2026 Pecking order predictions

[the EDGE]

Ferrari

Mercedes/Mclaren
RB

Alpine/Haas/ToroRosso
Audi/Williams

Caddie

AM (will they even race?)

That's certainly the most logical prediction, from what we've seen and heard, but I'm far from convinced that that is how it will turn out. In 2 weeks we will see who's been hiding more, it is without doubt, every F1 teams favourite winter sport

[Matt2725]

I think it's hard to ignore that Ferrari are the favourites based on testing, even if some are afraid of jinxing them.

1. Ferrari
2. Mercedes
3. McLaren
4. RBR

5. Haas
6. Alpine
7. RB
8. Williams
9. Audi

10. Cadillac
11. Aston Martin

Gaps added for performance gaps.

[CrazyCarperF1]

It's hard to know, Ferrari do love a glory run in testing, which often has amounted to nothing in season, the usual top four do look fairly close, typically ferrari are strong on this circuit so im unsure if they would be top contender.

1 Merc
2. Ferrari, Mclaren
4. Redbull
No idea about the rest

[gearboxtrouble]

Revising my original list after keeping it the same after the first 2 tests

1. Ferrari - God help me but I'm starting to believe. It wasn't the headline laptimes but the consistency they've shown with Charles behind the wheel. Most prepared team for the start imho.
2. McLaren - I still think the better all round Mercedes engined team will be stronger over all. They were slightly behind on energy management as a customer team but Oscar's race run yesterday showed they have caught up. They're also the only top team to not run any upgrades and I expect they'll have some ready soon.
3. Mercedes - Looked untouchable in Barcelona but showed some cracks in Bahrain. They still have to prove they're able to be contenders under a budget cap and with McLaren now fully rebuilt from their nadir.
4. Red Bull - Looks solid and the engine is better than expected. Should be front runners with Max but Isack looked a ways off the other top team drivers. Expect them to be much stronger after a few upgrades to what is a fairly vanilla package so far.
5. Haas - Very impressive in all aspects so far. Komatsu is imho the best team principal in F1 given what they do with the resources they have.
6. Alpine - Colapinto the weak link in the fight with Haas.
7. Williams - A little off the Haas/Alpine battle but should move to them quickly with some development.
8. Audi - I'm very, very impressed with what looks like a solid engine, innovative car and well run team. In the midfield and if they manage to get the ADUO boost they could leapfrog right into the Haas/Alpine fight.
9. VCARB - The car looks like a handful at times and the driver lineup is a weak point for them.
10. Cadillac - Much better than I expected and belong in F1. Solid start in all aspects, just need some downforce and learning time.
11. Aston Martin - Absolute disaster. They'll probably end ahead of Cadillac but unless they can homologate a fixed engine and gearbox by the 1st of March they'll be behind them at the beginning. Poor Alonso!

[willmesquita]

Ferrari as so many times is the Winter Champion!

Australia: Mercedes P1, McLaren P2, Red Bull P3.

[purestpurist]

1. Mercedes
2. Mclaren
big gap
3-6/Formula 1.5 . Ferrari, Williams, Alpine, and Red Bull should all be really close with the Mercedes engine finally turned on. I expect ferrari and red bull to have better pace but more reliability issues
big gap
7. Haas
8. RB
9. Audi
10-11. Cadillac/Aston Martin


I don't see this changing much until the next regulation change, aside from Williams/Alpine having the opportunity to catch up if they can get their aero side in order

[Paa]

First few races
Ferrari / Mercedes (Merc a bit hard to judge, could be slightly ahead or behind Ferrari)
McLaren
Red Bull
Alpine/Audi
Rest

Later in the season
Red Bull will catch up (winning some races)
Aston will catch up (Q3 contender)

WDC: Leclerc
WCC: Merc

[Timtim99]

