ferrari's he has driven. Yet the core of the engineering team that penned Schumacher's cars, Kimi's cars are all stll there. Tombasis is still there. Its race pace is pretty good and indicative that its not a shyte box. Alonso's achievement are no more extraordinary than Vettel's or any other double world champion.

[Cylinder]

Ok those are your views and you're entitled to your polarisation.
Up until the knock on the head and then the "Fernando is quicker, do you understand" gates for Massa he pretty much had the measure of Alonso.

Lol, no, going into Germany, Alonso had a sizeable points margin over Massa and was clearly the better driver and Ferrari's only hope of the WDC, so No, massa did not have the measure of Alonso.

What really matters is which of them made the best use of their equipment and as far as I know, Vettel is 2-0 up on Webber in the WDC standings... same car
He is 2 -2 to Alonso at a younger age and with less races under his belt.

That means sweet mary jane, he is only a two time world champion because he has had the best car in Formula One from Mid 2009 to 2012 and when I say best, the Red bulls in 2010 and 2011 were two of the most dominant cars of recent memory, they were far superior as a whole to the Mclaren and certainly the Ferrari, Vettel had some much extra downforce provided by the EBD he was able to open the DRS way earlier than anyone else, Red Bull had the Q3 super engine mapping which they turned on which is the reason Vettel was always finding an extra 0.3-0.8 in qualifying.

Nothing to do with him the driver being superior, when the magic gizmos didnt work and he had to mix it up with Hamilton and Alonso and actually race other drivers, you saw him struggling to outqualify webber, you saw him struggle to get it into Q3, you saw no more ''sennna like magic q3 laps''....simple as that and i'm sorry to say that I sincerely hope this kid isn't stupid enough to sign a contract and come and drive for us here at Ferrari, because we dont have super Newey Like gizmos and Alonso is going to end this kid once and for all.....Alonso has no problem with this kid coming to ferrari because he fears NOTHING about him whatsoever.........Hamilton, different story, Alonso knows Hamilton is the real fastest in the sport, not the most complete...but the fastest and he's the only driver Alonso would ever worry about, period.

[Ray]

....All the great drivers have had their team mates beat them on occasion.

...
...
...
...
Schumacher
...
.... and
....

Schumacher? You're not serious are you? He never had a teammate that was treated equally, least of all in Ferrari. Comparing Alonso to Schumacher in terms of teammate strength, or even Vettel alongside Webber, is the most delusional thing I've ever heard. Schumacher wouldn't allow anyone to get close to him, Alonso has beaten every teammate he's had on merit with the exception of Lewis, and we all know Lewis was the favorite of Ron. (nothing, absolutely nothing, wrong with that either.) Alonso has got preference on Massa simply because he's miles ahead in every respect, it would be a very stupid thing to do treating them equally. Massa will never, and has never been on par with Alonso, and never would be in equal equipment. If Alonso and Ferrari lose both championships this season, the majority of the blame should be laid at Massa's feet. I love Massa, I think he's a great guy, but he simply has failed to do everything that Ferrari expected of him for this season. He will have caused Ferrari and Alonso to lose both championships simply because he's done nothing but be a spectacular failure this year. He needs to leave, and the sooner the better.

I can't believe anyone doesn't see the genius of Alonso. We would be talking about a four-time World Drivers Championship winner but for about 10 points. If he had those 10 points, and won this years championship, we'd be talking about a five time WDC in Alonso. Vettel is a two-time champ, possibly getting a third, but it's blatantly obvious that without a Newey designed dominant car, Vettel is a nobody. He doesn't have the ability to consistently hoist a car farther up the grid than it should be like Lewis, Alonso and Kimi are capable of doing. Without a dominant car, Vettel is a mid-pack driver at best. (I like Vettel a lot, but I know reality when I see it.)

What really matters is which of them made the best use of their equipment and as far as I know, Vettel is 2-0 up on Webber in the WDC standings... same car
He is 2 -2 to Alonso at a younger age and with less races under his belt.

...Vettel had some much extra downforce provided by the EBD he was able to open the DRS way earlier than anyone else, Red Bull had the Q3 super engine mapping which they turned on which is the reason Vettel was always finding an extra 0.3-0.8 in qualifying.

