US lite truck industry literally breaking down

[Belatti]

Some steps to follow when fuel prices goes up:

1) Improve your driving: a study here in Buenos Aires showed that driving at 90kph instead of 110kph saves very little time, minimizes accident risk and saves more than 12% of fuel. (figures in this article in spanish)
http://www.clarin.com/diario/2008/07/03 ... 707153.htm

2) What do you want, to save fuel or to save money? New cars save fuel but are more expensive. Little cars are cheap and save fuel but may not have the comfort you pretend.

How to choose?

* If you will drive mostly in freeways I can assure you that a 1.6L car spent less fuel than a 1L car, cause it revs much less to get the same speed and speed is something hard to negotiate in freeways.

* Why do you North American friends say that new compact cars aren´t gonna save you money? How expensive are they? Doesn´t the 3 big produce any 1.5 Liter car in the US? I would like to see some "factual maths" so I can understand your "change to small OR NOT" arguments...

* Want to buy a small low fuel drinking old car because is cheaper? But the possibility of big repairing bills frighten you? DO IT YOURSELF! I know you wont be able to change the cranckshaft that easily at first but there are many things you can learn to avoid visiting the mechanic at a monthly basis. I own a 1998 car since October 2007 and have never ever visited a mechanic. I changed braking pads, oil and filters myself only in a few minutes (make sure you take all safety precautions for working under a lifted car). Of course I bought the car in a very good condition, used car sellers could hardly cheat on me. So, before buying a used car ask your "expert in mechanics" friend to take a look at it? You all F1 fans should at least know 1 person in the world who knows at first glance if a running engine needs rings changing or valves need to be regulated. You can check for yourself if the chassis suffered impacts (analyze paintjob, corrotion tracks) and at last but not least: suspension and brakes: they are cheap spare parts and easy to repair so mechanics should not charge yo much for them. Make sure they dont "invent" problems that doesnt exist when you take your car to them. Get used to pay attention to the noises your car does when driving (at neutral) and you will easily detect if the problem is a homocinetic joint, a wheel bearing or just your braking pad worn out and there is a metal-metal contact against the disk.

3) Reduce car usage: for short distances use a bike unless there are no proper road conditions. As Carlos pointed out drivers may be rude with bikers but in the other way in many places there are "bike exclusive pathways". For even shorter distances just walk. If you have a good public transport service (not an option in Argentina) then use it! If you know your neightbour works near you and has the same time sketchual then share your ride!
For instance, I pick up two guys that work with me in the same plant every morning. Sometimes we go in my car, sometimes in one of their car. The last guy that has no car contributes with some bucks for fuel, not as much as he would spend coming by bus.
I was really astonished when I saw North American Freeways on TV: there are exclusive lanes for more than 1 passenger cars... totally EMPTY!!! when a traffic jam is actually going on on the other 4 or 5 lane. Why don´t you share people?

I hope you can at least use some of these advices!

[Ray]

Well Belatti, you have very good points. I was going to meticulously reply to every point but I'm not.

All of you that laugh at me for having a truck, that gets 21mpg average I might add, can laugh knowing your heart is black. Record fuel prices might cost me my job. At the jet engine plant I work at there are talks about possible layoffs later this year due to fuel prices. Still laughing? Cause I really don't find it the least bit humorous.

[Belatti]

Well Ray, I´m sure they were laughing about the fact you can choose to change for a more economic vehicle, but certainly not about the fact you may loose your job.

You still can reply to every point if you wish, ay least I would like to learn about what does the automotive market offers you there to minimize these hits...

I have returned from holidays and have driven for first time a friend´s Jeep Cherokee I posted in other thread: the 4.0L turbodiesel "drinks" 15 liters every 100 kilometres at 130kmh and we had a 2000 miles total trip: 480 litres of diesel burnt out
Of course that my lil VW Gol was not an option for 4 persons with lugagge and snowboards...

[flynfrog]

Well Belatti, you have very good points. I was going to meticulously reply to every point but I'm not.

All of you that laugh at me for having a truck, that gets 21mpg average I might add, can laugh knowing your heart is black. Record fuel prices might cost me my job. At the jet engine plant I work at there are talks about possible layoffs later this year due to fuel prices. Still laughing? Cause I really don't find it the least bit humorous.

bull I design jet engines and we cant hire enough people in our plant. The turbine industry hasn't slowed down one bit. Call me a black heart all you want at least I can accept responsibility for my choices. Believe it or not its not our govts job to make sure you can afford to drive a truck as you please.

