2024 Mercedes-AMG | Petronas F1 Team

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For me: if Mercedes/Toto believed Russell was close to Verstappen's level, they would not bother going so far to court him and end up spending upwards of 100mln euros per year. I think this alone shows that Russell is probably not at the sufficient level yet given the teams have plenty of data. They'd be happy with Russell/Sainz if Russell really was 'the' guy.

[Chuckjr]

Interesting all this.

I think Newey will retire but if he is going to go to the trouble of starting all over again it makes sense to do that at Merc. Ferrari, as many have argued in the Ferrari thread, already have a good team. They have a good car this year. Not fast enough but about best of the rest. They are not in dire need of Newey. Merc is. Merc have money equal to what Ferrari or AM could offer, and Max will be around a lot longer than Ham or Fred. Ferrari also is a rats nest with media and far from Neweys familiar life hub in the UK. All his friends are there and his wife’s life and her friends are there. Anyway, Ham is on his way down. Nobody can deny this reasonably. Every year he will be slightly slower. There also is a drivers situation at Ferrari that is about to take a severe turn for the worse in 2025. Newey wants no part of that. Max is the opposite career wise to Ham and a car can be built around Max with a sharp front end like Newey seems to thrive with- that offers some consistency and history Newey can build on quickly in a new design environment at Merc. Merc is experienced at picking slower team mates to their star, and could put it all behind Max and hand the aero to Newey. Merc will likely have the power unit sorted in 2026. We all saw what Ferrari did last power unit change. So in my opinion and now with what’s known, it makes sense to go to Merc if they can land the big fish - Max. Merc would need some very large people to all agree at once before signing and then sign at once to pull it off. Big task for Toto but doable. Maybe they are sorting how quick Newey can get out if Max bails? No idea and it’s all speculation. But interesting to consider.

[denyall]

For me: if Mercedes/Toto believed Russell was close to Verstappen's level, they would not bother going so far to court him and end up spending upwards of 100mln euros per year. I think this alone shows that Russell is probably not at the sufficient level yet given the teams have plenty of data. They'd be happy with Russell/Sainz if Russell really was 'the' guy.

Could it be to try and maintain their sponsorship and marketing value? George is fast but no where near the name recognition of Verstapen.

[Dunlay]

For me: if Mercedes/Toto believed Russell was close to Verstappen's level, they would not bother going so far to court him and end up spending upwards of 100mln euros per year. I think this alone shows that Russell is probably not at the sufficient level yet given the teams have plenty of data. They'd be happy with Russell/Sainz if Russell really was 'the' guy.

I am sure they have plenty of data for George, but do they have any data for Max driving W13 or 14 or 15? Unless it's a feeling, there is no scientific way of measuring 2 drivers that are in different machineries. Mercedes has always shown intent to sign 2 strong drivers. Getting Max can have multiple benefits. Weakinng Red Bull and strengthening Mercedes goes hand in hand. I said this before, Great cars flatter a driver's abilities and Max could yet be another Seb outside of Red Bull, until proven otherwise. I sincerely hope not.

[organic]

For me: if Mercedes/Toto believed Russell was close to Verstappen's level, they would not bother going so far to court him and end up spending upwards of 100mln euros per year. I think this alone shows that Russell is probably not at the sufficient level yet given the teams have plenty of data. They'd be happy with Russell/Sainz if Russell really was 'the' guy.

I am sure they have plenty of data for George, but do they have any data for Max driving W13 or 14 or 15? Unless it's a feeling, there is no scientific way of measuring 2 drivers that are in different machineries. Mercedes has always shown intent to sign 2 strong drivers. Getting Max can have multiple benefits. Weakinng Red Bull and strengthening Mercedes goes hand in hand. I said this before, Great cars flatter a driver's abilities and Max could yet be another Seb outside of Red Bull, until proven otherwise. I sincerely hope not.

Yeah all of Max's cars have been great recency bias is crazy

[dialtone]

Yeah all of Max's cars have been great recency bias is crazy

Remind me, were people saying Max is the GOAT 4 years ago when his car was mediocre?

Because I think now people are saying that he improved massively now. How's that recency bias going?

[organic]

Yeah all of Max's cars have been great recency bias is crazy

Remind me, were people saying Max is the GOAT 4 years ago when his car was mediocre?

Because I think now people are saying that he improved massively now. How's that recency bias going?

It was suggested that Max hasn't proven that he doesn't need great cars to be good. Yet he has driven less-than-great cars for majority of his career in F1. 6 seasons from 2015-2020. And during that time was considered a generational talent already by many who I would consider more knowledgeable and experienced than you - Marko, Lauda, wolff, brundle etc

Even before he'd turned a wheel on F1 all of the top orgs (Ferrari, RB, Merc) were bending over backwards for him. So the writing was on the wall in terms of talent level.

