2026 Pecking order predictions

[motobaleno]

1. Mercedes
2. Mclaren
big gap
3-6/Formula 1.5 . Ferrari, Williams, Alpine, and Red Bull should all be really close with the Mercedes engine finally turned on. I expect ferrari and red bull to have better pace but more reliability issues
big gap
7. Haas
8. RB
9. Audi
10-11. Cadillac/Aston Martin


I don't see this changing much until the next regulation change, aside from Williams/Alpine having the opportunity to catch up if they can get their aero side in order

This scenario could apply only if Merc CR trick is not based on thermal expansion (that would give only residual advantages) but on the second microchamber. But, no matter what FIA/everybodyelse is telling/ruling now, that would be a dieselgate-like defeat device. The mediatic world is completely changed since 2014. and F1 is completely changed...During preseason test it is a matter for lovers/nerds...in Australia if there is a GP with a trama according to your pecking order you will have a nuclear bomb on social media with
kardashian-like people howling at mercedes defeat device...Ferrari, Honda and Audi for completely different reasons are in extreme tension, RB maybe is different but RB has MAX...if Max get lapped by russel/kimi do you think that in press conference will be honey-like praising their driving skills? Besides, Merc could not hide their dominance, if a dominance is, because in this case Mcl would step in...We will see.

[purestpurist]

1. Mercedes
2. Mclaren
big gap
3-6/Formula 1.5 . Ferrari, Williams, Alpine, and Red Bull should all be really close with the Mercedes engine finally turned on. I expect ferrari and red bull to have better pace but more reliability issues
big gap
7. Haas
8. RB
9. Audi
10-11. Cadillac/Aston Martin


I don't see this changing much until the next regulation change, aside from Williams/Alpine having the opportunity to catch up if they can get their aero side in order

This scenario could apply only if Merc CR trick is not based on thermal expansion (that would give only residual advantages) but on the second microchamber. But, no matter what FIA/everybodyelse is telling/ruling now, that would be a dieselgate-like defeat device. The mediatic world is completely changed since 2014. and F1 is completely changed...During preseason test it is a matter for lovers/nerds...in Australia if there is a GP with a trama according to your pecking order you will have a nuclear bomb on social media with
kardashian-like people howling at mercedes defeat device...Ferrari, Honda and Audi for completely different reasons are in extreme tension, RB maybe is different but RB has MAX...if Max get lapped by russel/kimi do you think that in press conference will be honey-like praising their driving skills? Besides, Merc could not hide their dominance, if a dominance is, because in this case Mcl would step in...We will see.

"Hey Zak, if you listen to me you're guaranteed race wins and 2nd minimum in the constructors in perpetuity"

"Sounds good Torger"

[motobaleno]

"Hey Zak, if you listen to me you're guaranteed race wins and 2nd minimum in the constructors in perpetuity"

"Sounds good Torger"

Let me educately say that if your first scenario (the F1.5 I mean, Merc marginally first obviously is possible) seems not to so likely, this one is objectively wildest fantasy.
maybe if you substitute "Zak" with "Flavio" could be (but would be useless). With MCL noway.

[Sphere3758]

To 1. I don't think the advantage will be quite the same, but that doesn't really matter. You really only need a tenth or two a lap and a good driver (which I think Russell is, and Antonelli likely will be) to coast to the championship. God forbid Max joins Mercedes next year.

Additionally, you say "everyone has caught up" but everyone left. Renault left, Audi's engine department is brand new, Red Bull is new (with caveats), and Honda appears to have replaced their previous team with grad students. That leaves Ferrari. Do you trust Ferrari?

To 2. I put McLaren as a close 2nd and said Alpine and Williams could join the club if they catch up with aero (a big ask, to be fair). I also think the move away from ground effect will flatter Mercedes' aero department.

To 3. I don't think the official rules here really matter as much as the behind the scenes motivation and balance of power. Beyond that, I'm ambivalent towards whether the costcap has actually been successful. You could just as well argue McLaren surpassing Red Bull was down to Rob Marshall, and Ferrari's 2024 constructor's challenge was down to the fact they had better drivers than McLaren. If these two propositions are true, the cost cap has only served to lower the relative performance floor, which is nice but not a replacement for true competition at the front.

