I agree. Michael was a beast initially till 2006 (36 odd). At 40-42, he was not the same guy. He could still do the amazing Monza lap but it was few & far. Qualifying is the first thing which gets hit - Look @ MSC vs Rosberg, Kimi vs Gio & so on. Even Ocon is quite close to Vettel. The race pace not so much (everyone cruises vs qualifying) plus you have experience & race-craft to make up for raw speed.PlatinumZealot wrote: ↑11 Sep 2021, 04:5737 to 23 is a huge gap though! 14 years! Youth must be worth something here. According to f1-metrics' driver age model, the peak is 26 and it sort of plateaus until 32, where it goes down by a few fractions of "points per race" which is the unit that the author uses in his model, up to the age of 37. Thereafter, the points per race nose-dives into oblivion. So pretty much it is saying that, like Michael Schumacher before him, Lewis' driving should turn to crap somewhere in 2022 or over into 2023 when George should start dominating him. That said, it would be beyond what we know of human conditioning if Lewis can somehow maintain peak form in his twilight years and resist George's speed.
Senna & Prost by modern standards would be considered not fit enough for F1 & so was Mansell but that was a different era.Hoffman900 wrote: ↑11 Sep 2021, 15:31I feel like Senna was the proto-modern driver. Into working out, eating clean ans whole organic foods, etc. Alan Prost maybe wasn’t as obsessive but kept himself in good shape and I think was athletic growing up (and still active with bikes / running).adrianjordan wrote: ↑11 Sep 2021, 11:19Don't tell Alonso that lolPlatinumZealot wrote: ↑11 Sep 2021, 04:5737 to 23 is a huge gap though! 14 years! Youth must be worth something here. According to f1-metrics' driver age model, the peak is 26 and it sort of plateaus until 32, where it goes down by a few fractions of "points per race" which is the unit that the author uses in his model, up to the age of 37. Thereafter, the points per race nose-dives into oblivion. So pretty much it is saying that, like Michael Schumacher before him, Lewis' driving should turn to crap somewhere in 2022 or over into 2023 when George should start dominating him. That said, it would be beyond what we know of human conditioning if Lewis can somehow maintain peak form in his twilight years and resist George's speed.
Lewis was amongst the first of the drivers to redefine the level of fitness for this generation of drivers, much like Schumacher did in the 90s. I can see Lewis maintaining his peak level until he decides to retire.
Schumacher I think brought in the scientific side of fitness and it’s been like that since.
Lewis is in great shape physically. We’ll see how long that translates to driving, but he certainly isn’t slowing down quickly.
Probably true compared to others.....It is a very different thing now.Hoffman900 wrote: ↑11 Sep 2021, 17:55Proto means pre.
In an era of party boys, those two took their fitness and diet seriously, Schumacher took it to the next level.
Because they were.Mr.S wrote: ↑11 Sep 2021, 18:09Probably true compared to others.....It is a very different thing now.Hoffman900 wrote: ↑11 Sep 2021, 17:55Proto means pre.
In an era of party boys, those two took their fitness and diet seriously, Schumacher took it to the next level.
Track testing has come down & budget caps & sustainability are big so simulators have become big. Back in the old days, the big dogs will dismiss simulator as a joke & a video game ! The sort of data, telemetry we get now is insane.
Kind of a circular argument considering you have to compete against your contemporaries.dans79 wrote: ↑11 Sep 2021, 06:17I have a feeling those models are highly flawed. Fangio won the world championship in 1957 at age 46. Drivers are much more physically fit for a given age than they were 10, 20 or 30 years ago for a given age.PlatinumZealot wrote: ↑11 Sep 2021, 04:5737 to 23 is a huge gap though! 14 years! Youth must be worth something here. According to f1-metrics' driver age model, the peak is 26 and it sort of plateaus until 32, where it goes down by a few fractions of "points per race" which is the unit that the author uses in his model, up to the age of 37. Thereafter, the points per race nose-dives into oblivion. So pretty much it is saying that, like Michael Schumacher before him, Lewis' driving should turn to crap somewhere in 2022 or over into 2023 when George should start dominating him. That said, it would be beyond what we know of human conditioning if Lewis can somehow maintain peak form in his twilight years and resist George's speed.
I totally agree with you and I would like to add that I have not seen any evidence for Russel wiping the floor with Hamilton next year. Will be very interesting to see.Fulcrum wrote: ↑11 Sep 2021, 18:28Kind of a circular argument considering you have to compete against your contemporaries.dans79 wrote: ↑11 Sep 2021, 06:17I have a feeling those models are highly flawed. Fangio won the world championship in 1957 at age 46. Drivers are much more physically fit for a given age than they were 10, 20 or 30 years ago for a given age.PlatinumZealot wrote: ↑11 Sep 2021, 04:5737 to 23 is a huge gap though! 14 years! Youth must be worth something here. According to f1-metrics' driver age model, the peak is 26 and it sort of plateaus until 32, where it goes down by a few fractions of "points per race" which is the unit that the author uses in his model, up to the age of 37. Thereafter, the points per race nose-dives into oblivion. So pretty much it is saying that, like Michael Schumacher before him, Lewis' driving should turn to crap somewhere in 2022 or over into 2023 when George should start dominating him. That said, it would be beyond what we know of human conditioning if Lewis can somehow maintain peak form in his twilight years and resist George's speed.
There is plenty of excellent research available that corroborates the point regarding age. In most examples of peak physical exertion, a 20-something will command a clear advantage, on average, over a late 30-something.
This effect is less pronounced for sports with a significant endurance component, e.g. marathon or ultra-marathon running. F1 requires both peak performance and endurance, so a slightly delayed form of senescence is quite likely, meaning most drivers could remain competitive into their mid-30's. Beyond that, decline becomes inevitable and observable, a finding corroborated by the f1-metric model.
For virtually all sports of significance, repetitive stress injuries creep in, training becomes disrupted, and athletes can no longer perform as consistently. That as well as the mental fatigue and creeping responsibilities of family life take their toll. Hamilton has a major advantage over other sportsmen/women in this regard considering he is not a 'family man', and has a very low exposure to repetitive stress injury.
If Hamilton remains focused on the sport, and injury free, he may be able to perform near his current level for the remainder of his Mercedes contract (2022-2023).
I personally think he's already exhibiting some signs of decline, so a tapering in performance seems more likely. Whether this translates to Russell beating him remains to be seen. I slightly below peak Hamilton would still constitute a better driver than 99% of all drivers to have ever participated in the sport (in my opinion).
As for the models being 'highly flawed', they are likely to suffer from over-specification, confounding variables, and bias induced by the choice of modelling approach. That said, I have exposure to this field of study, and I found the f1-metric analysis to be an excellent attempt, even if I wouldn't take its findings as gospel.
I reviewed the onboards of both Max and Lewis during q3 qualifying with F1tv. Max was not anywhere close to perez, before they started going; the gap was about 3 sec, but Perez did have a car in front of him too. But it is still rather surprising to me that Max was able to benefit from a tow being that far behind.