2026 Pecking order predictions

[Matt2725]

I can't get my head around the bias so many have against Russell.

I can only assume because he's the closest threat to another Verstappen title or a first for Leclerc.

It is not bias against George to claim Max/Charles would beat him in a slightly inferior car lol. He is probably still the 3rd best driver on the grid.

It is also not bias to claim that Max would likely beat Charles in a slightly inferior car.

Idiotic statements like

and not the 5 races in the row that George did well for once in his life

are most certainly riddled with bias, and do not have any place in serious conversation.
I guess you aren't interested in talking about Leclerc's dismal pole to win ratio, or the fact Max has never had a serious competitive teammate next to him?

[dia6olo]

This is all obviously guesswork, but I would say McLaren had a massive advantage in races last summer which reduced to around 2 tenths over Redbull for the last 3rd of the season. Lando is on record this season talking about how they could actually afford to drive slower last year because of the advantage they had. And for the last 3rd, we all know the numbers Max made up on the McLaren drivers.

My only point is that a “tenth or two” is in the realm of being able to defend, either with special quali efforts or strong defending in races. And I would personally bet on Max and Charles over George in this scenario. There is the unknown of Lewis of course

It's amazing how people make up stuff about Max and Charles being better than George, while Charles has dunked a lot of races while he had a great car and Max basically a torpedo in wheel to wheel racing. Last year, when Max had a better car for 2/3rd of the season, he couldn't beat Lando, despite Lando's mistakes and misfortune. Facts are facts. George never had a consistent car so far in F1. Whenever the car was there, he has put it on pole and has won it often when it had race pace. But it's too much to ask for a fair analysis. Until there is a good sample size to prove a point, claiming anything is a false analysis.

I’d argue that Leclerc has cost himself a grand total of one win in his career through his own mistakes. That being France 2022. Apart from that one race, almost every win he has lost out on was the result of Ferrari messing up strategy, the engine giving up on him or the car simply not having the pace.

You could potentially argue that he lost Baku 2024 due to his own mistakes, but without the illegal flexi-wing used by Piastri he would have gotten past him.

Leclerc being mistake prone isn’t true. He’s extremely consistent. He’s quite clearly the second best driver on the grid, adjusted for luck.

100% agree, as things currently stand, I also think Leclerc is the only driver on the grid who I feel could give Max a run for his money in equally competent machinery.

[SB15]

I can't get my head around the bias so many have against Russell.

I can only assume because he's the closest threat to another Verstappen title or a first for Leclerc.

It is not bias against George to claim Max/Charles would beat him in a slightly inferior car lol. He is probably still the 3rd best driver on the grid.

It is also not bias to claim that Max would likely beat Charles in a slightly inferior car.

The guy gotten multiple podiums plus 2 wins last year in a Mercedes that only worked in certain conditions...

[SB15]

It's amazing how people make up stuff about Max and Charles being better than George, while Charles has dunked a lot of races while he had a great car and Max basically a torpedo in wheel to wheel racing. Last year, when Max had a better car for 2/3rd of the season, he couldn't beat Lando, despite Lando's mistakes and misfortune. Facts are facts. George never had a consistent car so far in F1. Whenever the car was there, he has put it on pole and has won it often when it had race pace. But it's too much to ask for a fair analysis. Until there is a good sample size to prove a point, claiming anything is a false analysis.

I’d argue that Leclerc has cost himself a grand total of one win in his career through his own mistakes. That being France 2022. Apart from that one race, almost every win he has lost out on was the result of Ferrari messing up strategy, the engine giving up on him or the car simply not having the pace.

You could potentially argue that he lost Baku 2024 due to his own mistakes, but without the illegal flexi-wing used by Piastri he would have gotten past him.

Leclerc being mistake prone isn’t true. He’s extremely consistent. He’s quite clearly the second best driver on the grid, adjusted for luck.

100% agree, as things currently stand, I also think Leclerc is the only driver on the grid who I feel could give Max a run for his money in equally competent machinery.

I don't think that's fair because we didn't really get to see many instances of Russell racing wheel to wheel with Max often. But I will agree that George's weakness is maybe his tyre management skills, but that's something he can considerably improve on.

[nitrotech]

I’d argue that Leclerc has cost himself a grand total of one win in his career through his own mistakes. That being France 2022. Apart from that one race, almost every win he has lost out on was the result of Ferrari messing up strategy, the engine giving up on him or the car simply not having the pace.

You could potentially argue that he lost Baku 2024 due to his own mistakes, but without the illegal flexi-wing used by Piastri he would have gotten past him.

Leclerc being mistake prone isn’t true. He’s extremely consistent. He’s quite clearly the second best driver on the grid, adjusted for luck.

100% agree, as things currently stand, I also think Leclerc is the only driver on the grid who I feel could give Max a run for his money in equally competent machinery.

I don't think that's fair because we didn't really get to see many instances of Russell racing wheel to wheel with Max often. But I will agree that George's weakness is maybe his tyre management skills, but that's something he can considerably improve on.

