2026 Pecking order predictions

[f1isgood]

McLaren
Mercedes/Ferrari
Gap
Red Bull

Half a second a lap in that second stint is massive.

[DGP123]

Seen enough to know it will be Mercedes. The paddock knows it.

Macca will be a step behind, with Ferrari & Max making up the top 4. Sizeable gap to the midfield, and then another gap to the back of the grid.

[Sphere3758]

Until we see Charles in the Ferrari in the evening session, it is quite hard to make any sort of assessment on the Ferrari.

[Vettel165]

People forgetting about Red Bull and Max as the dark horse… They will suprise a lot of people in a positive way in terms of pace in few weeks.

Piastri and Verstappen are both doing race sims as we speak.

The Mclaren is over half a second faster a lap, easily.

Not definitive, but that's a pretty huge gap even for testing.

Red bull turned down their engine.

[Badger]

People forgetting about Red Bull and Max as the dark horse… They will suprise a lot of people in a positive way in terms of pace in few weeks.

Piastri and Verstappen are both doing race sims as we speak.

The Mclaren is over half a second faster a lap, easily.

Not definitive, but that's a pretty huge gap even for testing.

Those averages are off the mark. These are rough averages from the times posted.

Stint 1 (C3 both): Max 39.6 - Oscar 39.8
Stint 2 (C2 both): Max 38.7 - Oscar 38.4
Stint 3 (C2 vs C1): Max 37.9 - Oscar 37.7

On the whole across the entire sim Oscar was around 2 tenths faster per lap.

[Emag]

People forgetting about Red Bull and Max as the dark horse… They will suprise a lot of people in a positive way in terms of pace in few weeks.

Piastri and Verstappen are both doing race sims as we speak.

The Mclaren is over half a second faster a lap, easily.

Not definitive, but that's a pretty huge gap even for testing.

Those averages are off the mark. These are rough averages from the times posted.

Stint 1 (C3 both): Max 39.6 - Oscar 39.8
Stint 2 (C2 both): Max 38.7 - Oscar 38.4
Stint 3 (C2 vs C1): Max 37.9 - Oscar 37.7

On the whole across the entire sim Oscar was around 2 tenths faster per lap.

I can confirm, this is more or less the average for all of the stints.

Made a thread in x for each putting in the stints from Lewis last week as well :

[upsidedowntoast]

People might make fun of me for this but here's my new ranking so far. I could change my mind again tomorrow or in a week pending FIA decisions, who knows

1. Ferrari -- Before you make fun of me, they actually seem to have their s**t together this year. Fuel already homologated, Cassandra'd the race starts, engine is extremely reliable, aero seems ahead of the curve... it's not just the car but also the organizational decision making and steering that seems like they actually get it. Right now Ferrari antihype seems like "past performance predicts future outcomes", which is understandable, but much has changed.

2. Mercedes -- Compression ratio thing got nerfed for the latter half of the year. They'll likely start strong but no idea what they'll look like come August. Not scared about the Petronas fuel situation yet, maybe a little concerned. The fact that Toto seems to have been taken by surprise by the sudden flip on the decision for hot testing (or who knows maybe he was just acting and this is all a distraction from Merc's real advantage) is more worrisome than the decision itself, to me. A lot of Merc hype to me feels, again, like "past performance 2014 trauma", despite the fact that much has changed.

3. Mclaren -- They've been consistently close to Merc fastest times, within hundredths of a second. I don't know how different they are from Merc at the moment but they definitely will share the same compression ratio and Petronas problems. They did have the least wind tunnel time.

4. Red Bull -- Seeing some expected reliability issues crop up plus it's their first year with their own engine. I would not be surprised if they finished above Mclaren, a customer team. But if they finish above either Ferrari or Mercedes then that would be amazing for them and a great embarrassment to the others.

5. Solid midfield: Haas, Williams, Alpine -- no idea how anyone in the midfield is going to do. Cheering for all of them. Haas look the

6. No idea midfield: Audi/VCARB -- I suspect that Audi might be fighting with the other midfielders and could be in solid contention for "best of the rest", but they could just as well be backmarkers just because they're new. As for VCARB, I don't have too many expectations for them, but maybe the RB engine will actually outperform and they'll end up in the midfield too.

7. Backmarker: Aston, Cadillac -- If Aston get their s**t together midseason they might get bumped up to midfield but I doubt it; their issues look like they'll take another year to fully fix. It's not just the Honda engine + Newey Aero, it's the gearbox and transmission and everything. Cadillac, would be a miracle if they're not last.

