Hamilton Vs Rosberg 2014

[Mandrake]

They are just too similar in pace. If Lewis is pushing and using his tires the gap closes immediately and once in DRS it is very hard to get rid of him. Niko managed to get rid of him when he had to although Lewis was on the edge with his brakes.

If they are so similar, and that's one big if, how come Nico wasn't able to capitalize on the fact that Lewis was stuck behind Vettel for almost 4 laps after the safety car period? Surely if they are so close, Nico should have been able to pull out a gap of several seconds and then hold it the entire race....

There is no point in destroying your tires. It is difficult to overtake even with DRS if you are sitting in the same car. Rosberg never really was close to be overtaken eventhough Hamilton was behind with his DRS wide open. If he shot his tires however, traction out of the hairpin gets worse and cannot save you anymore

[Phil]

If they are so similar, and that's one big if, how come Nico wasn't able to capitalize on the fact that Lewis was stuck behind Vettel for almost 4 laps after the safety car period? Surely if they are so close, Nico should have been able to pull out a gap of several seconds and then hold it the entire race....

Indeed. Despite that though, I think the pace on the option tyres was give or take similar. It was only on the prime tyre when Hamilton closed the gap significantly. What's also easy to oversee is that Hamilton had quite a slow 1st pitstop. I'm just looking at the FIA time sheet and Nicos lap time during the pitstop was 1:15.767 compared to Lewis's 1:16.686. Added with next lap (outlap + warmup) and you get a second he lost there. Added to the earlier disadvantage he held by having to pass Vettel and you get the gap after the pitstop that was AFAIR ~2.2+.

In the next 4 laps he gained on Nico:

Code: Select all

Lap  ROS      HAM       DIFF
18	95.767	80.208	  15.559 <---- Rosberg pits
19	82.563	96.686	 -14.123 <---- Hamilton pits
20	80.550	82.651	  -2.101
21	80.949	80.081	   0.868
22	80.088	79.561	   0.527
23	79.619	79.076	   0.543
24	79.160	78.942	   0.218
25	78.616	79.236	  -0.620 <---- Rosberg cut the chicane
26	79.648	79.529	   0.119
27	79.430	78.999	   0.431
28	79.124	79.086	   0.038
29	79.350	79.138	   0.212

The anomoly on lap 25 was at that moment when Nico cut the chicane and gained 0.620 relative to Lewis. Ironically, and that's a fact, is that Rosberg's cutting the chicane was his fastest lap during the GP. He never beat it (obviously because he later than had a ERS failure).

Code: Select all

Lap  ROS      HAM       DIFF
30	79.110	79.515    -0.405
31	79.192	78.970	  0.222
32	79.684	79.438	  0.246
33	78.881	79.296	 -0.415
34	78.918	79.303	 -0.385
35	79.022	79.160	 -0.138
36	79.205	80.103	 -0.898 <---- Hamilton drops nearly a second
37	82.102	81.796	  0.306 <---- Rosberg drops 3 seconds, Ham another 1.6s
38	82.704	82.357	  0.347 <---- Rosberg and Hamilton both drop another 6 tenths
39	83.070	82.093	  0.977 <---- Rosberg loses another 3 tenths, Hamilton improves a bit
40	81.948	82.032	 -0.084 <---- Laptimes stabilized by both at around 1:22 mark (82s).
41	81.996	82.364	 -0.368
42	80.945	81.242	 -0.297
43	80.712	80.715	 -0.003
44   97.748	80.324	 17.424 <---- Rosberg pits
45	82.812   95.855	-13.043 <---- Hamilton pits
46	81.222	84.355	 -3.133

Lap 30 - 31, Lewis lost time (0.4s), but then gained it back. Lap 32-34, the gap again widened as a result of Rosberg setting good times, while Hamiltons slowed. Rosberg at that point was never below the 79 seconds (1:19), then started setting high 1:18 times, while Hamilton, wo was within 1:18s on (lap 24, 27 and 31, likely thanks to DRS) dropped his pace a bit. At the time, the BBC feed (Coulthard I think) mentioned that he may be dropping back to conserve tires a bit for another attempt during the pit window. This makes perfect sense, as driving close to a car ahead will add additional tyre wear and most likely also heat up the car. It was also pretty clear at this point that the relative pace of the cars are probably too close to yield a clean DRS overtake - or at least at this stage, as long as you still have an opportunity during the pits, to hold off trying too hard.