To 4. That's fair, but they also had occasional reliability problems in the early hybrid era and this didn't really make a difference.

If the gap was a “tenth or two” with either Ferrari/Redbull, I think most people would bet serious money on Max and even Charles to beat George quite easily.

The only reason George is a favorite and Kimi is in conversation is because the gap is expected to be a second. That’s how Toto has made it sound the whole of last year atleast

I don't think that's fair to George. I do agree Verstappen and Leclerc are better drivers, but not by that much. McLaren's advantage last year was only 2-3 tenths and that was all Lando needed. I think George is better than Lando, although we won't know for sure until he faces the pressure of a title campaign

This is all obviously guesswork, but I would say McLaren had a massive advantage in races last summer which reduced to around 2 tenths over Redbull for the last 3rd of the season. Lando is on record this season talking about how they could actually afford to drive slower last year because of the advantage they had. And for the last 3rd, we all know the numbers Max made up on the McLaren drivers.

My only point is that a “tenth or two” is in the realm of being able to defend, either with special quali efforts or strong defending in races. And I would personally bet on Max and Charles over George in this scenario. There is the unknown of Lewis of course

[nitrotech]

If the gap was a “tenth or two” with either Ferrari/Redbull, I think most people would bet serious money on Max and even Charles to beat George quite easily.

The only reason George is a favorite and Kimi is in conversation is because the gap is expected to be a second. That’s how Toto has made it sound the whole of last year atleast

I don't think that's fair to George. I do agree Verstappen and Leclerc are better drivers, but not by that much. McLaren's advantage last year was only 2-3 tenths and that was all Lando needed. I think George is better than Lando, although we won't know for sure until he faces the pressure of a title campaign

This is all obviously guesswork, but I would say McLaren had a massive advantage in races last summer which reduced to around 2 tenths over Redbull for the last 3rd of the season. Lando is on record this season talking about how they could actually afford to drive slower last year because of the advantage they had. And for the last 3rd, we all know the numbers Max made up on the McLaren drivers.

My only point is that a “tenth or two” is in the realm of being able to defend, either with special quali efforts or strong defending in races. And I would personally bet on Max and Charles over George in this scenario. There is the unknown of Lewis of course

It's amazing how people make up stuff about Max and Charles being better than George, while Charles has dunked a lot of races while he had a great car and Max basically a torpedo in wheel to wheel racing. Last year, when Max had a better car for 2/3rd of the season, he couldn't beat Lando, despite Lando's mistakes and misfortune. Facts are facts. George never had a consistent car so far in F1. Whenever the car was there, he has put it on pole and has won it often when it had race pace. But it's too much to ask for a fair analysis. Until there is a good sample size to prove a point, claiming anything is a false analysis.

[vorticism]

"Last year, when Max had a better car for 2/3rd of the season..."

Then one year, for no reason at all, Verstappen decided to start losing more often. It's like the inverse of 2014, when Hamilton, for no reason at all, decided to start winning more often. Maybe a bit like 2016, when Rosberg, for no reason at all, decided to start winning more often. These drivers. Such finicky creatures! I'd say, just decide to start winning, for no reason at all, right from the start, then keep doing that. You could break all the records then retire early. Simple. Crazy drivers... I guess they're paid too much. Forgot all they had ever had to do was just decide to start winning more often, for no reason at all.

[Badger]

If the gap was a “tenth or two” with either Ferrari/Redbull, I think most people would bet serious money on Max and even Charles to beat George quite easily.

The only reason George is a favorite and Kimi is in conversation is because the gap is expected to be a second. That’s how Toto has made it sound the whole of last year atleast

I don't think that's fair to George. I do agree Verstappen and Leclerc are better drivers, but not by that much. McLaren's advantage last year was only 2-3 tenths and that was all Lando needed. I think George is better than Lando, although we won't know for sure until he faces the pressure of a title campaign

This is all obviously guesswork, but I would say McLaren had a massive advantage in races last summer which reduced to around 2 tenths over Redbull for the last 3rd of the season. Lando is on record this season talking about how they could actually afford to drive slower last year because of the advantage they had. And for the last 3rd, we all know the numbers Max made up on the McLaren drivers.

