2024 pecking order predictions

[ali623]

My expectation is that Red Bull will still be consistently the strongest throughout the season, but on their day any of Ferrari, Mercedes or McLaren (who seem confident) will be able to challenge Max for the win. The main difference being that RB/Max will always be there at the front, either winning or coming second/third at worst. Basically last season but closer, with the other teams actually capable of challenging RB more regularly.

Aston Martin, I have no idea, but I see them behind that group, followed by Alpine and the rest. If the grid continues to converge as it did in 2023, the order will swing track to track, especially in qualifying.

My bold prediction would be McLaren coming out with the fastest car, they seem wildly confident for a team that has consistently played down expectations over the past few years.

[mzivtins]

Yet to see anything more than the same petty propaganda from Merc. Terrible social media interactions over things like seat fittings, lots of different people saying different things without anything consistent.

AMR and McLaren seem to be the ones to watch, Ferrari have been reasonable quiet which is always the best way to be, Merc have just maintained their confusion to fans and f1 fans alike.

RBR have significant weight savings through innovation in their carbon lay and construction, which is free performance whichever way you look at it, so it is clear they are still very much refining and improving.

Oddly, with McLaren starting at a much stronger position than last year, it will play into the hands of RBR with maybe 2-3 drivers fighting for p2, the point deficit between p1 and p2 in the standings could grow really fast

[Zynerji]

My 2024 predictions:

Q1 separated by .3s 1-20
Q3 separated by .1s 1-10

RBR
MCL
MERC
FERR
WILL
VCARB
AM
ALP
HAS
STAKE

[organic]

Recent driver market move doesn't bode well for Merc/W15 in terms of pecking order

[AR3-GP]

and now back to 2024...

[CMSMJ1]

and now back to 2024...

Yes indeed - that's a good call...

[AR3-GP]

I hope every team is as good as they think they will be.

[Jambier]

No technical changes so:

RBR (but with less margin)
Ferrari / Mercedes (in that order but close)
McLaren / Aston (in that order but close)
Visa RB ( Basically THE big change of the year)
Alpine
Williams
Stake
Haas

[organic]

For season start

RB
-
Ferrari
McLaren
Aston
Merc
-
Toro Rosso
Williams
Alpine
Sauber
-
Haas

[KimiRai]

RB
-
Ferrari
McLaren
Merc/Aston
-
Alpine/Toro Rosso
Williams
Sauber
-
Haas

[mwillems]

RB
Mclaren/Merc/Ferrari (Tight)
Aston
Visa RB
Alpine/Williams (Tight)
Sauber
Haas

[continuum16]

Thought I'd be a bit more illustrative. I had to fabricate the data to get the results I wanted, but these are speculations so let's just say I speculated on the data. I think there is a difference between ultimate quali pace and race pace for some teams.


Basically, RB then Mc/Merc/Ferrari, followed by Aston and then Alpine/Williams on their own islands. RB2 or whatever will bounce around between mixing it with the top 3-4 and going out in Q1. Haas and Sauber will be last, Haas faster in Q, Sauber in races. Basically not a radical change from late 2023.

[Schippke]

1. Red Bull (Really cannot see them throwing away such an advantage; If anything, they're likely to keep it).

2. McLaren (Best example of evolution, considering the steps they made last year with their concept aimed towards 2024, should be able to hit the ground running with better understanding).

3. Mercedes (New design direction and unique concepts might take a bit of time to fine-tune, but should be very close to McLaren at the season start).

4. Ferrari (Despite a lot more confidence coming from the team about resolving last year's car issues, that might also play against them in outright pace terms at least initially... but probably the most room for development looking at car compared to others).

5. Aston Martin (Could very well be ahead of Ferrari and closer to Mercedes/McLaren if their step last year was anything to go by... and a lot more confidence about their prospects for the car this year and a clearer, more aggressive path for development).

6. VCARB (Stupid name... BUT the usage of as much Red Bull parts as possible makes them the dark horse (uhh, bull?) of the grid... could very well trouble some of the teams in-front on the right tracks... wouldn't be surprised to see them in Q3 more often than not).

7. Alpine (At least at the season start, I don't see them being as competitive as they were by season's end last year... but sure to make progress as the season progresses. Their lacking of Power of the Renault PU is a mark against them though.

8. Williams (In the hands of Albon, should show some decent bursts of speed and a potential chance of Q3 appearances, but talks of their car running behind aren't exactly flattering).

9. Sauber (Screw the other names they're called; I'm hoping they're somewhat higher up, but since their burst of performance at the start of 2022, it has been a noticeable decline since; Maybe with James Key onboard, they can finally make progress).

10. Haas (When the new team principal even says its likely we'll be the slowest team at season's start... hard to argue anything else. Another year of inconsistencies it seems from having a car that barely make sit out of Q1, to randomly getting into Q5 and starting P7).

[Timtim99]

1. Red Bull (Really cannot see them throwing away such an advantage; If anything, they're likely to keep it).

2. McLaren (Best example of evolution, considering the steps they made last year with their concept aimed towards 2024, should be able to hit the ground running with better understanding).

3. Mercedes (New design direction and unique concepts might take a bit of time to fine-tune, but should be very close to McLaren at the season start).

4. Ferrari (Despite a lot more confidence coming from the team about resolving last year's car issues, that might also play against them in outright pace terms at least initially... but probably the most room for development looking at car compared to others).

5. Aston Martin (Could very well be ahead of Ferrari and closer to Mercedes/McLaren if their step last year was anything to go by... and a lot more confidence about their prospects for the car this year and a clearer, more aggressive path for development).

6. VCARB (Stupid name... BUT the usage of as much Red Bull parts as possible makes them the dark horse (uhh, bull?) of the grid... could very well trouble some of the teams in-front on the right tracks... wouldn't be surprised to see them in Q3 more often than not).

7. Alpine (At least at the season start, I don't see them being as competitive as they were by season's end last year... but sure to make progress as the season progresses. Their lacking of Power of the Renault PU is a mark against them though.

8. Williams (In the hands of Albon, should show some decent bursts of speed and a potential chance of Q3 appearances, but talks of their car running behind aren't exactly flattering).

9. Sauber (Screw the other names they're called; I'm hoping they're somewhat higher up, but since their burst of performance at the start of 2022, it has been a noticeable decline since; Maybe with James Key onboard, they can finally make progress).

10. Haas (When the new team principal even says its likely we'll be the slowest team at season's start... hard to argue anything else. Another year of inconsistencies it seems from having a car that barely make sit out of Q1, to randomly getting into Q5 and starting P7).

Just like football a lot of people just say things they don’t know about motor sport no one knew Redbull will dominate last year so let just wait before we write what we don’t know, as for me may the best team win THIS YEAR

[Schippke]

Just like football a lot of people just say things they don’t know about motor sport no one knew Redbull will dominate last year so let just wait before we write what we don’t know, as for me may the best team win THIS YEAR

It’s a personal prediction, not concrete… so hush down. Yes, nobody knew Red Bull prior to pre-season testing would dominate the season as they did, but afterwards there was enough evidence to suggest they would be the ones to beat.