1. Mercedes
2. Mclaren
big gap
3-6/Formula 1.5 . Ferrari, Williams, Alpine, and Red Bull should all be really close with the Mercedes engine finally turned on. I expect ferrari and red bull to have better pace but more reliability issues
big gap
7. Haas
8. RB
9. Audi
10-11. Cadillac/Aston Martin


I don't see this changing much until the next regulation change, aside from Williams/Alpine having the opportunity to catch up if they can get their aero side in order

On what bases? I guess everyone makes comment these days

[SB15]

First few races
Ferrari / Mercedes (Merc a bit hard to judge, could be slightly ahead or behind Ferrari)
McLaren
Red Bull
Alpine/Audi
Rest

Later in the season
Red Bull will catch up (winning some races)
Aston will catch up (Q3 contender)

WDC: Leclerc
WCC: Merc

Are we on the "We're so back" phase?

[purestpurist]

1. Mercedes
2. Mclaren
big gap
3-6/Formula 1.5 . Ferrari, Williams, Alpine, and Red Bull should all be really close with the Mercedes engine finally turned on. I expect ferrari and red bull to have better pace but more reliability issues
big gap
7. Haas
8. RB
9. Audi
10-11. Cadillac/Aston Martin


I don't see this changing much until the next regulation change, aside from Williams/Alpine having the opportunity to catch up if they can get their aero side in order

On what bases? I guess everyone makes comment these days

Every year every weekend 2014 - 2020 Mercedes sandbagged and then when they won by a mile they talked about how it was really close and they had to work so hard to fix the car after testing or fp1, and the media ate it up when it was very clear they had buckets of pace in hand the entire time. Toto knows exactly how to boil the frog and I'm surprised so many are falling for it yet again

[upsidedowntoast]

1. Mercedes
2. Mclaren
big gap
3-6/Formula 1.5 . Ferrari, Williams, Alpine, and Red Bull should all be really close with the Mercedes engine finally turned on. I expect ferrari and red bull to have better pace but more reliability issues
big gap
7. Haas
8. RB
9. Audi
10-11. Cadillac/Aston Martin


I don't see this changing much until the next regulation change, aside from Williams/Alpine having the opportunity to catch up if they can get their aero side in order

On what bases? I guess everyone makes comment these days

Every year every weekend 2014 - 2020 Mercedes sandbagged and then when they won by a mile they talked about how it was really close and they had to work so hard to fix the car after testing or fp1, and the media ate it up when it was very clear they had buckets of pace in hand the entire time. Toto knows exactly how to boil the frog and I'm surprised so many are falling for it yet again

The conditions that led to the 2014 dominance no longer exist.

1. Mercedes came into that ruleset with specific knowledge of hybrid tech that no one else had. They could have been lapping the field then and purposely tuned down their engines so they would only 1-2 by a bit. They were riding on that advantage for those 8 years, but that is no longer the case in 2026; everyone has caught up.

2. Mercedes can no longer sell their customers nerfed engines; Mclaren has the exact same engine.

3. The cost cap and development token system is different now.

4. We don't know how much pace Merc is hiding but their reliability issues throughout Bahrain testing compared to Ferrari aren't fake, and Ferrari's start advantage hasn't been faked either.

[Fred]

Apparently only the Mercedes factory team was running the Australia-spec engine, with Alpine confirming this? I haven’t seen Alpine’s confirmation though, so is someone able to confirm that?

With that in mind, these are probably my rankings for the start of the season:

1. Mercedes

2. Ferrari

3. McLaren

(Small gap)

4. Red Bull

(Big gap)

5. Alpine

6. Haas

7. Williams

8. VCARB

9. Audi

(Big gap)

10. Cadillac

11. Aston Martin

I think that while McLaren will get a big boost from the race-spec engine, Ferrari and Mercedes will too from their upgrades which McLaren isn’t bringing. So I don’t think their pace relative to one another will change much. Based on testing, it looks like Mercedes/Ferrari are close favourites, with McLaren being able to fight with them, but also not quite on the same level. I’d give the tip to Mercedes though just because they’re more likely to sandbag a bit more, whereas Ferrari tends to do more glory runs, and even if they’re equal, I’d say Mercedes is the more competent team. Red Bull also looks like they’re in the top 4, but lacking a bit to the other 3. How “small” that gap is we’ll have to see, but I think it’ll be a bit bigger than the gap from McLaren to Mercedes/Ferrari.

