What if the breakaway happens?

[CHT]

Sadly, this affair is no closer to a resolution. So far, it appears that Ferrari will not accept Max's conditions, and go race elsewhere. And everyone is watching to see what Ferrari do. And who knows what they will do. I believe they will either join an established racing series, or forge ahead with creating a new formula series to compete directly against F1.
My money is on Lemans.

IMO, it is too late for FOTA go compromise, it they do, I am sure Ferrari will be in deep --- next year because Max is going to come after Luca.

My guess is that most teams, if not all, from FOTA will quit F1 and take a year break to set up a new racing series. Some might join other racing series just to keep their factory running.

[gcdugas]

IMO, it is too late for FOTA go compromise, it they do, I am sure Ferrari will be in deep --- next year because Max is going to come after Luca.

My guess is that most teams, if not all, from FOTA will quit F1 and take a year break to set up a new racing series. Some might join other racing series just to keep their factory running.

Why the sabbatical? They have done much of this ground work from the GPMA days. And lets not dismiss Red Bull as mere passengers. They have perhaps more promotional know-how and media contacts than any other sporting company out there. I suspect that the teams know what they are doing. They could even announce a Silverstone 2010 FOTA GPWC race stop this weekend if they want to. The fans would love it. Bernie and Max are not popular at Silverstone and anything that stuffs those two would be very well received.

[CHT]

IMO, it is too late for FOTA go compromise, it they do, I am sure Ferrari will be in deep --- next year because Max is going to come after Luca.

My guess is that most teams, if not all, from FOTA will quit F1 and take a year break to set up a new racing series. Some might join other racing series just to keep their factory running.

Why the sabbatical? They have done much of this ground work from the GPMA days. And lets not dismiss Red Bull as mere passengers. They have perhaps more promotional know-how and media contacts than any other sporting company out there. I suspect that the teams know what they are doing. They could even announce a Silverstone 2010 FOTA GPWC race stop this weekend if they want to. The fans would love it. Bernie and Max are not popular at Silverstone and anything that stuffs those two would be very well received.

If they do a breakawy series, I would expect them to spend at least 6 months trying to sort out the legal issues with Bernie and maybe FIA, and no sponsors or event organiser will come on board unless they have clear that hurdle.

Operationally, it will be another challenge because when you set up a new series, you will have to come out with technical regulations, new car designs and also ensuring the new series will not be seen as a orchestrated event like WWF or something.

The automobil industry is going through a very difficult time right now, and I would expect all the manufacturers will agree that they are not going to sell more cars 2010 no matter how much money they pump into motor racing.

Furthermore, in order for the new series to be successful, I think it will be important for FOTA to convince other car manufacturers and track owners to join the series

[andartop]

The only thing I'm worried about is whether FOTA have enough time now to organize everything regarding venues, TV coverage etc.. On the other hand no one says the new series will have to start at the same time of year F1 does.
If they do go ahead I think they should try and concentrate on securing venues that have been "ditched" by the FIA in recent years; let the F1 keep expanding to the middle-east and Asia where the "honey" is and bring back racing to Imola, Indy, Silverstone, Montreal etc. (And as I said in another post, Spa and Suzuka twice a year please!!!) The FIA surely won't be able to argue about "safety" issues as they have been using these tracks so recently.
TV coverage should be free of charge to really get the viewing figures; unless they are prepared to do something as radical as broadcasting live on the internet (as someone else suggested). This will save the time of contracting broadcasters.
The new series will probably not have a great number of cars for the first season, but anything more than 10 should be enough provided they are fairly close in performance: otherwise, running 3 cars per team might not be such a horrible idea after all.
They could even "spice up" the action by having, say, events such as one-on-one 3 lap shoot outs, or F1 drag racing!

[Michiba]

IMO, it is too late for FOTA go compromise, it they do, I am sure Ferrari will be in deep --- next year because Max is going to come after Luca.

My guess is that most teams, if not all, from FOTA will quit F1 and take a year break to set up a new racing series. Some might join other racing series just to keep their factory running.

Why the sabbatical? They have done much of this ground work from the GPMA days. And lets not dismiss Red Bull as mere passengers. They have perhaps more promotional know-how and media contacts than any other sporting company out there. I suspect that the teams know what they are doing. They could even announce a Silverstone 2010 FOTA GPWC race stop this weekend if they want to. The fans would love it. Bernie and Max are not popular at Silverstone and anything that stuffs those two would be very well received.

If a breakaway series were to eventuate, I'd say it would be very reliant on Red Bull and Ferrari, Ferrari for their namesake, and RB for this very reason.

I wonder if their 'unconditional' inclusion in the 2010 F1 championship has something to do with this? Looks like an attempt by Max at divide and conquer.

[CHT]

Whatever happen to Mclaren and Ron Dennis this season is a good reminder that if you want to challenge Max, you will have to do it all the way and dont even think of backing out half way.

Max is definitely trying to split up FOTA so that he can nail down the rebels..

[kilcoo316]

Why the sabbatical?

Indeed.

I don't believe it is actually that complex to get a series up and running. Especially in a case where everyone is motivated to put one over on the establishment (FOM/FIA).

The circuits will happily f**k Bernie over, as will the TV companies. Sponsors will go where the hype is, and it won't be around FOM-F1.



