2026 pecking order speculation

[euv2]

Lots of optimism for Aston Martin, but when was the last time a team went from 7th on the grid to 1st? Even counting for Newey and boat loads of extra Wind tunnel and CFD runs, seems like huge gap to overcome. I think we needed to see more from 25.

The signs of Aston challenging for the best car for 26 were never there, can't expect miracles in F1, there has to be some sort of continuous progression even if isn't always linear.

The planning for 26 from the team has been disappointing, from the gearbox to the engine and even the chassis. If RBR and Audi could on the 1st time of asking build competent power units, there's no excuse for Aston Martin not being able to do the same with the gearbox.

[AR3-GP]

The blown diffuser on the Ferrari is a gamechanger. Why was Leclerc's race sim so good? Rear downforce protecting the rear tires.

[nitrotech]

The blown diffuser on the Ferrari is a gamechanger. Why was Leclerc's race sim so good? Rear downforce protecting the rear tires.

If anything, the car was a bit handful in Turn 1-2-3, 4, 10, 13 & 14. Lots of correction. Atleast that's the case on push laps. Whereas Mercedes looked the best car in those sequences. Albeit, one can argue they didn't push as much as Ferrari did on their push laps, but not far off. I am using push lap behaviour, because that's a good representation of a car's stability on the edge, showcasing downforce level. So it's hard to believe Ferrari has upper hand in high speed sections, even in race trim.

[dialtone]

Ferrari is strong but the illegal engine is likely stronger.

Mercedes and MCL could be top 2.
Ferrari and RBR there or thereabouts.

Alpine
Haas
Racing Bulls

The rest


After 6 or so races I think engines will be allowed to ADUO Merc and then it will be a bit closer at the top.

Inverted wing is the only thing that can save the first half of the season imho.

[Badger]

Well one thing is for sure, my predictions about Aston and Honda from this thread are ahead of schedule. I always found it ridiculous to vote them that high.

[ali623]

Mercedes will be well ahead in Melbourne I think. They didn't do any race sims or proper qualifying sims on the final day of testing, just a bunch of (extremely strong) shorter stints.

Plus, Max has literally told us what to expect:

Verstappen is convinced that Mercedes is far from showing its full hand in Bahrain.

“Well, I can tell you one thing: just wait until Melbourne and see how much power they suddenly find. I already know that right now,” he claimed.

According to Verstappen, Mercedes is sandbagging to an extreme extent, much more than most other teams on the F1 grid.

“They are obviously trying to shift the focus to us because we did so many laps on Wednesday. But you have to look at it from both sides. Just wait until Melbourne and see how fast they suddenly go on all the straights.”

[LM10]

Ferrari is strong but the illegal engine is likely stronger.

Mercedes and MCL could be top 2.
Ferrari and RBR there or thereabouts.

Alpine
Haas
Racing Bulls

The rest


After 6 or so races I think engines will be allowed to ADUO Merc and then it will be a bit closer at the top.

Inverted wing is the only thing that can save the first half of the season imho.

Such a shame that the mind blowing engineering by Ferrari might get beaten by an illegal engine. And the biggest farce is the FIA allowing it for 13 races.

[the EDGE]

Ferrari is strong but the illegal engine is likely stronger.

Mercedes and MCL could be top 2.
Ferrari and RBR there or thereabouts.

Alpine
Haas
Racing Bulls

The rest


After 6 or so races I think engines will be allowed to ADUO Merc and then it will be a bit closer at the top.

Inverted wing is the only thing that can save the first half of the season imho.

Such a shame that the mind blowing engineering by Ferrari might get beaten by an illegal engine. And the biggest farce is the FIA allowing it for 13 races.

The latest rumours are the rule change wont get voted through… so that might be 24 races

[De Wet]

Ferrari is strong but the illegal engine is likely stronger.

Mercedes and MCL could be top 2.
Ferrari and RBR there or thereabouts.

Alpine
Haas
Racing Bulls

The rest


After 6 or so races I think engines will be allowed to ADUO Merc and then it will be a bit closer at the top.

Inverted wing is the only thing that can save the first half of the season imho.

Such a shame that the mind blowing engineering by Ferrari might get beaten by an illegal engine. And the biggest farce is the FIA allowing it for 13 races.

Do we know for a fact the engine is illegal ? I read it's politics at play again.

[nitrotech]

Ferrari is strong but the illegal engine is likely stronger.

Mercedes and MCL could be top 2.
Ferrari and RBR there or thereabouts.

Alpine
Haas
Racing Bulls

The rest


After 6 or so races I think engines will be allowed to ADUO Merc and then it will be a bit closer at the top.

Inverted wing is the only thing that can save the first half of the season imho.