[Conceptual]

Well Belatti, you have very good points. I was going to meticulously reply to every point but I'm not.

All of you that laugh at me for having a truck, that gets 21mpg average I might add, can laugh knowing your heart is black. Record fuel prices might cost me my job. At the jet engine plant I work at there are talks about possible layoffs later this year due to fuel prices. Still laughing? Cause I really don't find it the least bit humorous.

Then I guess that you should get together with your work colleagues, and make a point of NOT VOTING for oilmen this time around...

I don't know why people are surprised at these fuel prices. What else do you expect from a White House operated by two Oilmen?

Chris

[Ciro Pabón]

I still have no OICA data, but I thought this info could be interesting.

Data for vehicle production in North America (well, actually in Mexico, Canada and USA), January-September 2008/2007/2006.

I find puzzling that Honda produces more vehicles than Toyota. That's, of course, for vehicles built in the territories of Mexico, Canada and US.

Source: http://wardsauto.com







Note: after past experiences, ANY rant about any country in this thread will be deleted. Actually, even a hint of a rant.

[WhiteBlue]

VW and BMW are increasing production over the three years. No surprise considering that their cars are fairly fuel efficient.

Subaru also. That's probably switchers that go for small pickups and snow capable station waggons away from GM.

[donskar]

Note: after past experiences, ANY rant about any country in this thread will be deleted. Actually, even a hint of a rant.

Thank you, Ciro!

RE: Honda producing more thanToyota - many Toyotas sold in the US are still built in Japan.

[GTO]

Honda also had increased production.

I was going to ask what CAMI, NUMMI & AutoAlliance were, but found it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAMI_Automotive
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NUMMI
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AutoAlliance_International

No doubt that 2009 figures will show ever sharper production drops as there have been numerous plant closures & layoffs in Canada & US this year.

[Ciro Pabón]

Thanks, GTO, I had no idea. I thought those brands were Canadian assemblers or something like that.

I'm left with the impression that CAMI and Auto Alliance are, somehow, Suzuki and Mazda's ways to enter the American market, while NUMMI is an improbable joint venture between Toyota and General Motors (caramba! let's talk about price fixing...). NUMMI appears to be a relic of when GM thought that they could learn something from Toyota and Toyota thought of entering production in the US. At this time, GM surely has learned something: maybe it's like "do not allow japanese automakers to enter your market!"

I also see that the "Others" category is going down.

I'm astonished at the difference in the "hit" the three american "native" automakers took, compared with much smaller decreases in the three big japanese firms (Honda, Nissan and Toyota). Same goes for the smaller production figures of german firms that are stable or increased, as WB noted.

I doubt there is any other market in the world like the north american one, where light trucks represents such a large proportion of manufacturing.

I wonder if the market is ripe for a new kind of low gas consumption, nice looking, tough, with space for cargo, light truck that replaces the monsters american automakers have accostumed us to. I mean, the F-150 design is like 50 years old or more... perhaps it can be improved.

I think of something like Farmer Bob's Prius, down to the wire in fuel costs, but that can carry a refrigerator or a calf down the Yukon, to appeal to the "just in case" segment...

I don't think crossovers caters to that "slice of the market". Notice most of the hit was in light truck production, which decreased in nine months by almost one million vehicles. In my book, that's a lot, well beyond the combined production of all the small automakers (that is, automakers not into the group that I now could call "the big six" ).

I don't have any figures for sales (or imports), donskar: it would be interesting to have them before OICA publishes its data in March, next year. I'm not a paying member of Wardsauto, so I cannot watch the data for european or asian production, I hope for some charitable soul who has the data to read this.

Without that figures, what stares to me in the face in the posted graphs is that NASCAR will be hit harder by the recession than Formula One.

[donskar]

Ciro, when you wrote "Without that figures, what stares to me in the face in the posted graphs is that NASCAR will be hit harder by the recession than Formula One." did you mean NASCAR would lose sponsorship? Or factory support?

A couple points to consider:
As a portion of the overall marketing budget, NASCAR is a pretty small %. Of course, if a company gets to the edge of bankruptcy, then they might pull the plug, but not before.

In terms of sponsorship, I follow the marketing business pretty closely. A couple years ago research showed that NASCAR fans were the most loyal group definable in terms of their supporting sponsors. In other words, anyone who sponsors a NASCAR team or driver can count on a very loyal base of customers.

I think the worst outcome would be to see Chrysler (Dodge) and/or Ford withdrawing. Toyota would pick up the unsupported teams and would soon totally dominate NASCAR. Very bad.