My only point is that a “tenth or two” is in the realm of being able to defend, either with special quali efforts or strong defending in races. And I would personally bet on Max and Charles over George in this scenario. There is the unknown of Lewis of course

Agreed. If it's between Ferrari, Merc, and McLaren, with all of them being close, I fancy Leclerc. But the fun thing is it could be anyone really, every single one of those 6 drivers could do it, even Antonelli and Hamilton could surprise us.

[bananapeel23]

I don't think that's fair to George. I do agree Verstappen and Leclerc are better drivers, but not by that much. McLaren's advantage last year was only 2-3 tenths and that was all Lando needed. I think George is better than Lando, although we won't know for sure until he faces the pressure of a title campaign

This is all obviously guesswork, but I would say McLaren had a massive advantage in races last summer which reduced to around 2 tenths over Redbull for the last 3rd of the season. Lando is on record this season talking about how they could actually afford to drive slower last year because of the advantage they had. And for the last 3rd, we all know the numbers Max made up on the McLaren drivers.

My only point is that a “tenth or two” is in the realm of being able to defend, either with special quali efforts or strong defending in races. And I would personally bet on Max and Charles over George in this scenario. There is the unknown of Lewis of course

It's amazing how people make up stuff about Max and Charles being better than George, while Charles has dunked a lot of races while he had a great car and Max basically a torpedo in wheel to wheel racing. Last year, when Max had a better car for 2/3rd of the season, he couldn't beat Lando, despite Lando's mistakes and misfortune. Facts are facts. George never had a consistent car so far in F1. Whenever the car was there, he has put it on pole and has won it often when it had race pace. But it's too much to ask for a fair analysis. Until there is a good sample size to prove a point, claiming anything is a false analysis.

I’d argue that Leclerc has cost himself a grand total of one win in his career through his own mistakes. That being France 2022. Apart from that one race, almost every win he has lost out on was the result of Ferrari messing up strategy, the engine giving up on him or the car simply not having the pace.

You could potentially argue that he lost Baku 2024 due to his own mistakes, but without the illegal flexi-wing used by Piastri he would have gotten past him.

Leclerc being mistake prone isn’t true. He’s extremely consistent. He’s quite clearly the second best driver on the grid, adjusted for luck.

[SB15]

This is all obviously guesswork, but I would say McLaren had a massive advantage in races last summer which reduced to around 2 tenths over Redbull for the last 3rd of the season. Lando is on record this season talking about how they could actually afford to drive slower last year because of the advantage they had. And for the last 3rd, we all know the numbers Max made up on the McLaren drivers.

My only point is that a “tenth or two” is in the realm of being able to defend, either with special quali efforts or strong defending in races. And I would personally bet on Max and Charles over George in this scenario. There is the unknown of Lewis of course

It's amazing how people make up stuff about Max and Charles being better than George, while Charles has dunked a lot of races while he had a great car and Max basically a torpedo in wheel to wheel racing. Last year, when Max had a better car for 2/3rd of the season, he couldn't beat Lando, despite Lando's mistakes and misfortune. Facts are facts. George never had a consistent car so far in F1. Whenever the car was there, he has put it on pole and has won it often when it had race pace. But it's too much to ask for a fair analysis. Until there is a good sample size to prove a point, claiming anything is a false analysis.

I’d argue that Leclerc has cost himself a grand total of one win in his career through his own mistakes. That being France 2022. Apart from that one race, almost every win he has lost out on was the result of Ferrari messing up strategy, the engine giving up on him or the car simply not having the pace.

You could potentially argue that he lost Baku 2024 due to his own mistakes, but without the illegal flexi-wing used by Piastri he would have gotten past him.

Leclerc being mistake prone isn’t true. He’s extremely consistent. He’s quite clearly the second best driver on the grid, adjusted for luck.

I don't know about that one man...

[Sphere3758]

It's amazing how people make up stuff about Max and Charles being better than George, while Charles has dunked a lot of races while he had a great car and Max basically a torpedo in wheel to wheel racing. Last year, when Max had a better car for 2/3rd of the season, he couldn't beat Lando, despite Lando's mistakes and misfortune. Facts are facts. George never had a consistent car so far in F1. Whenever the car was there, he has put it on pole and has won it often when it had race pace. But it's too much to ask for a fair analysis. Until there is a good sample size to prove a point, claiming anything is a false analysis.

