2017 Championship Permutations

[NathanOlder]

@Phil,

I think nearly every scenario you come up with that hinders Hamilton (which can all be very possible) can all be flipped and turned on to Vettel.


"Imagine the following:
Towards the end of the race, Hamilton is leading ahead of a RedBull, then followed by Kimi, then Bottas and Vettel.

What is Ferrari supposed to do?"

I love your predictions and workings out, Its fascinating to read so I'm not just trying to disagree with you for the sake of it

[TAG]

Imagine the following:
Towards the end of the race, Vettel is leading ahead of a RedBull, then followed by Bottas, then Kimi and Hamilton.

What is Mercedes supposed to do?

They might intervene if they are in a position to do so, but i find it rather doubtful they will go too far to help Hamilton.

Come on Phil, I know a little part of you is playing devil's advocate here but how is that scenario not just as applicable to Ferrari as is would be to Mercedes? Just word salad those names around and you can come up with 100 different scenarios. The more likely of scenarios has already transpired, Hamilton having to give a position back to Bottas, that won't happen again.

Whereas Ferrari bringing Kimi in on a suspect pitstop or simply giving Vettel the undercut should his teammate be in front is commonplace. Additionally not allowing Kimi to challenge Vettel, also a common place practice. I suspect we'll see Mercedes doing the same if and when they have to. No shame in that, especially since they've (Toto) chosen to take the high road so far.

As for how Vettel could end up being behind his team mate:

- a bad start
- a technical issue with the car
- Kimi is more competitive on the day

Goes both ways, and Vettel has suffered most from bad starts this year, of any of the leaders.

There is no guarantee this could not happen. Bottas is still in the hunt for thr championship, even if it would take a miracle. This puts Mercedes in a difficult position and as image and PR conscious as they are, i would not bet on them to do everything possible to make sure Hamilton finishes as the best Mercedes.

The Mercedes could still struggle with set up. It still is very feasable this could lead to a scenario where Bottas, being different on the tires, could be quicker. Do not take Hamilton beating Bottas for granted. A lot can happen between the Saturday and the last lap of a grand prix...

This is just a lot of conjecture, and yeah it could happen but yeah it could happen to Ferrari as well. I'd even counter than Ferrari are in a deeper hole on the hardware front. They've got an untested PU to contend with that will be forced to run .9 liter per 100k. They've got Turbos that are stretched thin.

For the remaining circuits, I haven't seen anything that screams to me that one shouldn't take Hamilton beating Bottas for granted. Mercedes has worked a lot since Hungary's test to address the tire issues and since then we've not only seen Hamilton be better from a management standpoint but also be clear ahead of Bottas by a half second in qualifying. Hamilton *is* in the hunt, I double he'll have many if any "off" weekends.

There's a lot of ifs to the permutations but each weekend that goes by the list of ifs will get longer for Vettel and shorter for Hamilton. This weekend is pivotal for Mercedes if Mercedes is to begin framing any kind of finality to the season.

I think only DNFs (plural) can swing things in the other direction.

[Phil]

You are right, I am playing devils advocate to a certain degree.

I do have to say though that I find it highly doubtful that Mercedes will intervene to the degree you think they will. They are not Ferrari. Mercedes are very image conscious and I do believe they will not jeopardise one driver for the other, unless absolutely necessary. This however will not happen, not with Hamilton leading the WDC "comfortably" with 28 points.

For Ferrari, things are simple. Kimi is happy to be (ab)used and drive his race with the sole purpose of helping Vettel become world champion. They've already done it and they will again, especially now that Kimi is out of contention. I don't believe we will see Mercedes do this, not unless absolutely necessary. And it will also depend on the situation, for example, it will be crucial for Hamilton to be directly behind Bottas to receive any help. If that isn't the case, the team would be quite limited in what they do. It will also depend on what the net benefit will be. If a position swap will only gain 2 or 3 points, the team will probably think closely about the benefits and drawbacks.

Again: Mercedes are not Ferrari. Bottas isn't that far off and I believe this will make it difficult for Mercedes to fully back Hamilton. Yes, they will be praying that they will not have to intervene and that Hamilton will perform at his very best to not put the team in any awkward position where team-orders may be beneficial.

Anyway, Malaysia is upon us. Lets see how this race pans out and who knows, maybe some of you will realise that still much can happen with 6 races to go. I'm very much with Autosport in that Vettel still has a sufficient chance to win this years WDC under the assumption that Ferrari will be very competitive on at least 4 of the upcoming tracks.

Look at it from another perspective: it takes one single race where Hamilton finishes 5th and Vettel wins it to narrow the gap from 28 to 13 points. Out of the question you say? It just takes one track where both Ferrari and RedBull are quicker with both cars. This isn't 2014-2016 where it was always gonna be either Rosberg or Hamilton and a 7 point swing. The problem with battling 4 other cars is that the point loss when not performing will be higher. And yes, this also applies to Vettel too.

[NathanOlder]

And we all know what Vettel is like battling other cars.

Id love to see a solid battle between the 2 for a full race distance

[Cannonballer]

I will happily give anyone 3-1 odds on Vettel winning the championship. Takers?