As the season progresses, I think the big 4 will stay the same but we’ll see McLaren leapfrog to the top as they bring in their major upgrades. Whether it’s enough to win or fight for the title we’ll have to see. As for the midfield, I think we’ll see some major changes. I suspect Williams will be a team going up the order, and maybe Aston Martin too, but I’d say I have a lot less faith in their general development than most would.

[purestpurist]

On what bases? I guess everyone makes comment these days

Every year every weekend 2014 - 2020 Mercedes sandbagged and then when they won by a mile they talked about how it was really close and they had to work so hard to fix the car after testing or fp1, and the media ate it up when it was very clear they had buckets of pace in hand the entire time. Toto knows exactly how to boil the frog and I'm surprised so many are falling for it yet again

The conditions that led to the 2014 dominance no longer exist.

1. Mercedes came into that ruleset with specific knowledge of hybrid tech that no one else had. They could have been lapping the field then and purposely tuned down their engines so they would only 1-2 by a bit. They were riding on that advantage for those 8 years, but that is no longer the case in 2026; everyone has caught up.

2. Mercedes can no longer sell their customers nerfed engines; Mclaren has the exact same engine.

3. The cost cap and development token system is different now.

4. We don't know how much pace Merc is hiding but their reliability issues throughout Bahrain testing compared to Ferrari aren't fake, and Ferrari's start advantage hasn't been faked either.

To 1. I don't think the advantage will be quite the same, but that doesn't really matter. You really only need a tenth or two a lap and a good driver (which I think Russell is, and Antonelli likely will be) to coast to the championship. God forbid Max joins Mercedes next year.

Additionally, you say "everyone has caught up" but everyone left. Renault left, Audi's engine department is brand new, Red Bull is new (with caveats), and Honda appears to have replaced their previous team with grad students. That leaves Ferrari. Do you trust Ferrari?

To 2. I put McLaren as a close 2nd and said Alpine and Williams could join the club if they catch up with aero (a big ask, to be fair). I also think the move away from ground effect will flatter Mercedes' aero department.

To 3. I don't think the official rules here really matter as much as the behind the scenes motivation and balance of power. Beyond that, I'm ambivalent towards whether the costcap has actually been successful. You could just as well argue McLaren surpassing Red Bull was down to Rob Marshall, and Ferrari's 2024 constructor's challenge was down to the fact they had better drivers than McLaren. If these two propositions are true, the cost cap has only served to lower the relative performance floor, which is nice but not a replacement for true competition at the front.

To 4. That's fair, but they also had occasional reliability problems in the early hybrid era and this didn't really make a difference.

[Sphere3758]

Every year every weekend 2014 - 2020 Mercedes sandbagged and then when they won by a mile they talked about how it was really close and they had to work so hard to fix the car after testing or fp1, and the media ate it up when it was very clear they had buckets of pace in hand the entire time. Toto knows exactly how to boil the frog and I'm surprised so many are falling for it yet again

The conditions that led to the 2014 dominance no longer exist.

1. Mercedes came into that ruleset with specific knowledge of hybrid tech that no one else had. They could have been lapping the field then and purposely tuned down their engines so they would only 1-2 by a bit. They were riding on that advantage for those 8 years, but that is no longer the case in 2026; everyone has caught up.

2. Mercedes can no longer sell their customers nerfed engines; Mclaren has the exact same engine.

3. The cost cap and development token system is different now.

4. We don't know how much pace Merc is hiding but their reliability issues throughout Bahrain testing compared to Ferrari aren't fake, and Ferrari's start advantage hasn't been faked either.

