What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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CHT
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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adam2003 wrote:Alonso deserves it more than vettle. I like vettle but find hes only good when the car is the best i have never seen him battle though the field like Alonso. He gets pole and usally runs away never see much of the raw talent
what vettel need is a very quick can, lousy qualifying and a track which have long DRS zone.

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WhiteBlue
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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adam2003 wrote:Alonso deserves it more than vettle. I like vettle but find hes only good when the car is the best i have never seen him battle though the field like Alonso. He gets pole and usally runs away never see much of the raw talent
Repeating this stereotype time and again will not make it any more true. Seb has shown that he can compete with the best when it comes to dragging a car higher than it's qualifying position. You need to re run a couple of this years races if your memory is so short. On balance Vettel did not have a more competitive car than Alonso. They are quite comparable actually this year in terms of making points with a competitive but not superior car. Vettel has been enjoying an advantage for the last three or four weeks that was similarly enjoyed by Alonso in summer. So the pundits are all betting their money on Vettel. But a good development by Ferrari could turn that around. It is just that people are aware of Ferrari's difficulties to consolidate tunnel results into parts with a performance advantage.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

Gerhard Berger
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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WhiteBlue wrote:
adam2003 wrote:Alonso deserves it more than vettle. I like vettle but find hes only good when the car is the best i have never seen him battle though the field like Alonso. He gets pole and usally runs away never see much of the raw talent
Repeating this stereotype time and again will not make it any more true. Seb has shown that he can compete with the best when it comes to dragging a car higher than it's qualifying position. You need to re run a couple of this years races if your memory is so short. On balance Vettel did not have a more competitive car than Alonso. They are quite comparable actually this year in terms of making points with a competitive but not superior car. Vettel has been enjoying an advantage for the last three or four weeks that was similarly enjoyed by Alonso in summer. So the pundits are all betting their money on Vettel. But a good development by Ferrari could turn that around. It is just that people are aware of Ferrari's difficulties to consolidate tunnel results into parts with a performance advantage.
Isn't it something like 9-7 between him and Webber in qualifying this year? and that's not even taking into account the problems Webber had at Barcelona and Valencia in qualifying. No doubt he has had some outstanding qualifyings this year such as Valencia or Monza, but i don't think he's some qualifying master as some make him out to be. Alonso and Hamilton are at least as good in this respect.

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WhiteBlue
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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Gerhard Berger wrote:Isn't it something like 9-7 between him and Webber in qualifying this year? and that's not even taking into account the problems Webber had at Barcelona and Valencia in qualifying. No doubt he has had some outstanding qualifyings this year such as Valencia or Monza, but i don't think he's some qualifying master as some make him out to be. Alonso and Hamilton are at least as good in this respect.
With all due respect, you are obviously not aware of the facts. Webber had 11 poles from 194 F1 races. Vettel has 34 poles from 97 races. Considering that they had equal equipment for almost all of Vettel's career the figures speak a very clear language. Webber has a 5.% pole ratio to his races and Vettel has 35%. Some people would conclude that Vettel is something like 7 times better at driving a qualifying lap. One could try to just consider their time at Re Bull together but that would not yield very different data I would bet. Perhaps the ratio would drop to five times in favour of Vettel. But what difference it would make to the bottom line. Vettel is a much more superior qualifier than Webber and that doesn't take into account how difficult it has lately been for Webber to convert poles into race leading laps. Vettel is brilliant in that regard. If you give him half a chance he will usually take it by the neck and wring it to the last drop.
Alonso has different skills. He also qualifies well but he is superior in reading a race and using his vast experience and race craft to exploit opportunities without making mistakes. Both contenders have a lot going for them. I think the development departments will make the difference in this championship race.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

RB7ate9
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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The qualifying parity I would say is a testament to the drivers, but is more indicative of car development.

In the early part of the season, when the RB8 was still finding its legs, Webber was able to wrangle it to points and podiums better than Vettel.

However, as the season progressed and things were more dialled in by Newey's team, the balance swung to Vettel as the car was pushed towards getting back that rear stability with the Ramp-based EBD. Then, Vettel showed more improvement in qualifying.

The question of whether Alonso would lose the championship was always down to which TEAM could pull together for its drivers. With Mclaren going through major internal changes, and Ferrari a mix since Japan (except for Massa), it was down to Red Bull to pull their rabbits out of their blue hats. As I considered during their races in Spa and Monza, they were saving their best bits for a massive push in the fly-aways. So far, apart from the luck in Singapore (it was Hamilton's to lose), Red Bull is on the imperious march.

