What are the odds of Alonso losing it?

[turbof1]

I also think tyre wear is less of an issue for McLaren than might be thought... McLaren's latest set of upgrades really seem to have them on top of that.

They still have more tyre wear then Red Bull or Ferrari, but not much more. They make that up with better starting positions, initial race pace and fast pit stops. Ultimately, it doesn't really hurt them.

[beelsebob]

I also think tyre wear is less of an issue for McLaren than might be thought... McLaren's latest set of upgrades really seem to have them on top of that.

They still have more tyre wear then Red Bull or Ferrari, but not much more. They make that up with better starting positions, initial race pace and fast pit stops. Ultimately, it doesn't really hurt them.

I'm not convinced – at Singapore, Vettel stopped on lap 9 because his tyres had gone, the McLarens carried on until laps 12 and 14 with no problems.

Then again, Button did seem to have problems towards the end of the race. I don't think you can clear cut say one is better than the other.

[turbof1]

I also think tyre wear is less of an issue for McLaren than might be thought... McLaren's latest set of upgrades really seem to have them on top of that.

They still have more tyre wear then Red Bull or Ferrari, but not much more. They make that up with better starting positions, initial race pace and fast pit stops. Ultimately, it doesn't really hurt them.

I'm not convinced – at Singapore, Vettel stopped on lap 9 because his tyres had gone, the McLarens carried on until laps 12 and 14 with no problems.

Then again, Button did seem to have problems towards the end of the race. I don't think you can clear cut say one is better than the other.

It's difficult to measure that indeed. Hamilton was just cruising; he didn't made the tyres work as hard as Vettel; Button always looked like he was more about conserving the tyres so that he could make a push towards the end of the stint.
Of course it is a trade off, and IMO tyre wear can't be looked seperately from the pace.

[Miguel]

Decimal odds at Betfair today with a market volume of 1.2 mil GBP
Fernando Alonso 1.58
Sebastian Vettel 4.1
Lewis Hamilton 12
Kimi Räikkönen 44
Jenson Button 100
Mark Webber 95

Anything exceeding 10 is highly unlikely. So I would agree with Jenson Button that it has become a two horse race between Alonso and Vettel with an outside chance for Vettel.

Are those odds fine? I mean, the odds seem a bit pessimistic overall and the bookies don't seem to have much margin. Regardless, I do think Hamilton has a non-negligible chance at the title: if McLaren are so far back is because they'be been shooting themselves throughout the season. It is not unlike RedBull in 2010; had the best car by far but somehow found themselves on the back foot with a few races to go.

[Nando]

Those could change over night.

Imagine Alonso having a mechanical problem in any of the 6 races. Odds would turn on it´s head.
Assuming Vettel wins that race then it´s all of a sudden a couple of points to him.
Hamilton would be way closer as well.

[astracrazy]

i still feel its Alonso's to lose

Going into the summer break it looked like this (pts)

Mark Webber -40
Sebastian Vettel -42
Lewis Hamilton -47
Kimi Raikkonen -48

now:
Vettel -29
Kimi -45
Lewis -52
Webber -62

The only person who has managed to make any gain on Alonso in the last 3 races is Vettel. Its a shame Lewis has has 2 DNF's - he'd be closer than Vettel

if we move 3 races forward, i'd expect Lewis to be the one to make the bigger gains and be closer to Alonso than anyone else. Which will still be in Alonso's favor. In my eyes, Alonso's got the other drivers where he wants them.

Don't rule out Kimi. The device might give Kimi that extra performance to get 1 or 2 wins in the next couple of races. He'd be getting the wins exactly when it matters.

[bhall]

Those could change over night.

Imagine Alonso having a mechanical problem in any of the 6 races. Odds would turn on it´s head.
Assuming Vettel wins that race then it´s all of a sudden a couple of points to him.
Hamilton would be way closer as well.

It's true. Betting odds are as sensible as a Magic 8 Ball or a Ouija board. And they still have no place on a technical forum.

[raymondu999]

I think it's a 3-horse race now. I don't think Vettel or Hamilton are out of it - not by a long shot.

Raikkonen I don't think can mount a strong enough challenge. If not for him, for the machinery.

In fact I think Red Bull and McLaren could be about to bounce back in the points, if Jenson/Mark steps up to the number 2 position. They can actually take points off the competition, unlike Felipe, sad to say.

