2025 McLaren F1 Team

[rbirules]

It's a low probability event. When was the last time a top team driver driving the best car crashed out **multiple times** while leading the championship by 50+ points. Just doesn't happen. Need a bottle of the proportions that has never happened. So....

The lead wasn't quite 50 points, but Charles had a 46 point lead early in 2022 (after three races), and it was erased before the summer break (Spain PU DNF, Baku PU DNF, Canada grid penalty due to PU DNF, crash in France, strategy fiascos in Monaco and Silverstone) in part due to three DNFs. Actually it was erased in three races (after Spain Max was leading the WDC) with only one DNF. In a span of 9 races (Imola to France) in 2022 Max went from 46 points behind to 63 points in the lead, a swing of 107 points, and that's with Max getting damage in Silverstone and Charles winning in Austria.

Max just gained 35 points on Oscar in two weeks, but he doesn't need to maintain anything close to that pace. He's 69 points back with 7 race weekends to go. 10 points per weekend (with three sprints). A 1-3 finish each race for Max and Oscar, respectively, does it (Oscar can even get 2nd in the sprints). It doesn't require Oscar having multiple DNFs or dropping the ball, it doesn't even require one DNF at this point. Oscar can finish on the podium every race and still lose this WDC. Is that likely? No, Max would have to win out. Max/Red Bull's bogey track is this weekend. If Max wins in Singapore then this remote possibility starts to gain (even more) momentum, and that's with McLaren's bogey track (Vegas) still to come.

This happening almost entirely comes down to the upgraded RB21 being the best car (or a very close 2nd to MCL39) on all the remaining tracks.

When Max had the best car from mid-2022 through China 2024 he won 32 of 38 races (84.2% winning %, finishing second to his teammate in three of those, a mechanical DNF in Australia, and the other two non-2nd place finishes were Singapore). If Max and his car are on that level he's got a 30.0% chance of winning 7 races in a row. If you account for the fact that in this scenario his team wouldn't let him finish 2nd to Yuki (and Yuki hasn't been in front of him ever, like Checo occasionally was) then the beating all other cars % rises to 92.2%, and the chances of winning 7 races in a row becomes 56.2%.

Maybe you think it will be like the start of 2024 where Red Bull is dominant on some tracks and neck and neck with McLaren on others. Through the first 10 races (11th race was Austria where Max and Lando collided battling for the lead) Max won 7, and had a mechanical DNF from pole in Australia. If his car allows him to win 70% of the time the odds of winning 7 in a row is 8.2%, if his car allows him to win (on average) 80% of the time the odds of winning 7 in a row is 21%.

It's a low probability (or even a non-existent probability) event if the RB21 didn't take a (big) step forward on all tracks. If it did take a step forward then history shows us that Max has a "puncher's chance" at running the table and getting back into this WDC battle. So what are the odds the RB21 is now on par with the MCL39? That's the only question that matters, and we'll get a much better idea about the answer this weekend. There's a much better chance this entire conversation is rendered moot by Sunday.

Regarding this topic, if Max can beat McLaren duo to tile, saw this on media, sorry if was already posted:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G1xw4K3XAAE ... name=large

Still hard to believe this will happen. I really hope not to see another Interlagos 2007.

Exactly. Plus this looks a lot nicer than my spreadsheet. Oscar could even get another 2nd place finish in a GP if he gets 3rd in two of the three sprints (so in 7 GPs: 2x 2nd, 5x 3rd; in 3 sprints: 1x 2nd, 2x 3rd), and they would be tied at 454 but Max would win on countback. Oscar can finish every event on the podium and even get 2nd about a third of the time and still lose the WDC. Plus it's hard to get Lando to play the team game when he himself is close to one win away from taking the WDC lead as we get to the final races.

If McLaren were to finish 4-5, or 5-6 or something like that in Vegas it would give Max room to not have to win every race. But first thing first, Max has to win in Singapore (or take points off Oscar at the very least).

[chrisc90]

The charts above are the absolute best case for McLaren (or max) being able to finish 2/3 (McLaren drivers) whilst Max has to win. Finish P4 - 12 points, or P5 - 10 points and the tides turn quite a bit - as then your looking at a McLaren driver dropping an additional 5-8 points a race (compared to coming P2/3) which is quite a bit to drop.

So so many variables in it really - what McLaren must do is avoid another Baku weekend.

[Ben1980]

If Max wins every remaining race, while Mclaren fall off a cliff. Something mystical has happened.

[FittingMechanics]

Max can still win the championship if something extraordinary happens. It would probably require McLaren declining heavily as Max would need McLaren to get some worse results than just finish P2/P3.

Couple of DNFs could open it up as well, but I don't think we have anything to worry about just yet. Drivers should forget about fighting each other and work to maximize the points haul, as we've talked here before. Focusing on each other would allow Max to close the gap.

This is especially true if Max wins in Singapore with another bad showing from McLaren or Oscar.

[chrisc90]

Are none of you worried about the 2024 Miami upgrade that made a good leap ahead of a highly dominant Red Bulk at the time?

[FittingMechanics]

Are none of you worried about the 2024 Miami upgrade that made a good leap ahead of a highly dominant Red Bulk at the time?

