AR3-GP wrote: ↑03 Jan 2026, 18:47
sucof wrote: ↑03 Jan 2026, 18:41
I think you are just negative.
Fred did not say they will start slow or they will be P10 at the start... And of course he does not know either.
He said, correctly, that the cars will develop the fastest since many seasons... So the one who will be able the best in that catching up and developing race, might be the winner in 2026, where he is completely right.
Even if you win the first race, with that car you will be probably the last at the end of the season with no development.
Teams will see tons of solutions on other cars that is new to them, and they will first see truly how their car works in real race situations. So Fred is 100% correct.
Rarely does anything change. In 2009, 2014, and 2022, the championship was fought amongst those teams on the podium in the first race. The first race in a new regulation set has a great significance, contrary to what Frederick Vasseur claims. That is when each team's concept is put to the test and that is when those teams who understand the regulations reveal themselves, and the same for those who do not.
Those teams who arrive with a good car in the first weekend are already showing that they have understood the regulations. That also means they are best placed to understand how to develop the car. Those teams that arrive with bad concepts in Melbourne are unlikely to overturn a performance deficit because if you have misunderstood the regulations from the outset, how can you out develop a team that understands them?
Personally, I believe the Australian GP will give a good initial idea of how the pecking order will be under the new regulations, but I won't declare the championship fight will only be between the teams on the podium in that race.
With a change in regulations, it's very important to achieve a good result right from the start, because this shows that the team is among those that best understand the new regulations and can then focus on updates to improve the car's concept instead of having a bad result, wasting time trying to find the problem and trying to fix it during the season. If the problem is inherent to the car's concept itself, you can throw the whole season away and focus on a completely new car for 2027, because no update will solve that.
Updates help, but they don't work miracles. A team that has a terrible start to the season, starting at the back of the grid, is very unlikely to reach the Top 5 by the end of the season. The same can be said for WCC chances for the team that finishes the first 4-5 races of 2026 without a single podium.