Here here. Vettel was able to keep the DRS open through corners other cars wouldn't dream of being capable of doing. 130R last year for example. No one else was able to do that. Having a car that fast/dominant is the reason he's won back to back WDC, not his talent. Whenever something goes wrong, or it isn't balancing that razors edge, he's nowhere.

[Raptor22]

AH selective reading plays its hand.

I said all the great drivers have had a teammate beat them on occasion. Go back and READ.
Senna had Berger beat hi on occasion. Senna was also in the best car most of his career. Save for the year at Toleman, he was always in competitive machinery. In 88,and 90 he was in utterly dominant machinery, while 91 defined his talent as back still he was in a great race car that competed against a superior but unreliable foe.

Schumacher may have never has a teammate his equal, but he was beaten by them on occasion. Again similarly to Senna he was in reasonably competitive cars from 91 through to 93 and he earned 2 wins in those cars against overwhelmingly better machinery.

Alonso earned hsi two championships in a car that was built for him in every way. Renault found a way to make the Michelins work and they built a car for Alonso that suited his style on the tyre. Fisichella had no chance but he did beat him on occasion. The Renault on Michelins was a much better package than a Ferrari on Bridgestones for most circuits. He won two WDC in a car that was the class of the field, much like the WDC before him.

Vettel at least has a teammate who is allowed to race him. Neither Schumacher nor Alonso nor Senna's team mates (with exception of Prost) was allowed to race them. They were undisputed number ones in their teams. Vettel is racing against a team mate who is his equal in terms of team hierarchy. Whether he has the best car is debatable. Webber has always been fast. At Jaguar, Williams and RedBull he was always formidably fast. Anyone remember where he finished in his debut GP?

As for Vettel underperforming when the car is not 100%. Well thats the nature of the modern rules. Ten years ago a driver could make set up changes and tweak the car after qualifying to get a competitive set up for the race. Today if conditions change i.e. 10 degrees celcius, that plays against the car that had it right during qualifying and no changes can be made to correct the set up. One of the strategic things Ferrari has done the last few years is chase a race set up. They chose to sacrifice qualifying and rather focus on race set up. RedBull strategy is too lead from the front so they chase a qualifying set up that will work for the first half of the race. Sure the RedBull has had some interesting tricks but you're living in a dream world if you think the Ferrari doesn't have them too or the McLaren or the Mercedes. Ferrari pioneered flexiwings!! Do you think they forgot how to build them? McLaren built some of the best exhaust blown diffusers. Do yo think they forgot how to built them?

Quite simply , Vettel currently is the best driver out there. He uses the same tools as the others and is able to exploit them further. That's why he wins races while Webber fights with Ferrari's and McLaren piloted by drivers unable to maximise their machinery. Like Senna and Prost and Schumacher and CLark and Stewart, he uses the tools given to him by his engineers better than anyone else. It is that simple. There is no conspiracy.

[Ray]

So Webber forgetting how to get a Formula 1 car off the starting line for an entire season shows they have equal equipment? Please. Vettel is in the exact situation that Schumacher and Alonso before him were/are in. He's the number one driver, and if you think otherwise you're delusional. RBR don't care if they both finish at the top, but they do care that Vettel maintains his lead. I can't think of a single example where Vettel was told to stay behind Webber once. Also, the Renault was far from the dominant car when Alonso won his WDC, he was pushed the whole way, or the POS McLaren Kimi drove blew up. Don't forget that the TMD Renault had inside the car was ruled an aerodynamic device. Something that gave them an incredibly clever advantage was taken away from them through political means.

Who the hell said anything about a conspiracy? Vettel is a midpack driver when his RBR isn't dominant. That's stone cold fact. He cannot and does not drive a car outside it's limits and finish ahead of where it should be. Alonso, Kimi and Lewis are the only current drivers that can and do. Whenever the RBR isn't the class of the field, Vettel is in the midpack looking as ordinary as he is. The only reason people like you think he's so fantastic is because when you have a car that has been as utterly dominant as his, there's no pressure for mistakes to come out. Simple fact is that you see Vettel winning in an utterly dominant car and you think he's the best. When he's on the backfoot, he's no where.