strad wrote: ↑06 Jul 2018, 20:01
henry;
Near future? I'd call that 10 years and I don't see AVs making any massive inroads in 10 years. Strides? Yes, and maybe more so in Europe or England but less in the U.S..
As has been pointed out, charge times and range reliability rightly or wrongly play a big part along with cost.
IF you could recharge on a 1200 mile trip as quickly as you can fill up your tank that would eliminate much of the hesitation. But here in the United States millions of people a day drive from say Seattle to Phoenix straight through. From L.A. to New Orleans with a couple of driver changes. That sort of thing.
I do believe those of you younger than me will see the time, but not until they address those problems. Certainly not in my short lifetime left.
I didn’t say anything about timescales but since you ask.
Very limited commercial autonomous ride hail services are scheduled for this year, Waymo in Phoenix and Baidu in China, and other smaller endeavours. Both major deployments are Technology companies. The expertise that needs to be evaluated and developed right now is the measurement and control, sensors, compute power and algorithms and their implementation.
This is not where the big automakers have expertise. They will partner or buy to obtain that. Their expertise is building vehicles in large numbers at a profit. As Tesla are finding that’s not as easy as it looks. The big automakers are targeting 2020-2022 for volume production of autonomous cars. It seems likely that by the time 10 years have passed (2028) volume autonomous ride hailing will have been in place for a minimum of 5 years. There will be restrictions, weather, street layout, population density and wealth will all need to be suitable. But their operating scope will extend over that time.
For the long distance traveller the driver assist features available in higher end vehicles today will continue to develop, they shouldn’t be called autonomous, but they will, and will definitely ease the strain involved in long distance journeys. (I tried them over Christmas last year and they are a key feature I would seek when I replace my current car) Higher end vehicles will cross over and provide last mile in areas where ride-hailing is enabled.
You’re right to mention EV, although not in the area of long distance. EV would seem to be a good match for ride hailing in urban environments. Low manufacturing and maintenance costs, low brake wear, possibility to reduce tyre wear by torque vectoring, and many fewer parts to fail. Range need be only 150-200 miles or so with a couple of scheduled recharging events to allow 20 hour/day deployment. Expect to see dual purpose vehicles shifting between people and goods carrying configurations.
Fortune favours the prepared; she has no favourites and takes no sides.
Truth is confirmed by inspection and delay; falsehood by haste and uncertainty : Tacitus
