2026 Pecking order predictions

[the EDGE]

Audi is going to surprise people. They have become experts at the craft of hiding performance in tests ( BOP anyone??) and will be way faster in Australia. easy top 10 team and a podium before the end of the year.

If you mean fighting in the midfield, you could be right, but let’s not forget they’re just the same Sauber team, with a different name

Took Mercedes 5 years to break through, and they were the current world championship team combined with an experienced (and current) world championship engine manufacturer, in an era where there was unlimited spending

[V10FURY]

Audi is going to surprise people. They have become experts at the craft of hiding performance in tests ( BOP anyone??) and will be way faster in Australia. easy top 10 team and a podium before the end of the year.

I agree 100% with this. Hulkenberg will get another podium this year either at a wet race or Monaco where he is very handy. Both drivers are good enough to mix it up in the points if the team can bring upgrades over the season.

[FrukostScones]

I rolled the dice one again:

1. RedBull / Ferrari
2. McLaren / Mercedes
3. Audi
4. Haas / Alpine
5. RBVCARB
6. Williams
7. Aston Martin
8. Cadillac

[K1Plus]

My final prediction, let's hope it's right.
1. Ferrari
2. Mercedes
3. McLaren
4. Red Bull
5. Alpine
6. Audi
7. Haas
8. VCARB
9. Wiliams
10. Cadillac
11. Aston Martin

[continuum16]

AUS FP1 in ~3h. Last chance to ask the magic 8-Ball...

Start of Season
1. Merc
2. Ferrari/Max (+0.3s)
3. McLaren (+0.5s)
4. Hadjar (+0.8s)
-absolutely massive gulf-
5. Alpine/Audi/Haas (+1.6s)
6. VCARB (+1.9s)
7. Williams (+2.5s)
8. Cadillac (+3.0s)
9. Aston (+3.0s but DNF all the time)

End of Season
1. Merc/Max
2. Ferrari/McLaren (+0.3s)
3. Hadjar (+0.8s)
-absolutely massive gulf-
4. Alpine/Audi (+1.3s)
5. Haas/VCARB/Williams (+1.8s)
6. Aston Martin (+2.2s and they still DNF all the time)
7. Cadillac (+3.5s)

[Vettel165]

My final prediction.

1. Red Bull
2. Mercedes
3. Ferrari
4. Mclaren
5. Alpine
6. VCARB
7. Williams
8. Haas
9. Audi
10. Aston Martin
11. Cadillac

[organic]

Merc
Red bull +0.2
Ferrari 0.3
McLaren 0.4

Alpine 0.8
Audi 1s
Haas 1s
Racing bulls 1.3
Cadillac 1.8
Williams 2s
Honda 2.5s or n/a

[euv2]

Mercedes
Red bull +0.2
Ferrari +0.3
McLaren +0.4
Alpine +1.0
Haas +1.1
Racing Bulls +1.3
Audi +1.5
Williams +1.6
Aston Martin +2.5
Cadillac +2.8

[AR3-GP]

Live update:
Merc
Mclaren +3 tenths
Ferrari +4 tenths
Red Bull +6 tenths

[nitrotech]

Live update:
Merc
Mclaren +3 tenths
Ferrari +4 tenths
Red Bull +6 tenths

I am really curious to see, with Newey out of Red Bull and the ground effect era gone that has brought Mercedes back, how is Red Bull going to come back to the front.

Ferrari is Ferrari. I doubt if they can maintain the steam of consistent development of the car throughout the season. At some point in the season, there will be one upgrade that will take them backwards and they start chasing their tails and they shift their focus on next year's car.

Only McLaren remains to challenge Mercedes. If Mercedes upgrades the car like they used to do pre ground effect era, then it would be difficult for McLaren to match them, even with their best efforts.

At what point does the announcement of Max to Mercedes would come, would be another interesting point for the season. It would be the end of road for Red Bull.

[SB15]

Live update:
Merc
Mclaren +3 tenths
Ferrari +4 tenths
Red Bull +6 tenths

I am really curious to see, with Newey out of Red Bull and the ground effect era gone that has brought Mercedes back, how is Red Bull going to come back to the front.

Ferrari is Ferrari. I doubt if they can maintain the steam of consistent development of the car throughout the season. At some point in the season, there will be one upgrade that will take them backwards and they start chasing their tails and they shift their focus on next year's car.