On lap 36, lewis's time dropped by a second, while Rosberg was still doing more or less consistent lap times (give or take 2 tenths). If I am not mistaken, this is also the lap when Lewis radio'd loss of power. By lap 37, Lewis had dropped 2.5 seconds from what he was doing two laps earlier. The drop off seems to be spread over 2 laps, where as Rosberg's had a higher drop off (nearly 3 seconds in a singular lap). This narrowed the gap again and at that point, I think we can assume that both cars were driving without ERS.

The net loss of both cars during the ERS failure are similar. Lewis lost from lap 36-38 around ~3.2 seconds. Rosberg lost from 37-40 around ~3.9 seconds. Prior to the last pitstop, Rosberg initially improved, but Lewis's last lap (in lap) was around 4 tenths quicker. Rosberg also had a slow outlap (he didn't lose all that time solely in the pits).

So yes, the conclusion for me at least is that Lewis was quicker on the prime tire. I wouldn't call what Nico did "maintaining a gap" - by definition, maintainting the gap would be keeping it, yet Lewis got from 2.5s (after his first pitstop) to within the DRS zone of his team-mate. By defintion; that is driving quicker. When Rosberg cut the chicane, Lewis dropped out of the DRS zone, yet was able to close in again - with no help of DRS whatsoever. Once he was within range, he was able to do marginally quicker times (probably thanks to the DRS zones), but at some point, the gap was stabilized, because you are running in dirty air - so the improvement is finite (compared to Nico who was in clean air at all times).

Unfortunately, the ERS fallout taints the picture a bit, but my conclusion is based off the relative pace and lap difference before it went (lap 36 in Lewis's case). This includes the fact, that Lewis had a larger gap to decrease when he needed to get passed Vettel first, lost (more) time on his first pit stop, didn't cut the chicane, yet despite all these factors, was able to close and get within the DRS zone. From Rosberg's POV, maintaining a gap and controlling the race, would be keeping your team-mate out of the DRS comfort zone. Something he failed to do.

[loweyz]

To me I think hamilton is far to agressive on the car, nico seems to be able caress the car, consistency or brute pace, the end of the season will answer that question.

[beelsebob]

To me I think hamilton is far to agressive on the car, nico seems to be able caress the car, consistency or brute pace, the end of the season will answer that question.

I find it odd that people think Nico is being consistent.

Lewis has been within 0.1 seconds of the ultimate pace at every race so far, but has had car failures, and won all but one race his car has completed.
Nico has been anywhere between 1 second off the pace, and absolutely on the pace. He has won only once when the other car hasn't failed, and not even always when the other car has failed.

To me, Lewis is being much more consistent than Nico.

[loweyz]

It seems you are right I should rephrase it hamilton is more consistently at or above the cars limit, hence why I believe the early retirements are happening

[beelsebob]

It seems you are right I should rephrase it hamilton is more consistently at or above the cars limit, hence why I believe the early retirements are happening

I think you arguably have a point about Canada. I think it's hard to argue that the retirement in Australia was in any way related to the driver, given that the car had a problem right from the moment it left the grid on the formation lap.

[Sevach]

I find it odd that people think Nico is being consistent.

Lewis has been within 0.1 seconds of the ultimate pace at every race so far, but has had car failures, and won all but one race his car has completed.
Nico has been anywhere between 1 second off the pace, and absolutely on the pace. He has won only once when the other car hasn't failed, and not even always when the other car has failed.

To me, Lewis is being much more consistent than Nico.

Most of Lewis poles have come in wet/changeable conditions, which tends to widen the gap.
In dry Qualy hasn't been much of a gap between them so far.
In fact the biggest one was Rosberg .3 ahead in Bahrain.

Both guys have been pretty consistent so far, Rosberg was off the pace in Malaysia and that's pretty much it.
Rosberg main problem has been his race starts, it might cost him some wins, probably already did in Bahrain.

[beelsebob]

Most of Lewis poles have come in wet/changeable conditions, which tends to widen the gap.
In dry Qualy hasn't been much of a gap between them so far.
In fact the biggest one was Rosberg .3 ahead in Bahrain.

It was less qualifying that I was thinking about, and more Race days, where Lewis has had 10-20 second leads, and clearly could have extended them further on some weekends.

Both guys have been pretty consistent so far, Rosberg was off the pace in Malaysia and that's pretty much it.
Rosberg main problem has been his race starts, it might cost him some wins, probably already did in Bahrain.

I agree that both guys have been pretty consistent. It confuses me though that people see two mechanical failures and suddenly accuse a driver of being inconsistent. A mechanical failure, especially of the kind seen in Australia has nothing to do with the driver's consistency.

[Powerslide]

I was expecting Hamilton to lead the championship by now, Rosberg's responce to have such a calibre team mate is surprising to say the least. He has certainly upped his game that I'm beginning to be suspicious that there are unnecessary data exchanges going on.