All of this has been proven in crappy cars. But I'm saying the recency bias is that recently he hasn't had to deal with that so it's easily forgotten /discounted!

I just don't see a seb situation being possible. Seb was pushed close at times by Webber who is a decent driver but I think everyone would agree not brilliant. The signs were there already, and I think the way that other drivers like Hamilton/Alonso regarded him at the time told a story. You don't see that disdain from other drivers now - if anything the opposite. The likes of ham, Russell, Lec recognize that max is the benchmark

[dialtone]

I've never said Max isn't good. You don't need to scroll that much back to see me defending him.

But recency bias on his performance is a real thing and the first 6 years of his career were good but nothing GOAT-like, say compared to Sainz or judging by the number of totally brainless incident and crashes he was involved in or started.

That being said he's obviously a great driver, I'm not here to disparage him, but it's extremely hard to tell car from driver across teams.

[F1Fever]

Yeah all of Max's cars have been great recency bias is crazy

Remind me, were people saying Max is the GOAT 4 years ago when his car was mediocre?

Because I think now people are saying that he improved massively now. How's that recency bias going?

It was suggested that Max hasn't proven that he doesn't need great cars to be good. Yet he has driven less-than-great cars for majority of his career in F1. 6 seasons from 2015-2020. And during that time was considered a generational talent already by many who I would consider more knowledgeable and experienced than you - Marko, Lauda, wolff, brundle etc

Even before he'd turned a wheel on F1 all of the top orgs (Ferrari, RB, Merc) were bending over backwards for him. So the writing was on the wall in terms of talent level.

All of this has been proven in crappy cars. But I'm saying the recency bias is that recently he hasn't had to deal with that so it's easily forgotten /discounted!

I just don't see a seb situation being possible. Seb was pushed close at times by Webber who is a decent driver but I think everyone would agree not brilliant. The signs were there already, and I think the way that other drivers like Hamilton/Alonso regarded him at the time told a story. You don't see that disdain from other drivers now - if anything the opposite. The likes of ham, Russell, Lec recognize that max is the benchmark

I am willing to bet that in Mercedes, Max will not be any quicker than Russell. At Max he would be a tenth quicker in qualifying and end of the season will be almost equal in qualifying head to head.
Perez is an extremely ordinary driver, who is making Max look like A GOAT but put Max against Lec or Russ and he wouldn’t look invincible.
2017-2021 Lewis is the GOAT.

[Cs98]

I've never said Max isn't good. You don't need to scroll that much back to see me defending him.

But recency bias on his performance is a real thing and the first 6 years of his career were good but nothing GOAT-like, say compared to Sainz or judging by the number of totally brainless incident and crashes he was involved in or started.

That being said he's obviously a great driver, I'm not here to disparage him, but it's extremely hard to tell car from driver across teams.

For fans that may be so. We don't have the same kind of data and insight as the teams, we also have all kinds of silly biases and internal fanboy narratives to cater to. But for the teams who are in the business of making decisions that are objectively advantageous for themselves, they will know which drivers are at the top of their wishlist. It would not have been a surprise for Ferrari to discover the greatness of MSC, despite the fact that he ran over his not so great teammates at Benetton.

[Dunlay]

I've never said Max isn't good. You don't need to scroll that much back to see me defending him.

But recency bias on his performance is a real thing and the first 6 years of his career were good but nothing GOAT-like, say compared to Sainz or judging by the number of totally brainless incident and crashes he was involved in or started.

That being said he's obviously a great driver, I'm not here to disparage him, but it's extremely hard to tell car from driver across teams.

For fans that may be so. We don't have the same kind of data and insight as the teams, we also have all kinds of silly biases and internal fanboy narratives to cater to. But for the teams who are in the business of making decisions that are objectively advantageous for themselves, they will know which drivers are at the top of their wishlist. It would not have been a surprise for Ferrari to discover the greatness of MSC, despite the fact that he ran over his not so great teammates at Benetton.

It has worked both ways. Seb was a proven winner, but failed at Ferrari and got dumped. McLaren had great hopes from Ricciardo and we know the end result. Considered as a genuinely great talent, Kimi was hired by Ferrari to replace MSC and after one decent season of winning the title, he faded and was thrown out. He was hired again after really good performances in Renault, only to end up as a wingman for Alonso and Seb. Aren't they proof enough that teams get it wrong? There are so many such examples.

[Cs98]

I've never said Max isn't good. You don't need to scroll that much back to see me defending him.