Only McLaren remains to challenge Mercedes. If Mercedes upgrades the car like they used to do pre ground effect era, then it would be difficult for McLaren to match them, even with their best efforts.

At what point does the announcement of Max to Mercedes would come, would be another interesting point for the season. It would be the end of road for Red Bull.

no... Seriously doubt Toto or even Mercedes would consider the switch. At best, having "verstappenracing.com" is as close as "Max to Mercedes' as we're going to get.

[Emag]

After the barcelona shakedown, if we go add in the "preparedness" on top of the recency bias, I would put them on these tiers :

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari/RedBull
3. RedBull/McLaren -> Only because of the "overheating" rumors, not sure where to keep RedBull. But they're honestly unsubstantiated, so probably on the same tier as Ferrari. I am just generally expecting McLaren to start "slow" compared to the previous top 4.
4. Alpine
5. Haas/RacingBulls
6. Cadillac/Audi

Aston Martin ??
Williams ???

It seems the top bit of this was relatively accurate even though it was mostly based on vibes when I made it. Evidently RedBull is on that second category and McLaren are 4th.

Didn't think it would be 8 tenths to Mercedes though. That's a big oof.

[euv2]

After the barcelona shakedown, if we go add in the "preparedness" on top of the recency bias, I would put them on these tiers :

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari/RedBull
3. RedBull/McLaren -> Only because of the "overheating" rumors, not sure where to keep RedBull. But they're honestly unsubstantiated, so probably on the same tier as Ferrari. I am just generally expecting McLaren to start "slow" compared to the previous top 4.
4. Alpine
5. Haas/RacingBulls
6. Cadillac/Audi

Aston Martin ??
Williams ???

It seems the top bit of this was relatively accurate even though it was mostly based on vibes when I made it. Evidently RedBull is on that second category and McLaren are 4th.

Didn't think it would be 8 tenths to Mercedes though. That's a big oof.

It's a big oof from Mclaren, no excuse in being so far off, especially with the same engine. RBR have done a good job with the PU, but underdelivered with the chassis, Ferrari seems to down on both, but specially the engine, very poor results considering they sacked all of last season.

[Emag]

After the barcelona shakedown, if we go add in the "preparedness" on top of the recency bias, I would put them on these tiers :

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari/RedBull
3. RedBull/McLaren -> Only because of the "overheating" rumors, not sure where to keep RedBull. But they're honestly unsubstantiated, so probably on the same tier as Ferrari. I am just generally expecting McLaren to start "slow" compared to the previous top 4.
4. Alpine
5. Haas/RacingBulls
6. Cadillac/Audi

Aston Martin ??
Williams ???

It seems the top bit of this was relatively accurate even though it was mostly based on vibes when I made it. Evidently RedBull is on that second category and McLaren are 4th.

Didn't think it would be 8 tenths to Mercedes though. That's a big oof.

It's a big oof from Mclaren, no excuse in being so far off, especially with the same engine. RBR have done a good job with the PU, but underdelivered with the chassis, Ferrari seems to down on both, but specially the engine, very poor results considering they sacked all of last season.

People had big expectations for McLaren because of the back to back WCC, but they were just unproven going into the blind so I think that expectation was a bit unwarranted. I was expecting them to be 4th to start the season before we even got to Barcelona (and I should have another comment in one of these threads saying that).

When I saw the car (and I know some people wont like that I stick with this comment), I was pretty much convinced they were going to be 4th from Barcelona. I just didn't like what I saw because it looked way too conservative.

If McLaren can maintain the same development prowess they have shown in the last 2 years though, I wouldn't be surprised if they finish the season as the 2nd fastest team. Although I had "hopes" some would eventually catch up to Mercedes this year, I am inclined to believe this season is just done after seeing the gaps.

Quali is not even the biggest problem, Mercedes are so damn consistent on the long runs, I am expecting them to win by a minute tomorrow. People were complaining about dominance last year, I think they will get a taste of a real proper dominance this year ...

[Artur Craft]

So, we mostly got it wrong. The pecking order seems to be:

Mercedes

RB, Mclaren
Ferrari

Racing Bulls
Audi
Haas
Williams
Alpine

AM pace-wise
Caddie