[Just_a_fan]

Hamilton would have been well ahead if he hadn't had 2 (non-driver-caused) DNFs

[basti313]

Indeed. Despite that though, I think the pace on the option tyres was give or take similar. It was only on the prime tyre when Hamilton closed the gap significantly. What's also easy to oversee is that Hamilton had quite a slow 1st pitstop. I'm just looking at the FIA time sheet and Nicos lap time during the pitstop was 1:15.767 compared to Lewis's 1:16.686. Added with next lap (outlap + warmup) and you get a second he lost there. Added to the earlier disadvantage he held by having to pass Vettel and you get the gap after the pitstop that was AFAIR ~2.2+.

Actually he was gifted nearly 4sec due to the safety car (he lost them in turn 1 and 2) and the gap after passing Vettel was smaller (1.8sec) than before the pitstop (2.1sec). So the gap was not only due to Vettel.

Lap 30 - 31, Lewis lost time (0.4s), but then gained it back. Lap 32-34, the gap again widened as a result of Rosberg setting good times, while Hamiltons slowed. Rosberg at that point was never below the 79 seconds (1:19), then started setting high 1:18 times, while Hamilton, wo was within 1:18s on (lap 24, 27 and 31, likely thanks to DRS) dropped his pace a bit. At the time, the BBC feed (Coulthard I think) mentioned that he may be dropping back to conserve tires a bit for another attempt during the pit window. This makes perfect sense, as driving close to a car ahead will add additional tyre wear and most likely also heat up the car. It was also pretty clear at this point that the relative pace of the cars are probably too close to yield a clean DRS overtake - or at least at this stage, as long as you still have an opportunity during the pits, to hold off trying too hard.

....

So yes, the conclusion for me at least is that Lewis was quicker on the prime tire. I wouldn't call what Nico did "maintaining a gap" - by definition, maintainting the gap would be keeping it, yet Lewis got from 2.5s (after his first pitstop) to within the DRS zone of his team-mate.

So was this clever driving? Driving near your teammate you cannot overtake on the track and loosing your tires? Dropping back...well, he dropped back but had not enough tires left to close the gap at the pitstop.
It would have been easy...within a one second gap you jump the car that is pitting one lap before you, just because of tire warming problems.

By defintion; that is driving quicker.

Driving quicker to close a gap you could not close before the pitstop? Driving quicker to drive slower before the pitstop when it counts? Well ok...can't argue about that one
Not the first in this season the following Merc is driving quicker or can drive quicker...without any profit...

From Rosberg's POV, maintaining a gap and controlling the race, would be keeping your team-mate out of the DRS comfort zone. Something he failed to do.

He was able to keep Hamilton at a 2sec gap for every pitstop. He never needed more.

[Phil]

So was this clever driving? Driving near your teammate you cannot overtake on the track and loosing your tires? Dropping back...well, he dropped back but had not enough tires left to close the gap at the pitstop.

I'm not sure how to respond to this; Clever driving? There are a few ways to beat a car on track:

1.) by overtaking him on the track using the DRS zone
2.) by putting on pressure and force him into an error
3.) close the gap sufficiently so you could pass him in the pits

Obviously, how effective any of these possibilities are depend on various factors - the car you're racing, how effective the DRS zone is, the speed of the two drivers (the speed differential) and state of tyres and track/surface condition. Hamilton sufficiently executed point 2.) [Rosberg locked up and cut the chicane] and 3.) [had the gap down to 1.2s when Rosberg pitted]. I'm fairly confident that if the race had progressed without problems that we would have seen more of 1.) in the last stint when that's the only option left.

In order to attempt an overtake in any case, it was crucial that he has the pace to close the gap down to a minimum. Decreasing the gap from 2.7s (after 1st pitstop) down to under a second is actually what he did (and needed to) to set himself up for the best chance to win the race.

He was able to keep Hamilton at a 2sec gap for every pitstop. He never needed more.

That is incorrect. Check the official lap time data on the fia website. At the end of Lap 43 (Rosberg pitted on Lap 44), Hamilton was 1.279s behind Rosberg. He then set a very good time of 1:20.324 (compared to Nico's 1:20.712), shaving off ~4 tenths. That brought the gap down to under a second.

As a side point - and I'm really quite surprised it even needs to be mentioned; there's no predetermined race-plan on when the cars pit (or better; when the leading car pits). At a team like Mercedes, leading car has pit priority and when that car pits depends on various factors; 1.) state of tires 2.) overal optimum strategy and pit-window 3.) gaps behind to slot your car into.

