astracrazy wrote:b) did you watch the first part of the season when he come back from 25 points down?
You know, we're really on the same side here. In pretty much the entirety of my post, I'm not doubting Lewis's ability and talent. And yes, I have watched the entire season so far, at the very edge my couch and am as annoyed as anyone when slow pitstops or other factors (like Lewis himself on Saturday) come into play.
My point is more; There's no logical reason that Nico is more likely to suffer a DNF than Lewis. Similar to a roulette table, even after a red came 10 times in a row, the propability of it either being a black or white, is still 50/50 on the next turn (well, 49.999, because of the 0 field, but lets just ignore that). If DNFs are in anyway related to how a car is driven, and even if this factor weights less than a percent in the grand scheme of things, Nico still has the odds stacked in his favour (for now) because he is leading the WDC with a comfortable margin, so can
afford to take less risks.
It's a mental game really, and in this mental game, it all comes down to how far Lewis feels he needs to push to beat Nico. And I think on Saturday, part of that mental game has already caused some error / overdriving. There are countless examples of this mental aspect; in Tennis, playing against Rafael Nadal ie. means that any player trying to beat him will try to play closer to the corners/lines then perhaps against other players where winning shots with margins might be enough. Playing closer to the corners/lines means you are more likely to hit an unforced error. It's really the same in driving too - if you know your opponent is that strong (which he is, all credit to Nico), you tend to drive with less margin perhaps.
The larger the WDC gap is, the more *this* will become apparent IMO.
As I said, I'm not doubting Lewis's skill in anyway. But surely, the (growing) gap in the WDC means anything but good news. We might still be early in the whole WDC race and in that sense, 29 points in peanuts, but at the same time, I can't help but think, Canada (out of his hands) and Austria are the races he should have won - and races where he did show that he had the pace to do so. Not winning these, only means that the pressure to win the next race is higher.
Also, given both Mercedes are likely to qualify ahead of any other cars, makes a DNF less likely IMO. Because with the margin they still have relative to the opposition, they can manage their race better, similar to how Vettel could do this during the years of Redbull dominance. If you get tanglet up in the midfield, there's a higher probability for things to go wrong or DNFs to happen (Webber). Since Hamilton and Nico are both likely to be ahead of them, even having technical issues can be managed quite well (Rosberg in Canada).
The sole fact that both Mercedes drivers are effectively battling for win and 2nd vs DNF makes this entire a race a very mentally intense one.