Such a shame that the mind blowing engineering by Ferrari might get beaten by an illegal engine. And the biggest farce is the FIA allowing it for 13 races.

Do we know for a fact the engine is illegal ? I read it's politics at play again.

If the Mercedes engine is in fact illegal, as the Ferrari fans are claiming here, then Ferrari has a chance to upvote the changes to CR testing procedure. If they do, then FIA has to implement new testing procedure to ensure A PU remains compliant to 16:1 at all times. That would find out the alleged illegality of Mercedes engine. IF Ferrari doesn't vote for it, then the Ferrari fans have to move on from the allegations and accept that the Mercedes PU has no legality issue.

[zeph]

Do we know for a fact the engine is illegal ? I read it's politics at play again.

All we know is Mercedes asked the FIA for clarification on the compression ratio rule, and how it would be checked.

This has lead the other teams to assume they must have found a way to run at higher ratios, and they want the FIA to change their verification procedure to find out.

That's all.

[bluechris]

Do we know for a fact the engine is illegal ? I read it's politics at play again.

All we know is Mercedes asked the FIA for clarification on the compression ratio rule, and how it would be checked.

This has lead the other teams to assume they must have found a way to run at higher ratios, and they want the FIA to change their verification procedure to find out.

That's all.

Correct but why almost 2 years there are rumors all over that the MB engine will be the best? Why if there is no "innovation" behind? It's snake oil situation then?
I understand that Toto wanted to Lure Verstapen to join them, so big words said i suppose. In the end i don't understand that in this forum its a fact that MB engine is better from Ferrari for example.

[De Wet]

Do we know for a fact the engine is illegal ? I read it's politics at play again.

All we know is Mercedes asked the FIA for clarification on the compression ratio rule, and how it would be checked.

This has lead the other teams to assume they must have found a way to run at higher ratios, and they want the FIA to change their verification procedure to find out.

That's all.

Thanks

[vorticism]

Well one thing is for sure, my predictions about Aston and Honda from this thread are ahead of schedule. I always found it ridiculous to vote them that high.

That’s one thing that took me off-guard in my guesses for this year. I had assumed there would be power unit parity across all manufacturers, because the power units became simpler. The only exception I expected was a potential for Merc to have the best one, not for anyone to be behind. If testing is anything to go by: how has this happened? I placed AMR high on the condition that Newey and team-restructuring took place quickly, not upon the outcome of what Honda delivered--because I thought Honda, like all the engine suppliers, would have no problem delivering these now-simpler engines.

Unless the higher duty cycle ES and lowered fuel-flow quantity made the simpler (by part count) power units just as difficult to optimize as before.

Do we know for a fact the engine is illegal ? I read it's politics at play again.

All we know is Mercedes asked the FIA for clarification on the compression ratio rule, and how it would be checked.

This has lead the other teams to assume they must have found a way to run at higher ratios, and they want the FIA to change their verification procedure to find out.

That's all.

If the answer is that simple, it makes me think that what Toto said could be true. That the regulations change was about some or all of the other manufacturers engines failing at ambient temperature, not running temperature (coolant temps).

[upsidedowntoast]

Well one thing is for sure, my predictions about Aston and Honda from this thread are ahead of schedule. I always found it ridiculous to vote them that high.

That’s one thing that took me off-guard in my guesses for this year. I had assumed there would be power unit parity across all manufacturers, because the power units became simpler. The only exception I expected was a potential for Merc to have the best one, not for anyone to be behind. If testing is anything to go by: how has this happened? I placed AMR high on the condition that Newey and team-restructuring took place quickly, not upon the outcome of what Honda delivered--because I thought Honda, like all the engine suppliers, would have no problem delivering these now-simpler engines.

Unless the higher duty cycle ES and lowered fuel-flow quantity made the simpler (by part count) power units just as difficult to optimize as before.

Do we know for a fact the engine is illegal ? I read it's politics at play again.

All we know is Mercedes asked the FIA for clarification on the compression ratio rule, and how it would be checked.

This has lead the other teams to assume they must have found a way to run at higher ratios, and they want the FIA to change their verification procedure to find out.

That's all.

If the answer is that simple, it makes me think that what Toto said could be true. That the regulations change was about some or all of the other manufacturers engines failing at ambient temperature, not running temperature (coolant temps).

If the other manufacturers fail at ambient temperature that would actually be the dumbest thing I've ever heard of and they should just give Mercedes the win. Until recently there was never even a consideration of measuring geometric compression ratio at anything other than ambient. If your engine can't even pass the test at ambient you should just stop being a PU manufacturer.

I'm sorry, but Toto has to be playing mind games, or that article from The Race must have fundamentally misunderstood something from their source or are just wholesale making things up for clicks.