2017 Championship Permutations

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siskue2005
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Joined: 11 May 2007, 21:50

Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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Back on topic.
If Lewis wins the next two races in (suzuka and USA), Then he would clinch the title in Mexico by just finishing ahead of Vettel. Two races before the end of the season.
So the next two races are crucial for Vettel to win.

Manoah2u
Manoah2u
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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If Vettel wins JAP, and Lewis gets a DNF, Seb will be just 9 points behind. in other words, it's really still rather all open.
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siskue2005
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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Manoah2u wrote:
06 Oct 2017, 10:30
If Vettel wins JAP, and Lewis gets a DNF, Seb will be just 9 points behind. in other words, it's really still rather all open.
Yes and if Vettel dnfs Japan and USA races, then Lewis needs to win Japan and only needs to finish 3rd in USA to clinch the title WDC at USA gp itself :lol:
In other words as I stated before next two races are crucial for Vettel

Moose
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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Manoah2u wrote:
06 Oct 2017, 10:30
If Vettel wins JAP, and Lewis gets a DNF, Seb will be just 9 points behind. in other words, it's really still rather all open.
Yup, we're only in the count down to the "soft" championship victory - i.e. the point at which HAM can finish second to VET in every race, and still win the championship.

The earliest a hard championship victory can come is after the US GP, if Hamilton wins twice, and Vettel DNFs in one, then finishes 6th or lower in the other (very unlikely).

The earliest it's more reasonably possible that a hard championship victory can come is after Mexico, if Hamilton wins 3 times, and Vettel is 2nd 3 times.

Finally, if victories are shared, we'll see championship victory after Brazil, even if Hamilton finishes 3rd/4th in the races he doesn't win.

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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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F1NAC
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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Oh come on Lewis you cannot be without DNF whole season :mrgreen:

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SectorOne
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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F1NAC wrote:
06 Oct 2017, 20:27
Oh come on Lewis you cannot be without DNF whole season :mrgreen:
Since 2007 he´s not gone one single year without a retirement.
So the odds is not in his favor :)
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NathanOlder
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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How many drivers have done a full year without retirement ? And not drivers that just drive around at the back without pushing for anything.

Cant be many

Or what driver holds the record for most laps completed in a season as a percentage. Back markers always finish laps behind so that hurts their chances.
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NathanOlder
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Heidfeld had a good run in 08 and finished every race, but not on the lead lap every time
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Moose
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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NathanOlder wrote:
07 Oct 2017, 11:13
How many drivers have done a full year without retirement ? And not drivers that just drive around at the back without pushing for anything.

Cant be many

Or what driver holds the record for most laps completed in a season as a percentage. Back markers always finish laps behind so that hurts their chances.
A few drivers have:
2016 - Ricciardo and Perez
2013 - Button, Perez and Chilton
2012 - Raikkonen

What I think is more interesting is average retirements per driver per team:
Mercedes: 1.66666 s/d of 0.745
Ferrari: 2.33333 s/d of 0.933
RBR: 1.66666 s/d of 0.943

So 0-3 retirements for a Mercedes driver would be entirely normal.
A Ferrari driver can expect to retire, 1-4 times a season.
A RedBull driver can expect 0-3 times.

Hamilton is right at the bottom of his expected range.
Bottas is right in the middle.
Vettel is right at the bottom.
Raikkonen is at the top.
Ricciardo is at the top.
Verstappen has had far more issues than you'd expect.

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NathanOlder
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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Moose wrote:
07 Oct 2017, 15:15
NathanOlder wrote:
07 Oct 2017, 11:13
How many drivers have done a full year without retirement ? And not drivers that just drive around at the back without pushing for anything.

Cant be many

Or what driver holds the record for most laps completed in a season as a percentage. Back markers always finish laps behind so that hurts their chances.
A few drivers have:
2016 - Ricciardo and Perez
2013 - Button, Perez and Chilton
2012 - Raikkonen
Ah i see. None of these managed to do every lap in the season though, so i wonder if anyone has done that. Every lap, full race distances.
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PlatinumZealot
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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Maybe schumacher or might have a perfect finishing record of 100% laps completed over the season.

I believe in natural selection so i suspect that the engines that are running now have honed themselves into being long lifers. In other words they have made it this far and they wont fail unexpectdly under normal conditions.
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siskue2005
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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NathanOlder wrote:
07 Oct 2017, 16:25
Moose wrote:
07 Oct 2017, 15:15
NathanOlder wrote:
07 Oct 2017, 11:13
How many drivers have done a full year without retirement ? And not drivers that just drive around at the back without pushing for anything.

Cant be many

Or what driver holds the record for most laps completed in a season as a percentage. Back markers always finish laps behind so that hurts their chances.
A few drivers have:
2016 - Ricciardo and Perez
2013 - Button, Perez and Chilton
2012 - Raikkonen
Ah i see. None of these managed to do every lap in the season though, so i wonder if anyone has done that. Every lap, full race distances.
Michael Schumacher year 2002, all races finished on podium.

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SectorOne
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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PlatinumZealot wrote:
07 Oct 2017, 16:38
I believe in natural selection so i suspect that the engines that are running now have honed themselves into being long lifers. In other words they have made it this far and they wont fail unexpectdly under normal conditions.
Right in my Top 5 of the craziest things i´ve read on F1Technical =D>
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NathanOlder
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Re: 2017 Championship Permutations

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siskue2005 wrote:
07 Oct 2017, 16:44
NathanOlder wrote:
07 Oct 2017, 16:25
Moose wrote:
07 Oct 2017, 15:15

A few drivers have:
2016 - Ricciardo and Perez
2013 - Button, Perez and Chilton
2012 - Raikkonen
Ah i see. None of these managed to do every lap in the season though, so i wonder if anyone has done that. Every lap, full race distances.
Michael Schumacher year 2002, all races finished on podium.
Ah yeah. The good old 2002 season. I remember that season for Ferrari scoring as many points as the rest of the field put together! :shock:
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