Tyre management is car dependent. Basic fact. The biggest issue Mercedes cars have had in the GE era was that. It has been there in Mercedes DNA. I can give a hundred examples of Max and Charles suffering the tyre issues. On the other hand, George's 2024 Spa defense on worn out tyre is a worthy example to consider how he can drive on worn tyres if the tyres can hold on.

[purestpurist]

I can't get my head around the bias so many have against Russell.

I can only assume because he's the closest threat to another Verstappen title or a first for Leclerc.

I've noticed certain Hamilton fans have an axe to grind with Russell because they feel he was too focused on beating Hamilton when they were teammates. You saw it a bit in 2022 when Russell's success was chalked up to Hamilton running "experimental setups" and apparently not trying. There was probably some truth to that and Hamilton did bounce back in 2023 but it struck me as disingenuous at the time

[CMSMJ1]

The driver Yin-Yang is always fraught with dangers and the chances of being rude to your fellow forumites.

Let's revert to the topic eh?

[CHT]

Barring any last minute PU rule changes, I am going to guess that team with the most efficient MGU-K will dominate this season. Unlike last year PU where 80% power comes from ICE, where one can tell from the engine rev, its now harder to tell if the team is turning down its MGU-K to hide its truth pace.

Perhaps 2026 excitement will come from guessing who is sand bagging their MGU-K and how this is going to affect team's pitstop and tyre strategies

[BorisTheBlade]

T1
Mercedes, Ferrari

T2 +0,2s
RBR, McLaren

T3 +1,0s
Alpine, Haas

T4 +1,3s
Williams, Audi

T5 +1,5s
VCARB

T6 +2,5s
Cadillac

T7 DNF
Aston

For reference, my prediction from Nov. 15th.

T1
Ast, Mer, McL

T2 +0,3s
Fer, Wil, RBR

T3 +0,6s
Alpine

T4 +1s
VCARB, Haas, Audi

T5 +1,5s
Cadillac

[Badger]

T1
Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren

T2 +0,3s
Red Bull

T3 +1,0s
Alpine, Haas

T4 +1,25s
Audi, Williams, VCARB

T5 +2,5s
Cadillac

T
Aston

[Anony Mous Engineerd]

Audi is going to surprise people. They have become experts at the craft of hiding performance in tests ( BOP anyone??) and will be way faster in Australia. easy top 10 team and a podium before the end of the year.

[AR3-GP]

T1
Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren

T2 +0,3s
Red Bull

T3 +1,0s
Alpine, Haas

T4 +1,25s
Audi, Williams, VCARB

T5 +2,5s
Cadillac

T
Aston

Add 3-4 tenths to every tier. Then I agree.

[organic]

T1
Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren

T2 +0,3s
Red Bull

T3 +1,0s
Alpine, Haas

T4 +1,25s
Audi, Williams, VCARB

T5 +2,5s
Cadillac

T
Aston

Add 3-4 tenths to every tier. Then I agree.

You think Red bull will end up 6-7 tenths off Ferrari/Merc/McLaren? I could see 4-5 tenths off Ferrari/Merc but not McLaren.

[AR3-GP]

T1
Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren

T2 +0,3s
Red Bull

T3 +1,0s
Alpine, Haas

T4 +1,25s
Audi, Williams, VCARB

T5 +2,5s
Cadillac

T
Aston

Add 3-4 tenths to every tier. Then I agree.

You think Red bull will end up 6-7 tenths off Ferrari/Merc/McLaren? I could see 4-5 tenths off Ferrari/Merc but not McLaren.

Mclaren is probably closer to Merc/Ferrari (1-2 tenths) than they are to Red Bull. I think Mekies and co were spot on. The others are "well ahead". Red Bull's race simulations in Bahrain were poor. RB is probably overweight by 8-10kgs as well.

[FrukostScones]

Audi is going to surprise people. They have become experts at the craft of hiding performance in tests ( BOP anyone??) and will be way faster in Australia. easy top 10 team and a podium before the end of the year.

Audi is definitely better than (I) expected.

They have maybe good energy management and will suprise in Melbourne, they race sim was not bad. Actually too good. Not better than Merc, McLaren, Ferrari or Redbull but still better than Haas and RBVACARB.

Also for me it is impossible to see who of the big four is really in front.Their sims did not really differ that much. Only interesting who sandbagged the least, historically it is Ferrari... or?
It might be actually McLaren and RedBull who are the fastest? Or is Merc to mighty. We will se.

Big Four: Mercedes, McLaren (still tyre advantage?), Ferrari, Red Bull.
(btw: former f1 driver and German commentator Christian Danner said Ferrai will not be title contender? What??? )
Also if Audi really surprises then maybe it could e 5th? But don't really think so,
but Alpine, Audi and Haas could be the mid group.
then RBVCARB and Williams
then Cadillac
Aston Martin GP2

puh, I think the season will be great! The racing might will be different, but very entertaining.