You need to PM the lotto numbers… Your premonition powers seem strong
Indeed, I should've qualified it as an opinion because it is just that.. but you'll forgive me for my occasional moments of daring to assert an opinion with confidence for the fun of itSmallSoldier wrote: ↑15 Feb 2022, 21:15You need to PM the lotto numbers… Your premonition powers seem strong
Let’s wait and see how they fair… At this point is anyone’s guess.
And that’s why the smiley faceAeroDynamic wrote: ↑15 Feb 2022, 21:21Indeed, I should've qualified it as an opinion because it is just that.. but you'll forgive me for my occasional moments of daring to assert an opinion with confidence for the fun of itSmallSoldier wrote: ↑15 Feb 2022, 21:15You need to PM the lotto numbers… Your premonition powers seem strong
Let’s wait and see how they fair… At this point is anyone’s guess.
But to elaborate on it.. I just think the RBR situation doesn't represent what Alex is capable of in other cars. He has been competitive with George and Max in their past.
Latifi? From what I'm aware of, he isn't of this pedigree.
The situation: New cars, completely different cars. If Latifi is not of the better calibre of drivers.. how well and quickly can he adapt to a completely different car? and what about Alex's experience in driving the unstable RB16?
I just think with these new cars, Alex will have more talent to adapt and figure it out better than Latifi. on top of the fact that I think he's genuinely a faster and more capable driver than Latifi has ever proven. I think these cars will compound it before long rather than mitigate it for Latifi.
Yes these variables you are highlighting are valid and open possibilities. But if we want to have fun taking a position of what we think, we have to entertain an opinion based on probabilities. These probabilities lean in Alex's favour for me, based on the best of my limited knowledge (of course) about them as drivers. But if your life depended on it and you needed to bet money on one of these beating the other, who would you place your money on?SmallSoldier wrote: ↑15 Feb 2022, 21:31And that’s why the smiley faceAeroDynamic wrote: ↑15 Feb 2022, 21:21Indeed, I should've qualified it as an opinion because it is just that.. but you'll forgive me for my occasional moments of daring to assert an opinion with confidence for the fun of itSmallSoldier wrote: ↑15 Feb 2022, 21:15
You need to PM the lotto numbers… Your premonition powers seem strong
Let’s wait and see how they fair… At this point is anyone’s guess.
But to elaborate on it.. I just think the RBR situation doesn't represent what Alex is capable of in other cars. He has been competitive with George and Max in their past.
Latifi? From what I'm aware of, he isn't of this pedigree.
The situation: New cars, completely different cars. If Latifi is not of the better calibre of drivers.. how well and quickly can he adapt to a completely different car? and what about Alex's experience in driving the unstable RB16?
I just think with these new cars, Alex will have more talent to adapt and figure it out better than Latifi. on top of the fact that I think he's genuinely a faster and more capable driver than Latifi has ever proven. I think these cars will compound it before long rather than mitigate it for Latifi.
I guess that if you start your argument with “Latifi is not of the better calibre of drivers” then you can imply that “how well and quickly can he adapt to a different car”… I won’t go into the better calibre of drivers part of the argument, because it will be extremely subjective, but even if he wouldn’t be in that list as you first asume, that would have nothing to do with his ability to adapt… What if he actually adapts faster than the “better calibre of drivers”?… We have a very strong example in Daniel Ricciardo, who even though may be able to be a part of your list of better drivers, he struggled a lot to adapt to a different car in the MCL35M last season.
Alex experience in driving the “unstable” RB16… I don’t think it was an “unstable” car, that much was showed by Max all season… If anything, what that showed was that he had some trouble adjusting to a different car.
I believe it’s unfair to talk about “talent”… All of this guys are talented and that’s very hard to measure… I can accept your proposition and opinion that Alex is faster than Nicolas, but that can’t be validated until they are on track… It’s simply impossible to compare 2 drivers that weren’t in the same team / car.
I am looking forward to see what they can do and won’t be surprised if Latiffi ends up been the one edging Alex this season, he has more time with the team, he raced last season (while Alex was doing simulator work) and he drove a very difficult car(s), which in itself teaches you a thing or two and helps you develop… It will be a fun pairing.
I would entertain an opinion based on “probabilities”, absolutely! What are those probabilities though? You haven’t expressed a single one… Which “probabilities” lean on Alex’s favor?… What knowledge do you have about them as drivers? (I mean, beyond comparing their results in cars that were in opposite extremes of the field)… Unless you have data from their driving, it would just be a subjective appreciation.AeroDynamic wrote: ↑15 Feb 2022, 21:41Yes these variables you are highlighting are valid and open possibilities. But if we want to have fun taking a position of what we think, we have to entertain an opinion based on probabilities. These probabilities lean in Alex's favour for me, based on the best of my limited knowledge (of course) about them as drivers. But if your life depended on it and you needed to bet money on one of these beating the other, who would you place your money on?