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raymondu999
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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WhiteBlue wrote:Webber had 11 poles from 194 F1 races. Vettel has 34 poles from 97 races.
WB, I think a comparison on their years as teammates (2009 - 2012) would be a much more appropriate comparison.
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tathan
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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Agree with raymondu, that stat is horseshit...

Webber is not as good at qualifying because he couldn't get a Minardi and Jaguar on pole as much as Vettel could get an EBD Redbull that was the class of the field on pole? =D>

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WhiteBlue
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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raymondu999 wrote:
WhiteBlue wrote:Webber had 11 poles from 194 F1 races. Vettel has 34 poles from 97 races.
WB, I think a comparison on their years as teammates (2009 - 2012) would be a much more appropriate comparison.
I have already estimated what would be result of that comparison but we can make a quick napkins style evaluation. Lets assume Webber had no poles before 2009 and all his poles would be with the same car as Vettel had. Then his pole count would be 11 from 97 races compared to Vettel's 34 from 97 races. Vettel would still be three times better in terms of getting pole from the same equipment. No excuses there! Actually you would have to substract Vettel's Toro Rosso Monza pole. That would still pan out at 33 vs 11 poles.

Back on topic! It shows that the two contenders have slightly different skill sets and strategies but i still think that they are very nicely matched over all in terms of racing driver abilities. It will boil down to the development race who will get the crown this year. Not in Vettel's or Alonso's hands I'm afraid.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

tathan
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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That's totally fine. Why didn't you say that the first time?

Undoubtedly Vettel has had the better of Webber in quali during their time at Redbull. I don't like it when people take spurious numbers and try and make a point from them though, that's wrong. You're taking your BELIEF and making the data fit. Show me the data and I'll believe it though.

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WhiteBlue
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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tathan wrote:That's totally fine. Why didn't you say that the first time?
Because you are intelligent enough to get the message the first time without me having to do more research. So why should I let you waste my time. It makes no difference to the undeniable fact that Vettel is the superior qualifier. And that was the whole point of this little off topic discussion. I wanted to put the record straight on that point.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

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Chuckjr
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Well if you look at this logically the truth of the matter is that RB is at least 1/2 second in front of Ferrari, probably more if they really try. Vettles pole lap was like he was driving in the park. He wasn't even trying that hard as the car was smooth as a school teachers leg. RB will continue to develop so that margin will only increase.

At the same time Ferrari have not been able to match the pace of the RB development so the choice really comes down to if you just count on RB having a DNF, or do you risk a go with something which may or may not yield the result you want.

IMO, it seems more logical to risk as I doubt a HUGE change like this will put them back another second, and if it did, what does it matter if RB finshes the race in 1st place anyway? It may put them back 1/2 second but maybe it gives them 1/2 second improvement. Either way a DNF would work for either scenario. By risking the radical change they up their potential to win DNF or otherwise as the current iteration clearly is not a match for the RB.

I say give it a go. What have they to lose? The case currently is that they cannot match so why just hope for a DNF when maybe you can challenge with a radical change? Worse case they finish lower down but if RB win anyway, what does it matter if your 10 seconds behind or 1 second behind? Both are first or second loser. Its just a matter of time at that point, and that won't work.

I say just go all in and hope for the best. They really have nothing to lose as this current car just is not going to get it done. It's a slow death to just go for it I say.
Last edited by Richard on 17 Oct 2012, 10:14, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Moved from F2012 thread
Watching F1 since 1986.

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raymondu999
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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Yeah but it was quite an easy one to do though WB. They practically have had the same machinery throughout Vettel's career - as the old STRs used to just be the same as the RBRs, just one upgrade cycle behind. Mark had 0 poles before that anyway (Nurburgring 2009 was his first pole) so there wasn't much research to be done in the first place.
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sknguy
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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To the OP, Alonso's odds really depends on when RedBull feels properly compensated for the faulty alternators. Can't tell me Spa and Suzuka were coincidence. Thank you Lotus! 8) ( I jest of course)

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raymondu999
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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:lol:

Lol. Having said that though, the Renault works team is now Red Bull, not the Enstone team formerly known as Renault.
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sknguy
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Re: What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

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raymondu999 wrote:...the Renault works team is now Red Bull, not the Enstone team formerly known as Renault.
Well... I'll think of something.