Silly Season 2018/2019

[Jolle]

With Hamilton to Ferrari, I'm a bit on the fence (for 2021 that is).

When Schumacher went to Ferrari, he was part of the core team of Benetton that moved over to build, together with PM who were leaving McLaren. It was a big project with the aim to change formula one, which they did.
Hamilton isn't part of this kind of small team that build Mercedes like Benetton had in the early nineties, Mercedes (and Mclaren when they were part of Daimler) is more about structure then specific people. Verstappen in a few years, together with Horner and his team would make more sense.

Liberty and big sponsors might have a bigger problem in 2021: Kimi probably retires at the end of 2020 and if Hamilton takes 2019 and 2020, there will only be Hamilton and Vettel as world champions. For marketing Hamilton (and Vettel to a lesser degree) have to stay on until Verstappen and/or Leclerc become world champion. Just like Alonso took over from Schumacher. last time F1 was without world champion was in 1994 and they lured Mansell back into the sport to do some races.

So, I think Philip Morris will keep Vettel next to Leclerc for 2021 and 2022 (as long as they extend their contract with Ferrari) and the same for Hamilton at Mercedes where they will move mountains to get Verstappen for 2021 (if they aren't doing that already, a corporation like Daimler won't wait until next year to find out what they are going to do)

Other possibility of course, with the Concorde agreement ending, RedBull might leave and sell their team to PM who are out of contract with Ferrari and we'll have Marlboro Honda again... Ferrari would go back to the years of Alesi and Berger with Leclerc and Bottas, etc etc etc...

[Big Tea]

I think Hamilton’s legendary status is already secured. No need to drive for Ferrari.

Agreed, he'd just damage his reputation - he's best to retire a Mercedes hero.

Also,Ferrari does not have the glitz it used to have (except with die hard Ferrari fans ).

The rest of the world does not care that much that Ferrari were there from day one, or who used to drive for them.
The glory years from 99 to 04 were terrific (I almost became a fan myself ) but probably 50% of the people who watch today were not even interested in F1 then. Since then Red Bull Renault and Mercedies have at least equal kudos to them and to those in their early 20's or teens it is Merc who have the WoW factor.

I am not posting this to wind up Ferrari fans, far from it, I get you and could easily be one of you, but the people who say 'he has to do a stint at Ferrari' are like me and are dinosaurs by the standards of today.

I really can not see Lewis leaving Merc as long as they are still in F1, why would he?


Edit.

When Schumacher went to Ferrari, it was mostly because they had assembled the super team, but when you look around at what his options were, it was a slam dunk anyway.

[NathanOlder]

That does not explain why it must be Bottas. You can find plenty of those drivers.

But all the other things in your post are assumptions, so I don't think they really must do anything. I think that they have much more data than you have, so I think they do what they MUST do but that may be a completely other way. Bulding an equal car to Mercedes would be one thing (over a whole season, not just a few races, like in 17/18) they could do but that is noch easy because Mercedes does a really good job.

For a start Valterri would bring a lot of sensitive info with him, the way the Merc team works, things they have been doing, maybe even things in the pipline.

As Izzy pointed out, Valterri is a perfect number 2, Solid fast reliable safe. Perfect for a team mate to the growing improving Leclerc.

Who would you suggest would be better for Ferrari to put next to Charles?

[ME4ME]

I wonder if we'll see Hulkenberg at Haas next year.

In my mind Mercedes will continue with Hamilton and Bottas. Ocon to Renault and Russels to stay at Williams. I think now that the RB15 is more stable Gasly will perform better and will be kept for 2019. With Mclaren having confirmed their driver line-up, that doesn't leave Hulkenberg that many options. I think Gunther Steiner has had enough - Grosjean will be out the door. It's not a great seat but it is what it is.

This is obviously based on Renault prefering Ocon over Hulkenberg, but concidering how the season is unfolding I think they likely go for a change.

[djos]

I doubt Renault would give up on Hulk that easily and I also don't think Hulk would leave a factory team for a B Team who can't figure out how their tires work.