I'm surprised you don't share the opinion on the RB16 being unstable, because the RBR team themselves made it clear their car had a fundamental problem in its design which took them at least the better part of a whole season to understand. with CH "If we knew what we know now.." The RB16 was unpredictable at the rear and was the reason Max was spinning, or are you familiar with other reasons?
naturally all the F1 drivers are talented. We acknowledge that. But what utility does that point serve when trying to engage opinions on the topic about comparing their degree of talent between them? relative to each other.. if we can't discern and discuss them on a spectrum of talent that they all sit on.
to take your point further, the data to compare two drivers in the same car is not a reliable measure of concluding who is better and faster than the other. We would have to have the same drivers in a set of cars, a range of input styles, to see who is better in most cars, and arguably, who created the bigger gap to the other when they were faster? we can never judge these with an exact scientifically proven study but we can form opinions based on probabilities and interpretation of each little study setting we see.
Well, as you know and as I had expressed in the edited version of my other post, it is correct that we don't have probabilities as you quantified it, or data in a setting where they were comparable with limited variables to interfere with interpretation of studying them (in the same car)SmallSoldier wrote: ↑15 Feb 2022, 21:58I would entertain an opinion based on “probabilities”, absolutely! What are those probabilities though? You haven’t expressed a single one… Which “probabilities” lean on Alex’s favor?… What knowledge do you have about them as drivers? (I mean, beyond comparing their results in cars that were in opposite extremes of the field)… Unless you have data from their driving, it would just be a subjective appreciation.AeroDynamic wrote: ↑15 Feb 2022, 21:41Yes these variables you are highlighting are valid and open possibilities. But if we want to have fun taking a position of what we think, we have to entertain an opinion based on probabilities. These probabilities lean in Alex's favour for me, based on the best of my limited knowledge (of course) about them as drivers. But if your life depended on it and you needed to bet money on one of these beating the other, who would you place your money on?
I'm surprised you don't share the opinion on the RB16 being unstable, because the RBR team themselves made it clear their car had a fundamental problem in its design which took them at least the better part of a whole season to understand. with CH "If we knew what we know now.." The RB16 was unpredictable at the rear and was the reason Max was spinning, or are you familiar with other reasons?
naturally all the F1 drivers are talented. We acknowledge that. But what utility does that point serve when trying to engage opinions on the topic about comparing their degree of talent between them? relative to each other.. if we can't discern and discuss them on a spectrum of talent that they all sit on.
If you say: I think that Alex is faster than Nicholas, that’s perfectly fine… It’s an opinion, it’s subjective and there is nothing wrong with it… But let’s not try to validate it by creating probabilities for which there is absolute no data behind (or at least, measurable and comparable data)
I have to admit that I’ve always been someone that disagrees with any kind of comparison between drivers that haven’t raced on the same team / same car, simply because all of those comparisons are flawed from the beginning… Unluckily those comparisons are usually based on “A driver beat B, B driver beat C, therefore A driver is better than C”… But we can’t really use that type of logic since in addition to the fact that most often those happen in different cars, there is a plethora of factors that can have an effect on the outcome of a given season.
The only thing we know is that Alex was behind Max in Red Bull, Nicholas was behind George in Williams… Can we gauge if Max is faster than George? We can’t, so the conclusions are flawed from that point on.
I’ll give you an example, I believe that Norris is faster than George… Nevertheless George beat Norris while in F2, but after watching that whole season from beginning to end, there were a couple of drives from Norris that were pretty impressive in my book (the French F2 race for example)… Alex was actually fighting with both Norris and George during that season and finished third behind those 2, winning several races that season… But he didn’t gave me the impression of been as fast as the other 2.
At the end, it’s just opinions… Subjective ones and we can’t mask that…
On your question on who may come up on top, I honestly believe that it will be really close (way closer than both had been to their previous team mates)… I wouldn’t bet my life on either of them to be honest, since I don’t think one is particularly superior to the other one… But we will find out
It’s all good banter while we wait for the season to start and with not a lot to discuss just yetAeroDynamic wrote: ↑15 Feb 2022, 22:19
Well, as you know and as I had expressed in the edited version of my other post, it is correct that we don't have probabilities as you quantified it, or data in a setting where they were comparable with limited variables to interfere with interpretation of studying them (in the same car)
But working with the best we have –shall we call them impressions?– The impression from Alex is stronger in F3/F2 than Nicholas' was. When other drivers like George publicly rate Alex well in a way that doesn't strike me as lip service or just being nice.. I put this together and have a stronger impression of ability in Alex. Nicholas for me, has struggled to prove he really belongs in F1 based on the very best being in the cars or not. He hasn't delivered impressions as good as other drivers in any category for me.