In other news, does anyone remember when Fernando last retired with reliability? To memory, it's 2010 Malaysia

[astracrazy]

i know his due a little bit of bad luck. I dunno bout failures but in general:

Since the start of 2010 to now:

Alonso had one DNF per season
Button has had 2 per season in 2010 and 11 and 1 this year
Vettel 2010 = 2 2011 and 2012 = 1 per season
Lewis has had 3 per season

If we exclude 2011, because Vettel was unstopable, makes you think how many more championships Lewis would have.

[Gerhard Berger]

i know his due a little bit of bad luck. I dunno bout failures but in general:

Since the start of 2010 to now:

Alonso had one DNF per season
Button has had 2 per season in 2010 and 11 and 1 this year
Vettel 2010 = 2 2011 and 2012 = 1 per season
Lewis has had 3 per season

If we exclude 2011, because Vettel was unstopable, makes you think how many more championships Lewis would have.

and how about car performance since then? I'd say on average, the Ferrari has been the worst of all the top 3 cars.

[turbof1]

I dont think you can compare this to previous seasons. The situation is completely different. Back in 2010 for instance Ferraro was much closer concerning performance towards the fastest car. This time around the fastest car is well behind in the points. It looks inevadeable that McLaren will close in, the question is by how much. That Ferrari is not going to break down, that is the most safest prediction in this whole story. For the rest it is all down "ifs".
One thing that might have been forgotten: McLaren broke down on Monza and Singapore, 2 circuits which put an enormous stress on the machinery. The next races are a little bit softer on the car, so that might be beneficial for them. If McLaren can rule out mechanical breakdowns, they still have it all in their hands.

[raymondu999]

i still feel its Alonso's to lose

Going into the summer break it looked like this (pts)

Mark Webber -40
Sebastian Vettel -42
Lewis Hamilton -47
Kimi Raikkonen -48

now:
Vettel -29
Kimi -45
Lewis -52
Webber -62

Why stop there? Let's look since the last change in pecking order - Hockenheim with McLaren's updates. Points gained since:

Vettel 65
Alonso 65
Button 65
Hamilton 50

Or if you wanna discount Hockenheim (with wet quali and all)

Then it becomes
Vettel 55
Button 47
Alonso 40
Hamilton 50

My point is - I don't think Alonso has this in the bag - and not even near the bag.

and how about car performance since then? I'd say on average, the Ferrari has been the worst of all the top 3 cars.

I'd argue that if you were to look at the season as a whole, the F2012 has been the "best" car since Barcelona - at least until the MP4-27B came at Hockenheim and has blown the field away since.

It's never the outright quickest - except maybe Monza. But it's the most reliable, and the most consistent.

While the rest of the field have been going up and down, dipping in and out of competitiveness as the tyre choices and track layouts change, the Ferrari has always been competitive (except for Singapore/Hungary).

It is, for lack of a better word - the "Alonso" of the pitlane. It's always there. It's like a rally car that wins a rally by being a close 2nd at every stage.

[Gerhard Berger]

I'd argue that if you were to look at the season as a whole, the F2012 has been the "best" car since Barcelona - at least until the MP4-27B came at Hockenheim and has blown the field away since.

It's never the outright quickest - except maybe Monza. But it's the most reliable, and the most consistent.

While the rest of the field have been going up and down, dipping in and out of competitiveness as the tyre choices and track layouts change, the Ferrari has always been competitive (except for Singapore/Hungary).

It is, for lack of a better word - the "Alonso" of the pitlane. It's always there. It's like a rally car that wins a rally by being a close 2nd at every stage.

Well if we do look at the season as a whole, we have the include the races before Barcelona. In the first 4 races, the F2012 was quite uncompetitive.

I agree that since Barcelona, it's been up there and pretty consistent, but never been the out right best (except as you say perhaps Monza). I'd argue that Red Bull have been as consistant or even more consistant over the season as a whole, but havn't had the reliablity.

[Nando]

Looked pretty competitive in Malaysia in the wet.

Or any wet session for that matter. Even when it was a dog.

[Gerhard Berger]

Looked pretty competitive in Malaysia in the wet.

Or any wet session for that matter. Even when it was a dog.

Only in Alonso's hands.