[Pyrone89]

I think Hamilton’s legendary status is already secured. No need to drive for Ferrari.

Agreed, he'd just damage his reputation - he's best to retire a Mercedes hero.

Disagree, with winning a WDC at Ferrari he can show that he is not just a very good but 1x WDC who got a bunch of free titles and wins in the most dominant team to ever grace the sport.

[Pyrone89]

That does not explain why it must be Bottas. You can find plenty of those drivers.

But all the other things in your post are assumptions, so I don't think they really must do anything. I think that they have much more data than you have, so I think they do what they MUST do but that may be a completely other way. Bulding an equal car to Mercedes would be one thing (over a whole season, not just a few races, like in 17/18) they could do but that is noch easy because Mercedes does a really good job.

For a start Valterri would bring a lot of sensitive info with him, the way the Merc team works, things they have been doing, maybe even things in the pipline.

As Izzy pointed out, Valterri is a perfect number 2, Solid fast reliable safe. Perfect for a team mate to the growing improving Leclerc.

Who would you suggest would be better for Ferrari to put next to Charles?

You can get a lot more and better info far cheaper by hiring one of the engineers

[NathanOlder]

That does not explain why it must be Bottas. You can find plenty of those drivers.

But all the other things in your post are assumptions, so I don't think they really must do anything. I think that they have much more data than you have, so I think they do what they MUST do but that may be a completely other way. Bulding an equal car to Mercedes would be one thing (over a whole season, not just a few races, like in 17/18) they could do but that is noch easy because Mercedes does a really good job.

For a start Valterri would bring a lot of sensitive info with him, the way the Merc team works, things they have been doing, maybe even things in the pipline.

As Izzy pointed out, Valterri is a perfect number 2, Solid fast reliable safe. Perfect for a team mate to the growing improving Leclerc.

Who would you suggest would be better for Ferrari to put next to Charles?

You can get a lot more and better info far cheaper by hiring one of the engineers

True, but are the engineers available? Valterri would be if Merc put Ocon in.

[Pyrone89]

For a start Valterri would bring a lot of sensitive info with him, the way the Merc team works, things they have been doing, maybe even things in the pipline.

As Izzy pointed out, Valterri is a perfect number 2, Solid fast reliable safe. Perfect for a team mate to the growing improving Leclerc.

Who would you suggest would be better for Ferrari to put next to Charles?

You can get a lot more and better info far cheaper by hiring one of the engineers

True, but are the engineers available? Valterri would be if Merc put Ocon in.

I am sure some low-level engineers with enough info (at least more than a driver, who are not trained engineers and thus can only provide very general info) will be available for relatively small costs. I dont know about UK law but I believe in a lot of Western countries you cannot keep an employee trapped in a contract when they can get a significantly better job elsewhere unless they are very senior positions with the payscale matching giving away that freedom (think of C-level etc).

[Jolle]

You can get a lot more and better info far cheaper by hiring one of the engineers

True, but are the engineers available? Valterri would be if Merc put Ocon in.

I am sure some low-level engineers with enough info (at least more than a driver, who are not trained engineers and thus can only provide very general info) will be available for relatively small costs. I dont know about UK law but I believe in a lot of Western countries you cannot keep an employee trapped in a contract when they can get a significantly better job elsewhere unless they are very senior positions with the payscale matching giving away that freedom (think of C-level etc).

There is indeed a lot of employee protection in Europe, not just in pay, securities and healthcare/pension but also the freedom to terminate your contract within a reasonable time. Normally you’ll have an exclusivities clause in your contract (that you can’t work for a competitor within a year) but these won’t hold up in court because they are forbidden by eu law. That’s why teams use gardening leave, where they pay employees for up to a year to sit at home before they leave for a competitor.

[Pyrone89]

How about Ocon replacing Grosjean for the remainder of the season, Haas gets a better driver and has time to look for a 2020 replacement, Ocon and his future employer happy because he can get back in the race ritum already instead of having to waste the first races at his new employer to do that. If Haas plays it smart they can even get some money on top of it from Ocon’s future employer for that service

[djos]

How about Ocon replacing Grosjean for the remainder of the season, Haas gets a better driver and has time to look for a 2020 replacement, Ocon and his future employer happy because he can get back in the race ritum already instead of having to waste the first races at his new employer to do that. If Haas plays it smart they can even get some money on top of it from Ocon’s future employer for that service

That would be a good solution - he's a Merc driver tho so I wonder if Ferrari would veto it?