Of course, I would like to be able to cite more reliable and robust data and comparisons like them driving the same car before this season, but as you well know, we just aren't afforded that data but the impression from Alex is stronger. We will see, and it could well be that the variable of Nicholas adapting to the new car better than Alex occurs, it could mean he's faster, or the cars driving input needs and style have better chemistry with Nicholas' inputs, driving techniques and style etc.
im excited to see what we will get. unfortunately the same argument could be made for Nicholas against Alex if Alex does dominate him, but for me it would more likely be a genuine representation that Alex is just better than it being the other variables. But yeah, without a fully fledged scientific level study on drivers, its a mystery
let's revisit this when we find out what happens mid way through the season or near then!
Well, just to clarify what you are specifically picking out, I'm not saying it is a measure of who's faster or better, but I take note if drivers leave good impressions of other drivers. Indeed, some drivers make claims with different intentions behind why they are saying it, it doesn't mean when a driver expresses a good impression of another driver, that it is can't be genuine other times either. This is why I took the moment to express that I think George was saying it genuinely, in my opinion. Like George giving Max a good fight in lower categories and Max commenting his opinion that George's level is good enough to fight Hamilton competitively, I think he means it genuinely also. Its not that im singling this out as an evidence, but that it doesn't hurt the rest of the picture from how Nicholas and Albon have fared in lower categories and in F1.SmallSoldier wrote: ↑15 Feb 2022, 23:10It’s all good banter while we wait for the season to start and with not a lot to discuss just yetAeroDynamic wrote: ↑15 Feb 2022, 22:19
Well, as you know and as I had expressed in the edited version of my other post, it is correct that we don't have probabilities as you quantified it, or data in a setting where they were comparable with limited variables to interfere with interpretation of studying them (in the same car)
But working with the best we have –shall we call them impressions?– The impression from Alex is stronger in F3/F2 than Nicholas' was. When other drivers like George publicly rate Alex well in a way that doesn't strike me as lip service or just being nice.. I put this together and have a stronger impression of ability in Alex. Nicholas for me, has struggled to prove he really belongs in F1 based on the very best being in the cars or not. He hasn't delivered impressions as good as other drivers in any category for me.
Of course, I would like to be able to cite more reliable and robust data and comparisons like them driving the same car before this season, but as you well know, we just aren't afforded that data but the impression from Alex is stronger. We will see, and it could well be that the variable of Nicholas adapting to the new car better than Alex occurs, it could mean he's faster, or the cars driving input needs and style have better chemistry with Nicholas' inputs, driving techniques and style etc.
im excited to see what we will get. unfortunately the same argument could be made for Nicholas against Alex if Alex does dominate him, but for me it would more likely be a genuine representation that Alex is just better than it being the other variables. But yeah, without a fully fledged scientific level study on drivers, its a mystery
let's revisit this when we find out what happens mid way through the season or near then!
I just found the 2 bold parts worth commenting on:
1) I’m sorry, but the fact that George publicly rated Alex is in no way or fashion something that could help you derive that Alex is better than Nicholas… If George would have been asked who is faster / better Alex or Nicholas maybe and even that would be an stretch, since it wouldn’t be nothing else than George’s opinion. (For example of opinions, Alonso stated several times that Stoffel was the fastest team mate he ever had, those team mates included Hamilton, Button and Kimi among others… Do we take his opinion and conclude that Stoffel is faster than those 3? I don’t think so, right?
2) And that’s a problem with this whole conversation from the beginning… You have made up your mind, Alex is faster than Nicholas and you will create a narrative to suit it, whether it is talking about probabilities that don’t exist or taking the comment of one his friends (because Alex and George are good friends) as “proof” of your “opinion”, or as stated in that line that it doesn’t matter if Nicholas does show that he is faster than Alex on track, in the same team, with the same car… It will just be “other variables”, that’s a very biased opinion.
You think Alex is faster and that’s all that matters in the end… It’s your opinion and you are 100% entitled to it, let’s just not disguise it and try to pretend is objective.
I’ll leave it there!
Let’s pick up the probability discussion via PMAeroDynamic wrote: ↑15 Feb 2022, 23:55Well, just to clarify what you are specifically picking out, I'm not saying it is a measure of who's faster or better, but I take note if drivers leave good impressions of other drivers. Indeed, some drivers make claims with different intentions behind why they are saying it, it doesn't mean when a driver expresses a good impression of another driver, that it is can't be genuine other times either. This is why I took the moment to express that I think George was saying it genuinely, in my opinion. Like George giving Max a good fight in lower categories and Max commenting his opinion that George's level is good enough to fight Hamilton competitively, I think he means it genuinely also. Its not that im singling this out as an evidence, but that it doesn't hurt the rest of the picture from how Nicholas and Albon have fared in lower categories and in F1.SmallSoldier wrote: ↑15 Feb 2022, 23:10It’s all good banter while we wait for the season to start and with not a lot to discuss just yetAeroDynamic wrote: ↑15 Feb 2022, 22:19
Well, as you know and as I had expressed in the edited version of my other post, it is correct that we don't have probabilities as you quantified it, or data in a setting where they were comparable with limited variables to interfere with interpretation of studying them (in the same car)
But working with the best we have –shall we call them impressions?– The impression from Alex is stronger in F3/F2 than Nicholas' was. When other drivers like George publicly rate Alex well in a way that doesn't strike me as lip service or just being nice.. I put this together and have a stronger impression of ability in Alex. Nicholas for me, has struggled to prove he really belongs in F1 based on the very best being in the cars or not. He hasn't delivered impressions as good as other drivers in any category for me.
