Parr says only eight teams next year, three car teams.

[Itchy_digits]

In the last few years, there isn't one Pay Driver from any of the bottom 3 or 4 teams, who have gone on to make it big.

I certainly remember watching Ricciardo driving round in an HRT! Maybe not a pay driver in the sense of Chilton etc but I'm sure a year at the back helped Ricciardo really appreciate where he is now. Bianchi is another driver who I can see benefitting from his time with a team at the back.

As for the number of cars per team. I just don't see why they need to go and change another element of F1. Not saying it couldn't work but why? I just see it as another change that seems to have pressure to go ahead too quickly. It just needs a lot more discussion, like the radio ban. Wait another year!

[FW17]

3 car teams will not work. What is the incentive for Lotus Williams and Force India to run 3 cars next year? There will be about 90 million in price money (considering the 11th team makes 10 million, 10th 35 million and the 9th about 45 million) majority of which will be split by Ferrari and the top 3. That would not cover the cost of running another car when the engine and transmission alone is going to cost the better part of 15 to 20 million.

Problems of F1 cannot be solved by running 3 cars. F1 problems are;

1) not enough money from sponsors to cover cost of operation

2) too high a cost for operation due to restricted regulation

3) unequal distribution of the price money

4) 50% of price money siphoned out of the sport

5) Bernie's resolve to keep the manufacturers out

[SectorOne]

3 car teams will not work. What is the incentive for Lotus Williams and Force India to run 3 cars next year?

Regulation? From what i´ve gathered it´s already in the rules if some teams can´t make it to the grid next year everyone else will have to field three cars.

[Andres125sx]

3 car teams will not work. What is the incentive for Lotus Williams and Force India to run 3 cars next year? There will be about 90 million in price money (considering the 11th team makes 10 million, 10th 35 million and the 9th about 45 million) majority of which will be split by Ferrari and the top 3. That would not cover the cost of running another car when the engine and transmission alone is going to cost the better part of 15 to 20 million.

Problems of F1 cannot be solved by running 3 cars. F1 problems are;

1) not enough money from sponsors to cover cost of operation

2) too high a cost for operation due to restricted regulation

3) unequal distribution of the price money

4) 50% of price money siphoned out of the sport

5) Bernie's resolve to keep the manufacturers out

Money money money, that´s the only problem in the end. If F1 would be more competitive, and TV audiences would stop falling down, all those problems will dissapear

If 3 cars per team add some competitiveness to the championship it may be a solution. Now if any driver of the dominant team underperforms, then the championship is finished as everybody knows who will be the champion with many races to go. Zero competitiveness, see 2011 or 2013. With 3 cars per team even if a driver of the dominant team underperforms there still are two more drivers who will continue fighting for the WDC. More competitiveness, better audience numbers, more money.

Actually I think this is what they will do, as it is exactly what FIA usually do. Instead of solving the root of the problem (lack of competitiveness between teams) use a patch for it (3 cars per team). We´ve seen it many times before, for example with the lack of overtakings, instead of solving the root of the problem (aero) they used a patch (DRS)

[gridwalker]

I am totally out of my depth here, but would there be any way to statistically model how one of the previous championships MAY have worked out with 3 car teams? It would be a lot of work, but maybe someone could suggest a methodology?

[xpensive]

I'm certain that MrE and the top teams are trying to figure out how to make the three-car teams work. My guess is that the the third car will be outsourced to another team, the way McLaren did in the 1974, with Marlboro Team Texaco and Yardley Team McLaren.

[Moxie]

I am totally out of my depth here, but would there be any way to statistically model how one of the previous championships MAY have worked out with 3 car teams? It would be a lot of work, but maybe someone could suggest a methodology?

The beginnings of such work can be found here.

Here are links directly to the charts.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

Here you go. I have included charts for the average DNF% for the top five teams for 1974-1997 and 1974-1998. This is where the linear regression trend line changes from positive to negative.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

Average of Top Five Teams DNF % split 1974-1993 and 1994-2013

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

Here is the chart for Team Win% for the top three teams, showing the standard deviations.
Team #1 Blue had a SD of 17
Team #2 Magenta had a SD of 13
Team #3 Green had a SD of 10

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzuAgI ... sp=sharing

As I continue my work I will be posting more studies I will post them in the "Statistical Analysis of F1 Competition" thread.

