2026 Pecking order predictions

[SoulPancake13]

After all Bahrain testing:

Mercedes
Ferrari
McLaren
Red Bull
Haas
VCARB
Alpine
Audi
Williams
Cadillac
Aston Martin

[nitrotech]

Mercedes/Ferrari
McLaren
Red Bull
Audi
Haas/Alpine
RB
Cadillac/Williams

[McFAN]

Mercedes/Ferrari
McLaren
Red Bull
Audi
Haas/Alpine
RB
Cadillac/Williams

You discounting the possibility Aston Martin will finish a race this season?

[ali623]

Ferrari/Mercedes
McLaren
Red Bull
---
Alpine/Haas
Audi
Racing Bulls/Williams
---
Cadillac
Aston Martin

[continuum16]

1. Mercedes / Ferrari
2. McLaren / Red Bull
3. Haas / Alpine
4. RBVCARB
5. Audi
6. Williams
7. Cadillac
8. Aston Martin

If you could upvote in this thread I would

[AR3-GP]

Stella

"In terms of speed, McLaren and Red Bull are very close, while Ferrari and Mercedes are one step ahead."

[ferkan]

Stella

"In terms of speed, McLaren and Red Bull are very close, while Ferrari and Mercedes are one step ahead."

Looked like that during long runs. I feel Mclaren is ahead of RB.

[Artur Craft]

Ferrari

Mercedes/Mclaren
RB


Alpine/Haas/ToroRosso
Audi/Williams

Caddie


AM (will they even race?)

[edu2703]

TOP 4

- Mercedes/Ferrari : Ferrari seems to have a very solid performance in flying laps and also in race starts, while Mercedes seems to do a little better in race pace. Personally, I have a little more faith in Mercedes, but Ferrari seems to be very strong for this season.

- McLaren/Red Bull: see both very close, but one step behind Mercedes and Ferrari. McLaren performs a little better in race simulations, but I believe the Red Bull car is well developed and will depend on Red Bull-Ford PU to help achieve good results this season.

MIDFIELD

- Alpine: For me, it's clearly the "best of the rest". Their car is very well developed and now with a strong Mercedes engine, they should achieve good results this season.

- Haas: Not far behind Alpine. Haas had a very solid performance in pre-season and with the Ferrari PU pushing them well, especially in race starts, they can achieve good results this year.

- Audi: They progressed a lot in pre-season testing. Audi PU appears to have solid performance and good reliability. The fact that Hulkenberg and Bortoleto recorded the highest straight-line speeds in Bahrain makes me believe the Audi car has a low-drag configuration, which could allow them to achieve good results on high-speed circuits.

- Williams: They managed to compensate for their absence in Barcelona, ​​but I still see that there's room for improvement in the Williams car. Currently, I see them a little behind in the midfield.

- Racing Bulls: The VCARB car looks very twitchy and unstable on the onboard footage, and the fact that they have two young drivers with little or no experience won't help them this season either.

BOTTOM

- Cadillac: If there's anything to celebrate at Cadillac, it's that at least they won't be last. Their current performance is totally expected for a new team.

- Aston Martin: The situation at AM is so bad that I have doubts they'll even finish races, let alone achieve good results this year. It seems like everything is wrong with the car: Chassis, gearbox, PU. I would say this year is one to forget for Aston Martin, and I believe they should redirect their efforts to try and turn things around in 2027 rather than salvage this one.

[Gillian]

Ferrari

Mercedes/Mclaren
RB


Alpine/Haas/ToroRosso
Audi/Williams

Caddie


AM (will they even race?)

Yeah after today Im going with this as well!

[V10FURY]

My predictions for the first half of the season:

Mercedes
Ferrari
McLaren
Red Bull
Haas
Alpine
Audi (could be the sleeper out of this bunch with a good driver pairing and huge top speed)
VCARB
Williams

Cadillac




Aston Martin DNF first few races This year could be a write off completely.

[upsidedowntoast]

After today my earlier prediction hasn't changed. At this point I don't want to use the term "sandbagging" anymore because it's just confirmation bias for whatever narrative you want to push, if the team you think is best isn't at the top. Rather than making assumptions based on unknowns, these are my conclusions based entirely on what we have seen:

1. Ferrari
best reliability
fastest top times
fastest starts
aero seems ahead of the curve
haven't seen any major downsides
2. Mercedes
good stints
less race sim data
seems unreliable
3. Mclaren
about the same as merc, maybe a teensy bit slower
more reliable than merc
potential for midseason upgrades
4. Red Bull
Max
the battery deployment thing
expected unreliability from first time PU manufacturer

Of the midfield:
5/6. Alpine/Haas: both looking very solid, can be anyone's game
7. Williams: seems a bit behind compared to the others
8/9. Audi/VCARB: Baby RB team with new PU, and new team with new PU. I wouldn't be surprised if Audi pips higher though

Backmarkers:
10. Cadillac: will be slowest by far but probably more reliable than AM
11. Aston: no idea how fast they can be but it doesn't matter if they DNF


I won't be surprised if any of the top teams are actually first:
- Ferrari: They put in the best preseason test
- Mercedes: Works team with the compression ratio thing
- Mclaren: Same PU as Mercedes, and outperformed them the last two years
- Red Bull: Deployment thing plus Max

I also won't be surprised if any of the top teams are actually 4th:
- Red Bull: Expected as first year PU manufacturer, still incredible that they're this high
- Mclaren: Customer team plus least wind tunnel time
- Mercedes: Actually embarrassing and Toto needs to be jettisoned into the sun if this is the case
- Ferrari: Bring on the memes what did we expect

[Badger]

One thing seems certain, there won't be any room for sandbagging on the engine front as far as Merc are concerned, Ferrari is too strong. Should open up ADUO opportunities for anyone struggling on their engine, though I suspect only Honda would qualify.

[Vettel165]

After testing I am still confident in this prediction. Lets test it out.

1.Red Bull (sandbagging the most, will suprise people in Australia in terms of speed).
2. Ferrari (0,1s) behind
3. Mercedes (0,2s) behind
4. Mclaren (0,4s) behind.
5. Racing Bulls
6. Williams
7. Alpine
8. Haas
9. Austin Martin
10.Cadillac

[dialtone]

After testing I am still confident in this prediction. Lets test it out.

1.Red Bull (sandbagging the most, will suprise people in Australia in terms of speed).
2. Ferrari (0,1s) behind
3. Mercedes (0,3s) behind
4. Mclaren (0,4) behind.
5. Racing Bulls
6. Williams
7. Alpine
8. Haas
9. Austin Martin
10.Cadillac

There's no way there's a 0.4s difference between the top 4, especially not one with Mercedes 0.3s behind.