[NathanOlder]

Phil will bite your hand of at thise odds. He has Vettel as favorite

[Phil]

I never said that... I just said that the significance of a 28 points lead depends highly on how strong the 3 teams (RB, Mercedes and Ferrari) will be relative to one another in the 6 remaining races. If we had 6 races like Monaco, Hungary and Singapore, then quite evidently, a 28 points lead for Mercedes would be different than if we had 6 Monza tracks coming up.

The problem is, we don't quite know who will suit which track due to many unknowns (from engine to allocated parts to tire wear and characteristics of the car, the updates to come and the layout of the track as well as unforeseen circumstances). If we assume Mercedes will be strong contenders on most tracks, then yes, it will likely take a miracle for Vettel to win. If Mercedes finds itself in trouble on N tracks, the odds change. The higher the number N, the more they change. Evidently, some believe that even if Vettel wins 4 races and Hamilton the other 2, it's done and dusted (in Hamilton's favor), but that depends highly on how each perform when not winning.

[notsofast]

Mercedes are very image conscious
...
This isn't 2014-2016 where it was always gonna be either Rosberg or Hamilton

And that's the difference.

It was good for Mercedes' image to allow Rosberg to win in 2016.
It will not be good for Mercedes' image if they allow Vettel to win in 2017.

[TAG]

Mercedes won't go as far as cutting the seal on Massa's transmission to allow Alonso to start on the better side of the grid like they did a few years ago. But a bird in hand is worth two in the bush, and like I said, they won't ask Hamilton to give a position back. It's not like Hamilton needs much either, he's done fine without it.

[Restomaniac]

Mercedes won't go as far as cutting the seal on Massa's transmission to allow Alonso to start on the better side of the grid like they did a few years ago. But a bird in hand is worth two in the bush, and like I said, they won't ask Hamilton to give a position back. It's not like Hamilton needs much either, he's done fine without it.

My memory isn't what it once was. Was that in the same season that Massa was ordered to move over for Alonso?

[TAG]

Mercedes won't go as far as cutting the seal on Massa's transmission to allow Alonso to start on the better side of the grid like they did a few years ago. But a bird in hand is worth two in the bush, and like I said, they won't ask Hamilton to give a position back. It's not like Hamilton needs much either, he's done fine without it.

My memory isn't what it once was. Was that in the same season that Massa was ordered to move over for Alonso?

as if my memory is any better. I think it was the same season Rob Smedly "encouraged" Massa so ruin Hamilton's race.

[Restomaniac]

Mercedes won't go as far as cutting the seal on Massa's transmission to allow Alonso to start on the better side of the grid like they did a few years ago. But a bird in hand is worth two in the bush, and like I said, they won't ask Hamilton to give a position back. It's not like Hamilton needs much either, he's done fine without it.

My memory isn't what it once was. Was that in the same season that Massa was ordered to move over for Alonso?

as if my memory is any better. I think it was the same season Rob Smedly "encouraged" Massa so ruin Hamilton's race.

Possibly as it was Smedly who asked not so cryptically for Masss to get out of Alonso's way in my above comment.

After a bit of a dig around the infamous 'Fernando is faster than you' was in 2010.
The clip where he was saying 'good lad keep doing that, keep him behind you' was in 2011. I can't find and mention of seal cutting though to find out when it was.

[TAG]

After a bit of a dig around the infamous 'Fernando is faster than you' was in 2010.
The clip where he was saying 'good lad keep doing that, keep him behind you' was in 2011. I can't find and mention of seal cutting though to find out when it was.

Well what do you know, it was Singapore.

The Singapore Grand Prix race edit video from FOM reveals some interesting comments at Ferrari.

It appears that before the collision between Lewis Hamilton and Felipe Massa, Rob Smedley was goading his driver to “hold Hamilton as much as we can. Destroy his race as much as we can.”

Here's James Allen on the transmission thing.

After re-reading these, I have to apologize to to Phil, I agree. Mercedes would never stoop so low.

[Shrieker]

There aren't tracks like Monaco, Hungary, or Singapore anymore. Hamilton may very well win all the remaining races, apart from an engine penalty. Mercedes had shown great form in Silverstone, Monza and Spa, and the remaining tracks are all similar. Only in Spa could Ferrari challenge Mercedes.

[Restomaniac]

After a bit of a dig around the infamous 'Fernando is faster than you' was in 2010.
The clip where he was saying 'good lad keep doing that, keep him behind you' was in 2011. I can't find and mention of seal cutting though to find out when it was.

Well what do you know, it was Singapore.

The Singapore Grand Prix race edit video from FOM reveals some interesting comments at Ferrari.

It appears that before the collision between Lewis Hamilton and Felipe Massa, Rob Smedley was goading his driver to “hold Hamilton as much as we can. Destroy his race as much as we can.”

Here's James Allen on the transmission thing.

After re-reading these, I have to apologize to to Phil, I agree. Mercedes would never stoop so low.

You want to know the worst of it? Those 3 incidents are in 3 separate seasons.
'Get out of the way' in 2010, winding a driver up to crash in 2011 and deliberately getting your own driver a penalty in 2012.
And some on here argue that Ferrari don't have number 1/number 2 drivers. As you say Mercedes would never be THAT scummy.