But recency bias on his performance is a real thing and the first 6 years of his career were good but nothing GOAT-like, say compared to Sainz or judging by the number of totally brainless incident and crashes he was involved in or started.

That being said he's obviously a great driver, I'm not here to disparage him, but it's extremely hard to tell car from driver across teams.

For fans that may be so. We don't have the same kind of data and insight as the teams, we also have all kinds of silly biases and internal fanb*y narratives to cater to. But for the teams who are in the business of making decisions that are objectively advantageous for themselves, they will know which drivers are at the top of their wishlist. It would not have been a surprise for Ferrari to discover the greatness of MSC, despite the fact that he ran over his not so great teammates at Benetton.

It has worked both ways. Seb was a proven winner, but failed at Ferrari and got dumped. McLaren had great hopes from Ricciardo and we know the end result. Considered as a genuinely great talent, Kimi was hired by Ferrari to replace MSC and after one decent season of winning the title, he faded and was thrown out. He was hired again after really good performances in Renault, only to end up as a wingman for Alonso and Seb. Aren't they proof enough that teams get it wrong? There are so many such examples.

You get the best guy available. That isn't always going to result in MSC to Ferrari or Lewis to Merc, those top guys only come on the market every so often. The point is Max is that guy now, the driver every team would like to sign if they had their pick of the litter, he just hasn't been available until now (if we trust the rumours). Kimi to Ferrari, Seb to Ferrari, perfect examples of signing the best driver available but not necessarily the guy at the top of the wishlist. After all, Alonso was not available for 2007 and Hamilton was not available for 2015.

[Dunlay]

For fans that may be so. We don't have the same kind of data and insight as the teams, we also have all kinds of silly biases and internal fanb*y narratives to cater to. But for the teams who are in the business of making decisions that are objectively advantageous for themselves, they will know which drivers are at the top of their wishlist. It would not have been a surprise for Ferrari to discover the greatness of MSC, despite the fact that he ran over his not so great teammates at Benetton.

It has worked both ways. Seb was a proven winner, but failed at Ferrari and got dumped. McLaren had great hopes from Ricciardo and we know the end result. Considered as a genuinely great talent, Kimi was hired by Ferrari to replace MSC and after one decent season of winning the title, he faded and was thrown out. He was hired again after really good performances in Renault, only to end up as a wingman for Alonso and Seb. Aren't they proof enough that teams get it wrong? There are so many such examples.

You get the best guy available. That isn't always going to result in MSC to Ferrari or Lewis to Merc, those top guys only come on the market every so often. The point is Max is that guy now, the driver every team would like to sign if they had their pick of the litter, he just hasn't been available until now (if we trust the rumours). Kimi to Ferrari, Seb to Ferrari, perfect examples of signing the best driver available but not necessarily the guy at the top of the wishlist. After all, Alonso was not available for 2007 and Hamilton was not available for 2015.

I absolutely agree that teams want to hire the driver that is currently doing the best job in the given equipment. That still doesn't mean that driver can succeed in a new team as proven by different drivers. I would love to see a match up of Max and George.

[Mosin123]

For fans that may be so. We don't have the same kind of data and insight as the teams, we also have all kinds of silly biases and internal fanb*y narratives to cater to. But for the teams who are in the business of making decisions that are objectively advantageous for themselves, they will know which drivers are at the top of their wishlist. It would not have been a surprise for Ferrari to discover the greatness of MSC, despite the fact that he ran over his not so great teammates at Benetton.

It has worked both ways. Seb was a proven winner, but failed at Ferrari and got dumped. McLaren had great hopes from Ricciardo and we know the end result. Considered as a genuinely great talent, Kimi was hired by Ferrari to replace MSC and after one decent season of winning the title, he faded and was thrown out. He was hired again after really good performances in Renault, only to end up as a wingman for Alonso and Seb. Aren't they proof enough that teams get it wrong? There are so many such examples.

You get the best guy available. That isn't always going to result in MSC to Ferrari or Lewis to Merc, those top guys only come on the market every so often. The point is Max is that guy now, the driver every team would like to sign if they had their pick of the litter, he just hasn't been available until now (if we trust the rumours). Kimi to Ferrari, Seb to Ferrari, perfect examples of signing the best driver available but not necessarily the guy at the top of the wishlist. After all, Alonso was not available for 2007 and Hamilton was not available for 2015.

Teams dont get the best guy avalible. a quick look at the grid shows that.

