Andres125sx wrote:Looks like you know it all, you know the future, you know what PU concept can work and wich cannot despite the new technology being used, you know who invested what amount of time and resources and where despite no team publish that sort of information, you know what time takes to Honda any development and even the result they will get after that... you know the past and the future, wow.
Now if you could tell me who will win 2016 and 17 WCD so I can make some money
Lets be clear, you have categorically stated that going with a design similar to Ferrari/Renault can't be competitive and that it would be stupid for Mclaren to go the same route.
First the teams have been vocal about when and where development started. Renault produced a chart/website detailing the development process, they spent around 2.5 years to the start of the 2014 season. Ferrari were similar, Merc just over 3 years, they saw the engine as more important in this formula than others did and devoted more resources to 2014 than the other teams. Honda didn't have a deal in place, they had tentative talks and put together a SMALL group to do some preliminary investigations into the project, it was by no means a full swing development, they did that for only 3-6 months before signing with Mclaren to commit to making an engine, they had 18 months from then to the start of 2015.
I haven't said which PU concept can't work, I've said both will work. What I've stated, based on evidence from the engines on show across both years, from the mouths of the technical people at Ferrari, Mercedes and others and ALL the technical pundits have all stated is the full split turbo is a very difficult prospect, took a LOT of time, a LOT of money and is one of the biggest engineering feats on the Mercedes engine.
You're saying it would be stupid to go with the Ferrari design because it can't be competitive. You can make an engine based on either design, however where Mercedes had 3 years or more till the start of the 2014 season to achieve this engineering feat... Honda have 6 months AND have to start from an already set engine with limited amount of changes. The Ferrari style engine is categorically easier to produce and has a much better chance of producing a reliable and significantly improved performance engine for next year than attempting to make a Mercedes type engine. This season is already the result of rushing the engineering on a complex engine formula in which they tried an overly complex design. The solution to this is with even less time try to achieve something even more difficult in even less time?
A good engineer should make a realistic goal for the time he has. A ferrari type simpler turbo has a dramatically higher chance of bringing Honda more points in 2016 and 2017. Could they get lucky and crack the full split turbo in 6 months, sure, anything is possible, possible and likely aren't the same.
For me the simple fact is coming to an engine based formula late was always an uphill battle. Even with a Merc design they are 3 years behind in development of it and always will be 3 years behind. Honda and Mclaren's best shot for winning a title before the next engine change is aero, make a solid engine that can finish races and throw everything at the 2017 aero. They will not win under these engine regulations with this long of a disadvantage, what they can hope for is an engine to get them within shooting distance and attempt to make a killer chassis.