If Lewis knew exactly when his team-mate would pit, he could try to attempt to close the gap in precisely the right moment. Obviously, he can't know that (to that degree), so it's crucial to his own race to find the right balance between closing the gap, adding pressure (that may force his opponent into a mistake), try to put himself into a position where a DRS overtake might be possible or simply, drop back a bit to put less strain on your car & tires and attempt the above at a later stage again.

[basti313]

He was able to keep Hamilton at a 2sec gap for every pitstop. He never needed more.

That is incorrect. Check the official lap time data on the fia website. At the end of Lap 43 (Rosberg pitted on Lap 44), Hamilton was 1.279s behind Rosberg. He then set a very good time of 1:20.324 (compared to Nico's 1:20.712), shaving off ~4 tenths. That brought the gap down to under a second.

You are right on the time. But still not in the 0.5sec range which would have been enough even if Rosberg's pitstop would have been clean due to tire warming problems. This was a chance Rosberg never had in the previous races...just close the gap for the pitstop and be ahead...

As a side point - and I'm really quite surprised it even needs to be mentioned; there's no predetermined race-plan on when the cars pit (or better; when the leading car pits). At a team like Mercedes, leading car has pit priority and when that car pits depends on various factors; 1.) state of tires 2.) overal optimum strategy and pit-window 3.) gaps behind to slot your car into.

If Lewis knew exactly when his team-mate would pit, he could try to attempt to close the gap in precisely the right moment. Obviously, he can't know that (to that degree), so it's crucial to his own race to find the right balance between closing the gap, adding pressure (that may force his opponent into a mistake), try to put himself into a position where a DRS overtake might be possible or simply, drop back a bit to put less strain on your car & tires and attempt the above at a later stage again.

Well, as the guys at Merc share all data everyone knows when the other one will pit. This can not be an excuse of not making the gap you need as the faster one when it comes to the pitstop.

[Pierce89]

Well, regardless of how the rest of the weekend turned out, two things stood out to me. No, they downright surprised me!

1. I was blown away that Lewis wasn't up to pole on the track where he was supposed to have his largest advantage of the season, especially after he beat Nico by a fewtenths at Maylasia.

2. Lewis never managed any side by side attacks like Nico pulled in the first and last stints in Bahrain. He definitely got close enough to at least show a speculative lunge or two.

[Phil]

You are right on the time. But still not in the 0.5sec range which would have been enough even if Rosberg's pitstop would have been clean due to tire warming problems. This was a chance Rosberg never had in the previous races...just close the gap for the pitstop and be ahead...

Easy in theory, difficult in practise. If you re-watch the race, on the laps in which Lewis was within Nico's DRS range (after he had closed the gap down from 2.7s) during which on one where Nico cut the chicane, you can see that the gap fluctuates between best 0.384s and 0.8s. This is most likely the difficulty of following closely behind another car. It would be unreasonable to expect a constant gap. As such, yes, 0.5sec would be better, but a gap of ~0.9 tenths is pretty as good as while he was within the DRS range earlier. Also as a side note; the ~4 tenths (.388) Hamilton shaved off on the lap while Nico was in the pits - he had another lap, which however shows up as the long one (his in-lap) on the fia time sheet. Adding this time together and he may very well have made up what you seem to think he didn't, to pull off the pass.

In fact, I think had Rosberg's front not caused a problem during the pits, I think they would have been neck at neck, considering the above. After all, Hamilton seemed to have a bit of a distance when he got out on track ahead of Nico (I'd guess 1-2s - hard to judge, because lower speeds = further distance), but pretty much soon after run into his braking problems.

Adding to that and above all, during this time, both were driving a compromised car.


----------------------------

Anyway, this stuff I guess really belongs in the Canada thread, as this is very race specific. In regards to Hamilton vs. Rosberg, I really think the title race will come down to the mental aspect. 22 point gap is not huge by any means, but it's big none-the-less if you are constantly fighting a team-mate who is likely either going to win (7 point deficit best-case) or come 2nd (7 point advantage). This will mean that it will take 3 consecutive wins to claw back what was lost - which I think is unlikely given how close they are. If he pulls this off again, I'll be very surprised.

I just watched the post-race interview with Lewis and he seemed to carry himself okay, considering the circumstances. Austria will be a big one. If Nico wins it, then surely the increasing gap in the WDC will only add to the frustration and pressure (in that he'll be thinking, now it's 4 consecutive wins I'll have to win back). It would be wise to not think of it in these terms but simply take it race by race, but with the dominance of Mercedes at the moment and wins being traded between the two Merc drivers, how could you not?