[atanatizante]

Further info regarding the tests results after the first 5 races and about the Miami upgrades:

1. What they found after the tests:

- The first five races of the season have confirmed that both the drivers and engineers are still dealing with a difficult car that works intermittently and often is peaky and when it does it's not entirely clear why.
- If there is one thing that became crystal clear for Mercedes in Shanghai is the fact that the W15 has no more performance to offer and basically is a weak car.
- They have learned the biggest concern of the W15 is not having solved the lack of stability which is exactly the main deficit of its ground effect predecessors.
- The car is able to generate loads of downforce but only in a very bleak operating window which makes all that downforce unusable breaking down the car's marginal setup window in return making the W15 unpredictable at most in instances.
- The new rear suspension was a solution that the team hoped would widen the car's operating window. However, from the enormous number of tests carried out by the team till now, the platform Mercedes has designed for 2024 still moves a lot and Jeddah proved the most crucial of details as the tests carried out in Saudi Arabia revealed that the car still tends to bounce around corners very much unsettling the car.
- Examining across performances the car has lost its edge on better tire degradation as the W15 has become sort of a butter shredder.

2. What the Miami upgrades are trying to solve:

- As a general observation, the upgrades to the W15 could now be done more easily compared to prior seasons considering that the W15 does not restrict the Brackley technicians in terms of gearbox chassis or suspension structure
- The new components aim to stabilize the car to decrease the floor sensitivity and recover mechanical grip by introducing a new underfloor alongside making changes to its central and side bodywork
- Last year the team made the needed ramifications for the W15, Mercedes now has the wiggle room to introduce aerodynamic upgrades to try and manipulate the car's platform and aerodynamic balance.
- Mercedes introduced its first upgrades in Japan in the form of a front wing revision which went unnoticed by many, the next fine improvement was made in China in the form of an aerodynamic flick behind the Halo to generate vortices improving the car's rear end airflow
- For Miami, the team will introduce aerodynamic parts surrounding the car's underfloor revising the floor's top bottom, and edges to revise the load distribution around the underfloor moving more load towards the car's rear, the work around the floor's aerodynamic seal is to decrease the bottom sensitivity thus improving stability and mechanical grip.
- The floor upgrade also will aid in improving the W15's ability to extract more performance out of its tires significantly improving tire degradation
- The w15 will have revised radiator inlets that give an increased undercut region of the side pods to utilize pressure differences to improve airflow towards the rear of the car.
- Overall these upgrades at Miami are particularly aimed at enhancing the W15's aero-mechanical interaction which has been lacking and stabilizing the aerodynamic performance of the W15 at various speed ranges, especially to the low to mid-corner speeds.
- This upgrade package is believed to produce 2/10 worth of lap time gain but more importantly, the package is aimed at a crucial aspect if we to believe the statements coming out from Brackley the team's priority within this upgrade is to verify the proper correlation between the virtual world and the racetrack:



- The Silver Arrows also hope these upgrades do add performance stability for the most part James Allison revealed
in the team's latest post-race debrief video adding:



- The Brackley-based squad's game plan for 2024 was very much similar to that of Ferraris build a solid foundation first then work on adding performance but since Bahrain, it's been evident that the so-called solid foundation has not been established.
- Within ground effect regulations the most effective medium to have a stable well-balanced car is to generate as much downforce as possible through the floor to strengthen the rear of the car while it is simple to say this achieving set performance through the floor is a complex task. This is because the floor is subject to interference during yaw and pitch movements affecting the floor stability. It is therefore a question of stabilizing the aerodynamic platform as much as possible to decrease the floor sensitivity to interferences and offer the correct vertical thrust in all speed ranges of the car. Mercedes with its Miami upgrades are trying to do this exact thing coupled with the W15's improved mechanical platform thanks to the revised suspension and chassis layout.
- While one hiccup the team could potentially face at Miami will be correlation issues between CFD, WT, and on-track performances one big concern will be the Sprint format bestowed upon the race weekend. Following the exploratory attempts during the Chinese Sprint Mercedes is certainly going to revise their tactics for this race weekend confirmed by James Allison himself :



...

Now my thoughts about the W15 after the five races:

- The engine wants cold weather and the tires want warm weather.
- The car is fast in a straight line when the engine is cranked up and when the ambient is cold, but lacks mechanical grip.
- When it’s hot the car is slow in the straights but has more mechanical grip. The W13 car had more downforce from the new floor late in the year than the W14 car, but the W15 suspension is better than the W13. So, they sacrificed some downforce for better suspension stability and adjustment, but this led to sacrificing the tire warm-up since the suspension is so gentle on the tires now.
- The anti-dive front suspension is too rigid for this ground effect car era making the car understeer more and adding to the lack of tyre warm-up, particularly the fronts.