The issue with the longest lag time is technical regulations - no doubt the FOTA teams can quite easily cope with this without pinky and the brain hanging around like a bad aftersmell. Keeping the current regulations consistent (with a closure of the DDD loophole) would suffice as a starting point.

[bjpower]

the other new teams that didn't make the list may join them aswell.
unlikely but they have no ties so they can choose.
I would imagine that the breakaway will launch with new rules written by engineers and would cut costs dramatically but not necessarily limit them.

no kers
proper tires (the front will be the proper size)
possible limits on testing rather than a ban, maybe Thursday for testing or something.
more engine choice ( rather than the coswort which will be the only thing running in F1)

the main thing the people making the rules will understand the direct cost of changing them.

for example why not get the teams to run e85 bio fuel that you buy at maxol.
96cent/l
sounds good
but you have all kinds of parts you will have to research and change.
what happens when ethnol hits titanium at 500 degrees with what ever oil they are running.
let alone the octane rating, different burn characteristics etc,etc
the cost of the change would be more than the saving.
which we see time and time again in F1

[paused]

Why the sabbatical?

Indeed.

I don't believe it is actually that complex to get a series up and running. Especially in a case where everyone is motivated to put one over on the establishment (FOM/FIA).

The circuits will happily f**k Bernie over, as will the TV companies. Sponsors will go where the hype is, and it won't be around FOM-F1.



The issue with the longest lag time is technical regulations - no doubt the FOTA teams can quite easily cope with this without pinky and the brain hanging around like a bad aftersmell. Keeping the current regulations consistent (with a closure of the DDD loophole) would suffice as a starting point.

I wish it were this simple. In practice things are always more complicated. Take TV rights for example. These arrangments are usually on medium length terms at substatial sums. Also all these contracts are overlaping and do not expire at the same point. So if the BBC has 5 year deal starting from 2009 at a rumoured sum of 150M they can hardly splash out again for an untried formula (even if it were led by Ferrari). Same goes too for sponsors.

So in short even if a GPWC or similar were to go ahead in 2010 or 2011 for that matter they couldn't hope to generate the same revenues. You could even argue that it might be as low as 50%, so in basic terms 52% (correct me if this is not current income split) of the current revenue would better than 80% (my guess) of 50% (my guess). Yes of course you would expect the revenue to grow over time. Like all things, this is mostly an argument of who calls the shots.

[kilcoo316]

I wish it were this simple. In practice things are always more complicated. Take TV rights for example.

Of course, however, that is an argument between the TV companies and FOM, it does not involve FOTA.

Therefore, it is not really their issue to sort, although it will as you indicate likely impact on the monies the TV companies are willing to put forward in negotiations.

These arrangments are usually on medium length terms at substatial sums. Also all these contracts are overlaping and do not expire at the same point. So if the BBC has 5 year deal starting from 2009 at a rumoured sum of 150M they can hardly splash out again for an untried formula (even if it were led by Ferrari). Same goes too for sponsors.

Thing is - without the proper F1 teams, is FOM in default of contract = walk away?

We'd need to know the exact wording of each and every contract to know how any particular contract terminations would work out.

[hulmerist]

i'd be surprised if there weren't numerous get out clauses in a contract worth that much money for situations just like these, even so i couldn't see the bbc for example picking up the new series straight away with all the legal complications

there are plenty of tv companies who'd show it for the right price

the breakaway series is entirely possible, they have the cars, staff, equipment, all they need is a few tracks, i'd bet on the first year being held around europe and spreading out in the next few years

[u401768]

I do have 1 recurring thought about all this...is this as simple as the FOTA teams will not enter, causing a massive rift in the FIA and as they are having an election this year anyway it comes forward and Max gets deposed and the FIA get a new leader?

during all this time F1 will languish (no FOTA teams i doubt many of the new teams will still be interested) till the new president comes in and the FOTA teams all come back in to play with a new concord agreement, some sort of cost control, and peace.

Everyone wins except for Max? FOTA get F1 back to where they want it, Bernie keeps solvent, and the new teams get the F1 series they wanted race in mostly (but they will probably still be along way down on money) and the FIA look a lot better then they do at the moment.

The only other casualty i could see is Williams, but i think they are going to loose no mater what happens which will be very sad, as i expect they will loose they engine no mater what just become more of a bit player.

[Steven]

Operationally, it will be another challenge because when you set up a new series, you will have to come out with technical regulations, new car designs and also ensuring the new series will not be seen as a orchestrated event like WWF or something.

Making a new regulation set shouldn't be that difficult, they will probably just copy the 2009 rules with some small changes (possibly only the refuelling ban).

It is also interesting to see where they are going to race. Silverstone has been mentioned here, but there's a good chance that Montreal and Indy will be back, along with Magny Cours maybe, Hockenheim, Jerez?

And even more, which tyres are they going to use? Slicks I think is beyond any doubt, but which supplier? Bridgestone will likely be pushed seriously to not agree a deal with FOTA.

[u401768]

i would think the EU court would be interested if that happened - i would think that Bridgestone can supply black bits of rubber to who ever they want.

[bjpower]

mitchlen could come back.
they may not stick with a single supplier.
also brigestone might but Firestone does not have a contract with f1
same company different legal entity.