godlameroso wrote: ↑11 May 2021, 01:14
Food for thought, in Portimao, both Hamilton and Verstappen used the hard tires, easy one stop, no pace difference to the medium, Verstappen could stay within touching distance of Hamilton ~5 seconds. In Bahrain, Hamilton won because he used the Hard tire. In Barcelona he won because he used the more tire performance friendly strategy. What was the difference for Verstappen, in both Bahrain and Barcelona? Fear of using the hard tire, the tire that let him do the one stop in Portimao. The same tire was in play in Barcelona, even if the hard was a little slower, it would have made the one stop work, just like it did for Hamilton. Verstappen spent too much time nursing his tires, trying to make a one stop work with the medium was the wrong call, the hard would have done it with no fear of thermal degradation, which is what Verstappen was fighting.
The brutal honest truth, selfishness cost him the win. He tried to beat Mercedes by himself, he called himself into the pits, and he decided to nurse the tires trying to make it to the end. The Red Bull pit crew can do sub 2 second pit stops, they're better than Mercedes in that regard. That's huge, that speed difference will prevent a one lap undercut, and Verstappen didn't have faith in his crew. He was a sitting duck, and strategy could have made a difference had he not tried to win on his own.
Had he copied Hamilton's strategy, the pit crew could have made a difference, he made a quick call and the team wasn't ready, he didn't rely on the team the second time and that's an experience thing. Even if he got stuck behind Bottas, he should have pitted again, he underestimated the power of the undercut, and again, had fear of using the hard tire, even though it proved itself quite durable in Portimao. Turn 10 turned out to be a rear tire killer due to high thermal loads it placed on them, the hard tire would have coped well with that, much better than anticipated.
Oh well, no use dwelling on the past, Monaco is an excellent chance for a 1-2.
Nobody used the hard tire in Barcelona, and it surprises me how you think the hard would have been a good option.
Logically the hard would have been slower than the softs, and I don't see how he would have been able to keep Lewis behind him after that first stop. On those softs Max had to up his pace to keep Lewis behind. His laptime decreases by 1 second as soon as Lewis was back on his tail. In those laps Max had to ask a lot from his tires. If he would have been on Hard tires, he would have had to ask a lot more to keep Lewis behind. That would have burned the tires and maybe not make them last till the end. But I don't think he would have been able to keep Lewis behind. So that would have lost him the race aswell.
Your brutal honest truth is a bit off I guess. The strategy wasn't determined by Max, but is always a team decision. Max didn't pit himself, but misunderstood the timing of the scheduled pitstop.
An undercut is usually worth at least a second (for Lewis it would have have been 2 seconds each lap, just look at the lap charts), it's very difficult/impossible to overcome that difference with a pitstop unless the other team --- up. So it's not realistic to trust on the pitstop speed difference to counter an undercut.
Getting stuck behing Bottas after the first would have cost him a lot more time, time Max never would have had to spare. That would have certainly lost him the race.
Max couldn't counter Lewis his strategy because he had no new second set of mediums, and softs wouldn't have made it 'till the end. Stopping at a later stage for softs would have been possible and I think overtaking Bottas wouldn't be such a problem considering the tire advantage, but I doubt Max would have gotten close to Lewis, let alone be able to overtake him for the win.
I think the only chance Max had would have been countering the strategy of Lewis, but that possibility was lost due a lack of medium tires. If anything made Max lose the win (other than the Mercedes just being the quicker car) it was the choice to have only 1 set of mediums for the race.