2025 Season: Pecking order discussion

[JPower]

It is inconceivable how anybody could have come up with these numbers based on testing. They genuinely dont correlate to anything we actually saw and would require making all kinds of assumptions that are impossible to know and which would completely devalue the 'mathematical' analysis because they'd be utilizing preconceived notions of competitiveness.

Clickbait?

I mean, it's F1. Being an F1 journalist requires having to constantly conjure up takes without actually having enough meaningful information to do so in any kind of truly professional manner because of how 'behind closed doors' so much of the F1 world really is. So I'm not gonna say it's clickbait as much as it is likely some disguised attempt at a high effort analysis that looks professionally laid out and concluded, but without having any terribly valid basis underpinning it.

Though I'm also saying this without having access to the written article to know if they go over their methodology, but I'm gonna be insistent on the 'inconceivable' claim here because there's legit no way these numbers make any sense based on the actual testing laptimes I saw without them making a bunch of assumptions that could only themselves be based on their own idea of what the pecking order already is. So yea, as a mathematical analysis, it seems utterly worthless. Though of course it probably will be closer than if we did analyze the timings on face value, as obviously Williams is not gonna be the fastest car in qualifying and Mclaren probably wont be sixth tenths faster than the next best car in race trim. I just dont see the point in making it seem like it's data-driven when it's ultimately based on 'gut instincts' just the same as all us plebs are judging on.

Boretto's analysis is usually fairly accurate as long as you aren't taking the numbers as gospel.

The analysis post 2024 testing had teams grouped fairly close to what happened in the first few races.

The only one he, and others, missed out on was Haas who self-admittedly said they would be last.

Aston isn't likely to be as far off as the analysis says, and I'm sure they addressed that in the article.

[Seanspeed]

Boretto's analysis is usually fairly accurate as long as you aren't taking the numbers as gospel.

Well that's kinda my whole point, yea. I have no doubt his guesses aren't terrible here, but they're also more or less the same general ballpark of what plenty of normal people are capable of guessing. But unless he's got access to privileged information that even most teams likely dont have, his whole numbers analysis part doesn't seem to be worth anything.

[Valencia2012]

1. Mclaren
2. Ferrari
3. Mercedes
4. Red Bull
5. Alpine
6. Williams
7. Aston Martin
8. Haas
9. RB
10. Sauber

[organic]

Verstappen at a ViaPlay event, asked how many teams can compete for the championship:

“at the moment only one, and that team is orange. that is of course a very nice color, but we still have work to do. i think other teams also want to see some improvements, so at the moment it is one team that is clearly ahead.”

[SonicF1]

1. Mercedes
2. McLaren
3. Ferrari
4. Red Bull
5 onwards….who cares

[TeamKoolGreen]

Everyone likes to play up their opposition during testing. Ducati did this in Moto GP. Yamaha was doing some decent times in testing and the Ducati boss said " we didn't expect them to turn it around this fast". Then Yamaha proceeded to have a lacklustre first race.

Red Bull usually starts off strong. It wouldn't surprise me if they are more dialed in for the first couple than Mclaren is

[Seanspeed]

Everyone likes to play up their opposition during testing. Ducati did this in Moto GP. Yamaha was doing some decent times in testing and the Ducati boss said " we didn't expect them to turn it around this fast". Then Yamaha proceeded to have a lacklustre first race.

Red Bull usually starts off strong. It wouldn't surprise me if they are more dialed in for the first couple than Mclaren is

The difference is that Mclaren were top dogs last year and there's nothing to suggest that anybody has caught them.

Also, what Red Bull has 'usually' done matters a lot less now that they're in a very different position. They 'usually' had fantastic in-season development as well, but were poor at this last year. Things have changed.

And Max doesn't strike me as the type to push BS for the sake of promoting the sport, either. I dont think anybody is 'playing up' Mclaren, they really are just the car to beat.

[erudite450]

I'd be shocked if Norris doesn't take pole in Melbourne.

That said, there will be a few surprises in the top 10 come qualifying. I won't be surprised if some of the big 4 lose one of their cars in Q2.

[Fred]

Everyone likes to play up their opposition during testing. Ducati did this in Moto GP. Yamaha was doing some decent times in testing and the Ducati boss said " we didn't expect them to turn it around this fast". Then Yamaha proceeded to have a lacklustre first race.

Red Bull usually starts off strong. It wouldn't surprise me if they are more dialed in for the first couple than Mclaren is

How much things have changed with that last point. 2017-2020 it was the complete opposite, where they were nowhere for the first half, but, at least for 2017-2019, they were fighting for wins in the second half.

[r85]

I'd be shocked if Norris doesn't take pole in Melbourne.

That said, there will be a few surprises in the top 10 come qualifying. I won't be surprised if some of the big 4 lose one of their cars in Q2.

Wouldn't surprise me if Hamilton ends up there. New car in an even tighter and younger field where a small difference can cost multiple places. Monza 2024 is a good example of this.

[SonicF1]

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. McLaren
4. Red Bull
5 onwards…who cares

[TeamKoolGreen]

Everyone likes to play up their opposition during testing. Ducati did this in Moto GP. Yamaha was doing some decent times in testing and the Ducati boss said " we didn't expect them to turn it around this fast". Then Yamaha proceeded to have a lacklustre first race.

Red Bull usually starts off strong. It wouldn't surprise me if they are more dialed in for the first couple than Mclaren is

The difference is that Mclaren were top dogs last year and there's nothing to suggest that anybody has caught them.

Also, what Red Bull has 'usually' done matters a lot less now that they're in a very different position. They 'usually' had fantastic in-season development as well, but were poor at this last year. Things have changed.

And Max doesn't strike me as the type to push BS for the sake of promoting the sport, either. I dont think anybody is 'playing up' Mclaren, they really are just the car to beat.

I guess I am still in denial of McLarens success. McLaren was so consistently that team that could never make that next step. Going back to 2021. I thought it was a mistake for Lando Norris to sign with McLaren again. It seemed like he did it to be loyal.

Even the team was in denial of their success last year. That is partly why they made the strategy errors that they did. Zak Brown thought early last year that his biggest problem was going to be VCARB.

[organic]

Toto Wolff says they may start the season with a disadvantage relative to their rivals. Echoing what red bull have said


So they're expecting to start 4th

Toto: "We have had an uphill challenge over the winter. Our competitors have finished 2024 on a positive note and we know that Ferrari, Red Bull and McLaren in particular should initially have a performance advantage over us .

https://autoracer.it/it/mercedes-lalber ... -della-w16

[selvam_e2002]

we will see suprises from AMR after summer break.

[Chuckjr]

Toto Wolff says they may start the season with a disadvantage relative to their rivals. Echoing what red bull have said


So they're expecting to start 4th

Toto: "We have had an uphill challenge over the winter. Our competitors have finished 2024 on a positive note and we know that Ferrari, Red Bull and McLaren in particular should initially have a performance advantage over us .

https://autoracer.it/it/mercedes-lalber ... -della-w16

It's really hard to tell if he is just underselling -- which is a wise/safe move at the end of the day. So if it's bad, it's expected, and they are "already on it", and if it's good, he overdelivers and they are "pleasantly surprised". This strategy also takes pressure off his drivers. It's a shrewd way to enter the season -- lowering everyone's expectations: he "wins", so to speak, whatever happens. So I honestly can't tell if he is just underselling, or really thinks they are that far behind the sharp end. Something tells me he doesn't really think they are maybe as far as many assume. It will be interesting to watch unfold this weekend. Cars that are good in the wet are generally the more-stable / less-twitchy type, so even if it rains we will still get some ideas about the cars behavior, which is nice...