[Jambier]

People might make fun of me for this but here's my new ranking so far. I could change my mind again tomorrow or in a week pending FIA decisions, who knows

1. Ferrari -- Before you make fun of me, they actually seem to have their s**t together this year. Fuel already homologated, Cassandra'd the race starts, engine is extremely reliable, aero seems ahead of the curve... it's not just the car but also the organizational decision making and steering that seems like they actually get it. Right now Ferrari antihype seems like "past performance predicts future outcomes", which is understandable, but much has changed.

2. Mercedes -- Compression ratio thing got nerfed for the latter half of the year. They'll likely start strong but no idea what they'll look like come August. Not scared about the Petronas fuel situation yet, maybe a little concerned. The fact that Toto seems to have been taken by surprise by the sudden flip on the decision for hot testing (or who knows maybe he was just acting and this is all a distraction from Merc's real advantage) is more worrisome than the decision itself, to me. A lot of Merc hype to me feels, again, like "past performance 2014 trauma", despite the fact that much has changed.

3. Mclaren -- They've been consistently close to Merc fastest times, within hundredths of a second. I don't know how different they are from Merc at the moment but they definitely will share the same compression ratio and Petronas problems. They did have the least wind tunnel time.

4. Red Bull -- Seeing some expected reliability issues crop up plus it's their first year with their own engine. I would not be surprised if they finished above Mclaren, a customer team. But if they finish above either Ferrari or Mercedes then that would be amazing for them and a great embarrassment to the others.

5. Solid midfield: Haas, Williams, Alpine -- no idea how anyone in the midfield is going to do. Cheering for all of them. Haas look the

6. No idea midfield: Audi/VCARB -- I suspect that Audi might be fighting with the other midfielders and could be in solid contention for "best of the rest", but they could just as well be backmarkers just because they're new. As for VCARB, I don't have too many expectations for them, but maybe the RB engine will actually outperform and they'll end up in the midfield too.

7. Backmarker: Aston, Cadillac -- If Aston get their s**t together midseason they might get bumped up to midfield but I doubt it; their issues look like they'll take another year to fully fix. It's not just the Honda engine + Newey Aero, it's the gearbox and transmission and everything. Cadillac, would be a miracle if they're not last.

Agreed 100%
Well 99%, I hope that Aston makes it at mid season

[dialtone]

People forgetting about Red Bull and Max as the dark horse… They will suprise a lot of people in a positive way in terms of pace in few weeks.

Piastri and Verstappen are both doing race sims as we speak.

The Mclaren is over half a second faster a lap, easily.

Not definitive, but that's a pretty huge gap even for testing.

Not very useful if mcl can’t get off the line on starts though, is it?

[FrukostScones]

1. Mercedes / Ferrari
2. McLaren / Red Bull
3. Haas / Alpine
4. RBVCARB
5. Audi
6. Williams
7. Cadillac
8. Aston Martin

[Fred]

People forgetting about Red Bull and Max as the dark horse… They will suprise a lot of people in a positive way in terms of pace in few weeks.

Piastri and Verstappen are both doing race sims as we speak.

The Mclaren is over half a second faster a lap, easily.

Not definitive, but that's a pretty huge gap even for testing.

Red bull turned down their engine.

Based on what exactly? You can just as easily say it’s McLaren that’s turned down their engine and they actually have a much bigger advantage. No one knows anything about what engine modes teams are running.

[Seanspeed]

People forgetting about Red Bull and Max as the dark horse… They will suprise a lot of people in a positive way in terms of pace in few weeks.

Piastri and Verstappen are both doing race sims as we speak.

The Mclaren is over half a second faster a lap, easily.

Not definitive, but that's a pretty huge gap even for testing.

Not very useful if mcl can’t get off the line on starts though, is it?

If you honestly believe Mercedes are starting as good as they possibly could. They wouldn't have any motivation to make their starts look worse than normal, would they.....

[AR3-GP]

Ferrari will operate the first 6 months of 2026 with the windtunnel and cfd allocation of P4 in the WCC. This will give them an edge over Mercedes and Mclaren in the development race this year.

[dialtone]

Piastri and Verstappen are both doing race sims as we speak.

The Mclaren is over half a second faster a lap, easily.

Not definitive, but that's a pretty huge gap even for testing.

Not very useful if mcl can’t get off the line on starts though, is it?

If you honestly believe Mercedes are starting as good as they possibly could. They wouldn't have any motivation to make their starts look worse than normal, would they.....

So there's no problem with starts then, we can keep them as is.

[SB15]

Ferrari will operate the first 6 months of 2026 with the windtunnel and cfd allocation of P4 in the WCC. This will give them an edge over Mercedes and Mclaren in the development race this year.

if they can out-develop them...