To 1. I don't think the advantage will be quite the same, but that doesn't really matter. You really only need a tenth or two a lap and a good driver (which I think Russell is, and Antonelli likely will be) to coast to the championship. God forbid Max joins Mercedes next year.

Additionally, you say "everyone has caught up" but everyone left. Renault left, Audi's engine department is brand new, Red Bull is new (with caveats), and Honda appears to have replaced their previous team with grad students. That leaves Ferrari. Do you trust Ferrari?

To 2. I put McLaren as a close 2nd and said Alpine and Williams could join the club if they catch up with aero (a big ask, to be fair). I also think the move away from ground effect will flatter Mercedes' aero department.

To 3. I don't think the official rules here really matter as much as the behind the scenes motivation and balance of power. Beyond that, I'm ambivalent towards whether the costcap has actually been successful. You could just as well argue McLaren surpassing Red Bull was down to Rob Marshall, and Ferrari's 2024 constructor's challenge was down to the fact they had better drivers than McLaren. If these two propositions are true, the cost cap has only served to lower the relative performance floor, which is nice but not a replacement for true competition at the front.

To 4. That's fair, but they also had occasional reliability problems in the early hybrid era and this didn't really make a difference.

If the gap was a “tenth or two” with either Ferrari/Redbull, I think most people would bet serious money on Max and even Charles to beat George quite easily.

The only reason George is a favorite and Kimi is in conversation is because the gap is expected to be a second. That’s how Toto has made it sound the whole of last year atleast

[purestpurist]

The conditions that led to the 2014 dominance no longer exist.

1. Mercedes came into that ruleset with specific knowledge of hybrid tech that no one else had. They could have been lapping the field then and purposely tuned down their engines so they would only 1-2 by a bit. They were riding on that advantage for those 8 years, but that is no longer the case in 2026; everyone has caught up.

2. Mercedes can no longer sell their customers nerfed engines; Mclaren has the exact same engine.

3. The cost cap and development token system is different now.

4. We don't know how much pace Merc is hiding but their reliability issues throughout Bahrain testing compared to Ferrari aren't fake, and Ferrari's start advantage hasn't been faked either.

To 1. I don't think the advantage will be quite the same, but that doesn't really matter. You really only need a tenth or two a lap and a good driver (which I think Russell is, and Antonelli likely will be) to coast to the championship. God forbid Max joins Mercedes next year.

Additionally, you say "everyone has caught up" but everyone left. Renault left, Audi's engine department is brand new, Red Bull is new (with caveats), and Honda appears to have replaced their previous team with grad students. That leaves Ferrari. Do you trust Ferrari?

To 2. I put McLaren as a close 2nd and said Alpine and Williams could join the club if they catch up with aero (a big ask, to be fair). I also think the move away from ground effect will flatter Mercedes' aero department.

To 3. I don't think the official rules here really matter as much as the behind the scenes motivation and balance of power. Beyond that, I'm ambivalent towards whether the costcap has actually been successful. You could just as well argue McLaren surpassing Red Bull was down to Rob Marshall, and Ferrari's 2024 constructor's challenge was down to the fact they had better drivers than McLaren. If these two propositions are true, the cost cap has only served to lower the relative performance floor, which is nice but not a replacement for true competition at the front.

To 4. That's fair, but they also had occasional reliability problems in the early hybrid era and this didn't really make a difference.

If the gap was a “tenth or two” with either Ferrari/Redbull, I think most people would bet serious money on Max and even Charles to beat George quite easily.

The only reason George is a favorite and Kimi is in conversation is because the gap is expected to be a second. That’s how Toto has made it sound the whole of last year atleast

I don't think that's fair to George. I do agree Verstappen and Leclerc are better drivers, but not by that much. McLaren's advantage last year was only 2-3 tenths and that was all Lando needed. I think George is better than Lando, although we won't know for sure until he faces the pressure of a title campaign