I’d argue that Leclerc has cost himself a grand total of one win in his career through his own mistakes. That being France 2022. Apart from that one race, almost every win he has lost out on was the result of Ferrari messing up strategy, the engine giving up on him or the car simply not having the pace.

You could potentially argue that he lost Baku 2024 due to his own mistakes, but without the illegal flexi-wing used by Piastri he would have gotten past him.

Leclerc being mistake prone isn’t true. He’s extremely consistent. He’s quite clearly the second best driver on the grid, adjusted for luck.

I don't know about that one man...

Max is definitely a step above everyone on the grid in terms of consistency. I think a large part of that is how consistent Redbull are, but I still think Max is a big enough factor.

But I would definitely put Leclerc second, don’t see any other driver you could honestly put up there if you take their careers into account ( and not the 5 races in the row that George did well for once in his life)

[upsidedowntoast]

If the gap was a “tenth or two” with either Ferrari/Redbull, I think most people would bet serious money on Max and even Charles to beat George quite easily.

The only reason George is a favorite and Kimi is in conversation is because the gap is expected to be a second. That’s how Toto has made it sound the whole of last year atleast

1. No, the gap was never a second. The compression ratio rumors were only ever worth at most 0.4s per lap, and until a few weeks ago Red Bull was rumored to have the trick too, so the differential to RB would have been smaller. A 1s advantage is actually ridiculous, like 2014 "Mercedes dominance will bore fans we will nerf them hard" levelw of ridiculous.

2. George was regularly getting podiums and won twice last year despite on average being in the third fastest car (and the car was highly inconsistent so some weekends it was 4th fastest behind Ferrari and other weekends it was better). At Canada and Singapore where they did nail the setup -- and that was worth far less than 0.2s per lap -- George went pole to win easily.

3. The true difference between Max, Charles, and George in equal machinery is maybe 0.1-0.3s amortized. Being a full second behind is like 2020 Williams Latifi level.

not the 5 races in the row that George did well for once in his life

"For once in his life?" I think you're a little biased against George. He pulled miracles in the bankruptcy era Williams, he was on his way to win in a car and shoes way too small for him had it not been for absurdly bad luck, held his own against Lewis Hamilton as a teammate, and his 2024-2025 have been great. He had one bad year in 2023 and that in retrospect was a one time confidence break than an actual lack of skill. No one knows how he and Charles truly compare to each other, I suspect we'll find out in 2026, but he's not some kind of bum...

[Matt2725]

I can't get my head around the bias so many have against Russell.

I can only assume because he's the closest threat to another Verstappen title or a first for Leclerc.

[Sphere3758]

I can't get my head around the bias so many have against Russell.

I can only assume because he's the closest threat to another Verstappen title or a first for Leclerc.

It is not bias against George to claim Max/Charles would beat him in a slightly inferior car lol. He is probably still the 3rd best driver on the grid.

It is also not bias to claim that Max would likely beat Charles in a slightly inferior car.

[Dee]

I can't get my head around the bias so many have against Russell.

I can only assume because he's the closest threat to another Verstappen title or a first for Leclerc.

It is not bias against George to claim Max/Charles would beat him in a slightly inferior car lol. He is probably still the 3rd best driver on the grid.

It is also not bias to claim that Max would likely beat Charles in a slightly inferior car.

Max already did this in 2019.

[upsidedowntoast]

I can't get my head around the bias so many have against Russell.

I can only assume because he's the closest threat to another Verstappen title or a first for Leclerc.

It is not bias against George to claim Max/Charles would beat him in a slightly inferior car lol. He is probably still the 3rd best driver on the grid.

It is also not bias to claim that Max would likely beat Charles in a slightly inferior car.

I wouldn't argue over any ranking that put Max 1, and Charles/George in 2/3. That is a perfectly reasonable take.

My disagreement with that other post was that
1. George was only the favourite because Toto was claiming the 2026 Merc had a 1s advantage (false, Toto never claimed anything, other PU manufacturers feared *up to* a 0.2-0.3s advantage, George has shown himself to be capable of decisive wins in a far smaller margin than that, and Stroll or Latifi could win with a 1s advantage)
2. George performing well "for once in his life" (sure, if you consider his entire racing career except for one bad year "once")