Even if Red Bull makes such an update (which is doubtful) it would still not be enough. McLaren can lose this only if they fall off heavily and Ferrari and Mercedes start to finish ahead of them as well. Or major reliability/DNF problems.

If they keep their pace ahead of Mercedes and Ferrari then McLaren can easily win the WDC by finishing on the podium while Max would need to win pretty much everything.

I also doubt anyone is bringing an update this late in the championship.

[Farnborough]

The McL chassis performance (during both of the last two GP) appeared to show something of the "long tail" aftereffects of the wing stiffening shift brought to Barcelona.

All teams seemed to deny ANY significant change in both performance and technical movement, with general bravado across the paddock being the norm.

These high speed circuit (particularly in comparison to last year Baku) effectively showing just where such a compromise lands. The narrowed choice of effective wing level being absolutely decisive at such places.

The concern from both drivers about front end feel, added to that effect, brought the car into a distinctly narrowed band of performance. The conditions of track surface during Q3 an especially acute scenario to leverage this in negative characteristics.

All drivers makes mistakes sometimes, learning from that is one of the most valuable assets a driver can "bank" it's not going to be perfect all of the time.

Lando's lap in Q3, observed as failure on here, was superb to watch though. A driver up for a world championship shot should be able to really hustle like that without lobbing it into the wall. Not quite the result he wanted, but certainly a memorable approach in my view. An F1 car, bullied, tweaked and forced between such unyielding barriers IS one of the delights for us spectators.
I don't think enough credit is given on here of just how difficult it must be to sit at the sharp end of a F1 car in greasy conditions , running slicks, in reality is. That was a very fine effort.

That, running in difficult conditions while squeezing everything to its limits, is one attribute of many world's champions, putting it on the line no matter what the outcome.
Verstappen has had more of these events, plain and simple. Its something that both Lando and Oscar need more of to build that broader spare of driver capacity. I enjoyed Lando's Q performance irrespective of the outcome.

This, next race, is really going to show us something in regard to absolutely chassis performance and understanding by both McL & RB teams in relation to each other. And one reason many watch F1, that really intense battle alsomaking the ultimate winner hold a result vindicated by such a performance of their opposition.

Hopefully, an exciting weekend is just coming up.

[Darth-Piekus]

I saw on the Red Bull channel Lauren Mekies saying that the car is now fast enough not to repeat a Budapest result. As the game is definitely not over yet do you still think Mclaren has the upper hand in overall car speed or will we need a last minute upgrade? Does Philip M have any info about it? I know you said that Mclaren should be having the upper hand still but I have my worries this might not be the case anymore.

[CjC]

If we look at it objectively.
Yes Max was very fast in Monza, quick enough to win the race- however he did start to suffer from tyre wear more than the Mclarens did on a low deg circuit.

In Baku, he made the most of the track conditions to get pole, he probably would have taken pole during a fully dry session too, however in the race he wasn’t really challenged. If it was a ‘normal’ weekend it would have been a 3 horse race.

Mclaren and Red Bull have a quick race car

[mwillems]

We are yet to see the consequences of Red Bull running lower top the ground. Will it retain its previous characteristics? Which tracks will suit it best?

There are tradeoffs to being even lower, such as the stiffness that impacts Mclaren over kerbs.

So I think the relative differences between the cars are unknown.

I do think that the past 2 tracks were examples of tracks the Mclaren doesnt enjoy and we dont yet know how the cars will stack up. How each will deal with the upcoming hot tracks, kerbs, bumps or corner profiles.

I previously highlighted Singapore and COTA as they will offer tests of both cars due to heat and general bumpiness as well as circuit configuration.

If the RB comes out on top at these races then we have a problem.

But Oscar finishing ahead at even one will begin to suffocate Max' perceived title challenge.

[Badger]

It will be interesting to see how Oscar performs this weekend. Both in terms of his last outing and also because this hasn’t been a strong track for him in the past. In 2023 he was eliminated in Q1 on pace (Lando P4), and in 2024 he underperformed in Q3. This feels like a track where Lando needs to capitalise and gain in the WDC.

[Macklaren]

Alex Dunne released? Surely this means he's getting a drive somewhere? (Alpine?) Shame for McLaren to lose drivers as good as Gabi and Alex. Though this is also a good sign that they don't expect to lose Lando or Oscar any time soon

[CjC]

Alex Dunne released? Surely this means he's getting a drive somewhere? (Alpine?) Shame for McLaren to lose drivers as good as Gabi and Alex. Though this is also a good sign that they don't expect to lose Lando or Oscar any time soon

I’m disappointed but not surprised. I was only thinking a few races back that the progression for Alex at McLaren looks highly unlikely given the current and youthful driver line up they already have.

I wish him all the best.

[Badger]

Alex Dunne released? Surely this means he's getting a drive somewhere? (Alpine?) Shame for McLaren to lose drivers as good as Gabi and Alex. Though this is also a good sign that they don't expect to lose Lando or Oscar any time soon

Racing Bulls.

[Darth-Piekus]

Singapore will have temperature more than 31 Celcius. That means more than 41 on the track. Combine it with the fact that it should be a track that should on paper be perfect for Mclaren I will settle for nothing more than an easy 1-2 (Piastri first-Norris second as Piastri has won my appreciation. No offences). Anything less will be a failure in my honest opinion.