On another point:
Nissan will build Chrysler's new compact and Dodge will build Nissan trucks. GM turned down Nissan-Renault's merger overtures, but now is discussing merger with Chrysler (the marriage of an impotent man and a frigid woman, IMHO). An interesting potential next step would be a merger of GM-Chrysler and Renault-Nissan. Now THAT would be interesting!

[donskar]

Oops - one more tidbit for comment: Ford is looking for a buyer for Mazda, and Toyota is interested.

[Carlos]

For an interesting perspective on auto sales and manufacturing, this noted commentator is considered a maverick expert, in view of the validity of his perspective, he is becoming a mainstream expert.

http://www.autoextremist.com/

EDIT - Ciro & donskar - Peter M De Lorenzo writes the lead column for autoextremist, several examine N America's product mix and his 'Fumes' columns have targeted manufacturer withdrawal and budget cuts to NASCAR programs. Actually Ciro; in the mid-80's 2 categories were introduced that mirror your suggestions - the Minivan and Mini pickup truck, it's probably the perfect time for their return, yes Minivans are still made but over 20 plus years they have bloated in size. It's interesting, there is a current reaction questioning the wisdom of driving a big box SUV (ie Ford Navigator/ Caddie Escalade et al) from your big box homes (3500sqft) to the edge of suburbia to a retail landscape of big box stores and the question of energy efficiencies. Urban planners are starting to consider recycling big box retail into other uses - health clinics, schools, civic cent res and multi-store formats. There's a book just released on the subject, the title doesn't come to mind directly. I do remember De Lorenzo wrote The United States of Toyota. I visited a CAMI plant in Ingersoll Ontario in about '94, it's a joint venture of Suzuki and General Motors, at the time it produced microcars, the Suzuki Swift and Geo Metro ( I was with a GM exec that distainfully called them 'jelly beans' - a reference to the size and small profit margins (a 50MPG lightweight)now I believe it makes mini SUVs.

OT - Quiet a long post for me

[Ciro Pabón]

Ciro, when you wrote "Without that figures, what stares to me in the face in the posted graphs is that NASCAR will be hit harder by the recession than Formula One." did you mean NASCAR would lose sponsorship? Or factory support?

Both. Of course, losing 20% of your sales must hurt the manufacturers. I imagine that indirect promotions, like sports, could be hit. Even if you're right and that's a small percentage, a cash strapped company could diminish its level of support.

Anyway, that's not the most important effect, as I think your post implies: the lack of sales shows (just my opinion) that the loyal supporters of NASCAR are feeling the economic pinch. When you have to choose between fuel for winter heat and a NASCAR T-shirt of Juan Montoya, for me the choice is clear: I'll go with the T-shirt! Just joking. As I quote later in this post, is hard to keep sponsorship at the same level when you're firing workers.

Nonwithstanding Carlos article (thanks, mate, really a good one!) I disagree as usual and I think mergers are to be expected. For an outrageous example, you could check a short article on what's happening to banks, here: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/busin ... =1&_r=1&hp

The guy that writes the article is an insider, so probably I'm wrong, but the last time I checked Renault's shares were 60% down. That's not small potatoes. It undercuts any stock swap Mr. Goshn could attempt. I quote Grand Prix:

"Renault has already announced plans to cut 6,000 jobs and there are no plans to try to break into the US market. The company plans remains to expand in Russia, India and in South America, which are all growth markets for F1 as well.

Ghosn has always said that that the F1 programme must earn its keep and the win in Singapore, fortuitous though it was, has helped but the key issue is whether Ghosn is willing to keep the budget at the right level at a time when pouring money into the sport is not easy, given that thousands are losing their jobs."

http://www.grandprix.com/ns/ns20839.html October 6/2008

Automakers are also asking the Feds for some cash. They're not going to use it to design new cars, I bet.

[riff_raff]

I was just joking with you all about the "Canadian" build quality on my '02 Chevy truck. It's now got 80K miles and it's still tight and running like a Swiss watch. I bought it new and have not had one single problem with it in 6 years.

As for those of you that said I should walk or bike to work since it's 1-1/2 miles, you completely missed the point. I had the same argument with a co-worker that drives a Toyota Prius and is constantly patting herself on the back for helping to save the earth.

I drive a "gas guzzling V8 truck" that gets about 15 mpg, but I only drive about 3 miles per day. So I use about 1 gallon of gas per week driving to work. On the other hand, my "environmentally conscious" co-worker drives a Honda Fit that gets about 33 mpg, but she drives almost 40 miles each way to work, thus using over 12 gallons of gas per week.

So who's the bigger polluter?