Of course, I would like to be able to cite more reliable and robust data and comparisons like them driving the same car before this season, but as you well know, we just aren't afforded that data but the impression from Alex is stronger. We will see, and it could well be that the variable of Nicholas adapting to the new car better than Alex occurs, it could mean he's faster, or the cars driving input needs and style have better chemistry with Nicholas' inputs, driving techniques and style etc.
im excited to see what we will get. unfortunately the same argument could be made for Nicholas against Alex if Alex does dominate him, but for me it would more likely be a genuine representation that Alex is just better than it being the other variables. But yeah, without a fully fledged scientific level study on drivers, its a mystery
let's revisit this when we find out what happens mid way through the season or near then!
I just found the 2 bold parts worth commenting on:
1) I’m sorry, but the fact that George publicly rated Alex is in no way or fashion something that could help you derive that Alex is better than Nicholas… If George would have been asked who is faster / better Alex or Nicholas maybe and even that would be an stretch, since it wouldn’t be nothing else than George’s opinion. (For example of opinions, Alonso stated several times that Stoffel was the fastest team mate he ever had, those team mates included Hamilton, Button and Kimi among others… Do we take his opinion and conclude that Stoffel is faster than those 3? I don’t think so, right?
2) And that’s a problem with this whole conversation from the beginning… You have made up your mind, Alex is faster than Nicholas and you will create a narrative to suit it, whether it is talking about probabilities that don’t exist or taking the comment of one his friends (because Alex and George are good friends) as “proof” of your “opinion”, or as stated in that line that it doesn’t matter if Nicholas does show that he is faster than Alex on track, in the same team, with the same car… It will just be “other variables”, that’s a very biased opinion.
You think Alex is faster and that’s all that matters in the end… It’s your opinion and you are 100% entitled to it, let’s just not disguise it and try to pretend is objective.
I’ll leave it there!
I just want to see Nicholas impress a lot more so I can develop a different opinion. He has those year as an opportunity to do it with Albon (and next year?)
as for 2) I don't think its a 'problem' as I've made it clear shortly after I stated my assertion that it is an opinion, and its part of what makes it interesting when we share our opinions on the unknowns. I'm not sure how you quantify probabilities but for me, how each driver is doing in their career is a statement of what they can do.
Differentiate probabilities? One driver has impressed more than the other in their careers. Does it mean its a fact that one is going to be faster than the other, of course not. Everyone had the probabilities down that Alonso would be faster than a rookie in 2007 but Hamilton defied expectations and probabilities.. or at least, what I quantify as probabilities.
The teams do study these drivers performances and I do think Albon being picked up by a top team and Nicholas being picked up more on virtue of the sponsor money he brings to a team that was starved of money, speaks volumes as well.
But I get that you have a specific criteria for what you would consider probabilities or otherwise, and you may refrain from asserting opinions behind that principle. That is fine.
Fully agree… Even though he was edged by George in almost every qualifying session (bar Brazil where he finally got one on Russell), he seems like a capable driver and in reality and he wasn’t that far off from George. I just with the best to both drivers, not a particular fan of either of them, but hope they both have good seasons!Big Tea wrote: ↑16 Feb 2022, 00:17From a pure personal 'gut feeling' I think Alex is the faster and better all round driver. But I also think Latifi is not a 'back half of the grid' driver either.
As with most drivers in F1, now or times passed, 95% of it is them happening to be in the right car at the right time.
Latifi did not look good against George in his first season but we have no idea how poorly off Williams were and how much priority went to Russell's car as the team needed to look as good as they could, even at the expense of one driver. The second half of last season it was not so clear cut between them. Although Russell always looked the better driver, the difference was shrinking as the year went on.
As was said when Alex was teammates with Max, the car could well be just what one driver wanted, and the other could not get to grips with. In Williams case, as they may not have had money.
I suspect Williams could get a driver with more cash if they thought the balance was that far tipped against Latifi. I see him as an 'alright driver' who could do well if he got the right drive at the right time, otherwise he will just fill seats which, lets face all but a few ever do.