[Chuckjr]

Vettel’s performance has been so abysmal of late, I can see them canning him for Alonso in a one year shot in the arm Ferrari contract. Move Leclerc to the top position if no championship in 2020. If a miracle happens and Alonso can pull the Ferrari up to Merc standards in 2020 and actually offer Lewis legitimate pressure, they keep Alonso 2 more years and pass the torch to Leclerc in 2023. If Ferrari does nothing and they stay with Vettel in 2020, they will lose again for sure against Merc. I’ve lost all hope and a lot of respect for Vettel with his constant mistakes. His career is over as a driver as far as I’m concerned. If they don’t sign Alonso, I give them zero chance of a championship next year. Leclerc just isn’t experienced enough to pull the team up on his own. I may be wrong about that but that’s my opinion. I hope I’m wrong.

Merc has a well oiled machine on their hands. Why is everyone trying to break it up? They have *the perfect* #2 driver. Does as he is told, is only fast enough to beat their #1 a few times a year but will never be a serious DC threat. Bottas a clean driver and never complains. He seems ok with being #2 and seems happy to be in the fastest car. He picks up an easy win from time to time and what more could a #2 want than a first place and some poles a few times a year? He would have none or much much much less in any another car. He will have a house full of second place trophies spotted with firsts by his career end, and that’s more than most f1 drivers will ever have. It will be an impressive trophy case. Bottas will stay as long as they allow him.

Lewis is cruising to his sixth and next year seventh title. It’s almost tragic how easy it’s seeming to work out. Hats off to Merc, they have an unbelievable team and car. Very impressive. Envy of the paddock. The idea Lewis would retire or leave such a phenomena for a tough as nails Ferrari project is absolutely insane IMO. He would never want to work that hard again sitting on seven championships. Maybe when he left Macca, but not now. He likely will stay on for 2021 to see if Merc maintain their advantage and if so, continue to rack up the poles wins and championships. Why leave when you can take pole after pole, championship after championship, and there’s nothing anyone can do about it? Ride the ride. He will sit there for 10+ championships if they keep coming this easy.

Red Bull will keep Max and Max will stay because Ferrari has their future star already. Red Bull is getting stronger but no matter what seat Max is in, nobody is beating Merc for this or 2020. Max has a better chance, imo, staying on at Red Bull for 2021 than going to Ferrari as Red Bull have as good a chance as any top team to find a hidden loophole in the 2021 regs that offers a car with enough advantage it can win easier than the other cars. I give Red Bull better odds finding a loop hole. Lewis will still be cruising at Merc in 2021, imo, so there won’t be a seat at Merc in 2021 for Max. Maybe 2022 if the Merc proves a handful in 2021 and Lewis walks.

Macca won’t change. They are doing excellent as is. I’ve really been impressed with Lando. Congrats to Mclaren getting back to the top of the mid field. Hope they reach the sharp end in 2021.

[Phil]

^^
Because Mercedes needs to build towards a future where Hamilton might not renew/leave/retire. Putting a young and talented prospect ensures they have a plan B, puts them in a better negotiation position and they dont lose their talent to a competitor.

Bottas is not that young and exciting prospect. Apparently, Ocon is.

That’s the logic right there.

[SiLo]

How about Ocon replacing Grosjean for the remainder of the season, Haas gets a better driver and has time to look for a 2020 replacement, Ocon and his future employer happy because he can get back in the race ritum already instead of having to waste the first races at his new employer to do that. If Haas plays it smart they can even get some money on top of it from Ocon’s future employer for that service

I have read this in a few places from people that have very close course in the paddock. I'd be surprised if they could get it done before the next grand prix but I think Grosjeans time in F1 is up, probably should have been a while ago to be honest as he makes to many mistakes.