These charts show that the dominance of the WCC winning team has increased dramatically over the past 40 years. So much so, that if the trend continues, in 2015 or 2016 the possibility of the second place team winning a single race will fall outside 1 standard deviation.

The same is true regarding the dominance the WCC winning teams dominance over podium positions.

In regards to the top podium position of any given race, the last chart posted shows that if the current trend continues, by 2015, it will be outside the norm one standard deviation that any team other than the WCC team wins a single race. (In a two car scenario).

By throwing a third car into the mix, and Bernie is essentially turning F1 into a spec series, as far as the podium positions are concerned. Four teams will build cars to F1 regulations, but with slightly different specs as the regulations allow, then the odds are that one team will lock out the the top two podium positions. That same team will also dominate third position, while the other teams will be damned lucky to take a third place at any given race.

If you love the WDC competition this may be great, but for those who follow the WCC, this is going from dismal to a complete disaster. This is especially true since the teams win prize money according WCC results.

[FW17]

I'm certain that MrE and the top teams are trying to figure out how to make the three-car teams work. My guess is that the the third car will be outsourced to another team, the way McLaren did in the 1974, with Marlboro Team Texaco and Yardley Team McLaren.

That is a customer team model which is not going to work

[xpensive]

I'm certain that MrE and the top teams are trying to figure out how to make the three-car teams work. My guess is that the the third car will be outsourced to another team, the way McLaren did in the 1974, with Marlboro Team Texaco and Yardley Team McLaren.

That is a customer team model which is not going to work

And this we know how?

[Moxie]

In regards to the top podium position of any given race, the last chart posted shows that if the current trend continues, by 2015, it will be outside the norm one standard deviation that any team other than the WCC team wins a single race. (In a two car scenario).

This statement was made in error. Please forgive my misinterpretation.

[Jolle]

It would be nice if the (in 2015-2016) 4 works teams (Ferrari, RedBull-Renault, Mercedes and Mclaren-Honda) would all have a junior team like RedBull has now, so there is a clear focus on bringing in real riding talent into the sport. There would be three types of teams: Works teams (4), Junior teams (4) and a few private teams, like Williams and Lotus.
it could be like this:
Mercedes - Sauber Mercedes
RedBull - Toro Rosso
Ferrari - Haas F1 Ferrari
Mclaren - Force India Honda

and as private teams,
Williams, Lotus and if they make it, "the new ones"

this way there would be at least 20 well funded cars on track.

[bauc]

Mclaren says it needs at least 6 months notice to prepare for 3rd car - meaning its already too late

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/116021

[Richard]

Comments in red ...

Problems of F1 cannot be solved by running 3 cars. F1 problems are;

1) not enough money from sponsors to cover cost of operation - Actually there's loads of money in F1.

2) too high a cost for operation due to restricted regulation - The teams will always spend as much money as they can. The regs simply say where they can spend it.

3) unequal distribution of the price money - Yes

4) 50% of price money siphoned out of the sport - See item 1.

5) Bernie's resolve to keep the manufacturers out - Because they don't like item 4.

It all comes down to how much money can end up in Bernie's control, the sport is secondary when it comes to talk of 3 teams.

[dans79]

Richard has it right as far as I'm concerned, the last 3 point are the problem, not the first 2.

[FW17]

Comments in red ...

Problems of F1 cannot be solved by running 3 cars. F1 problems are;

1) not enough money from sponsors to cover cost of operation - Actually there's loads of money in F1.

2) too high a cost for operation due to restricted regulation - The teams will always spend as much money as they can. The regs simply say where they can spend it.

3) unequal distribution of the price money - Yes

4) 50% of price money siphoned out of the sport - See item 1.

5) Bernie's resolve to keep the manufacturers out - Because they don't like item 4.

It all comes down to how much money can end up in Bernie's control, the sport is secondary when it comes to talk of 3 teams.

F1 teams up and down the order has not been able to replace tobacco sponsorship. If there was enough money from sponsors then why do we see more than half the grid with blank sidepods and no title sponsorship?