2026 Pecking order predictions

[the EDGE]

From what I've seen so far...

Aston Martin - Assuming Honda are in the ball park
Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari, Redbull (INPO)
Haas, RB (INPO)
Alpine, Audi
Cadillac

Obviously its way to early to have any real idea at this stage as Millage (reliability) does not equal performance and Headline times are completely meaningless without some sort of benchmark, that we simply do not have

[Emag]

After the barcelona shakedown, if we go add in the "preparedness" on top of the recency bias, I would put them on these tiers :

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari/RedBull
3. RedBull/McLaren -> Only because of the "overheating" rumors, not sure where to keep RedBull. But they're honestly unsubstantiated, so probably on the same tier as Ferrari. I am just generally expecting McLaren to start "slow" compared to the previous top 4.
4. Alpine
5. Haas/RacingBulls
6. Cadillac/Audi

Aston Martin ??
Williams ???

[AR3-GP]

I think Alpine will be 2nd or 3rd fastest at the start of the year.

[Emag]

I can't bring myself to have that much faith on Alpine as a team. They've been trying to break in for so long, yet they barely do anything different year-on-year and just expect results. A change of PU alone will not be enough. I don't know what Flavio is doing on the background, but he also seems like he is a bit of an egomaniac, more than he used to be before. Somehow I doubt there's a nice working environment at Alpine right now.

Historically, judging their performances, the last good Alpine year was 2022. And in 2022, they only finished 4th because of a botched McLaren concept and a very weak Ricciardo. Beyond that, you have to go back to 2018. Which when you think about it, was hardly impressive to begin with. They were often outpaced by Haas, who were a 3 year old team at the time.

They typically always just stagnated, even when it seemed like they put themselves in a good position. Never managed to go beyond that.

If they manage to do it now, then I would personally be very surprised.

[the EDGE]

I think Alpine will be 2nd or 3rd fastest at the start of the year.

I’ve got to ask…

What is it you see on the Alpine that makes you think this

To me, and my untrained eye, it looks to buck all of the trends and be rather rudimentary in comparison to others

Am I missing something?

[AR3-GP]

I think Alpine will be 2nd or 3rd fastest at the start of the year.

I’ve got to ask…

What is it you see on the Alpine that makes you think this

To me, and my untrained eye, it looks to buck all of the trends and be rather rudimentary in comparison to others

Am I missing something?

I also think the car looks different, but rudimentary? No. It also looks extremely developed. Their front wing is in another world of complexity. This doesn't have to mean anything, but I'm seeing consistent murmurs that internally they have hit targets with that car and are quite bullish. It's a david sanchez car. He was previously leading aero at Ferrari.
They also have the Mercedes engine.

[the EDGE]

I think Alpine will be 2nd or 3rd fastest at the start of the year.

I’ve got to ask…

What is it you see on the Alpine that makes you think this

To me, and my untrained eye, it looks to buck all of the trends and be rather rudimentary in comparison to others

Am I missing something?

I also think the car looks different, but rudimentary? No. It also looks extremely developed. Their front wing is in another world of complexity. This doesn't have to mean anything, but I'm seeing consistent murmurs that internally they have hit targets with that car and are quite bullish. It's a david sanchez car. He was previously leading aero at Ferrari.
They also have the Mercedes engine.

There is certainly a variety of FW philosophies on the grid. Time will tell who's is best

[Kamel]

McLaren, Red Bull and the others

[madridista]

I think Alpine will be 2nd or 3rd fastest at the start of the year.

I’ve got to ask…

What is it you see on the Alpine that makes you think this

To me, and my untrained eye, it looks to buck all of the trends and be rather rudimentary in comparison to others

Am I missing something?

It's a david sanchez car. He was previously leading aero at Ferrari.
They also have the Mercedes engine.

Why was he let go?

I also think the car looks different, but rudimentary? No. It also looks extremely developed.

The packaging looks bulky and the car seems to feature a very different solution to the sidepods compared to the top teams, its more likely than not that its alpine who missed something. A whole lot of important people left this organisation over the last 1 and a half years. The technical team is definitely far far less experienced than say 2022-2024, where they finished 5th, 6th, and 6th. I see them as backmarkers (again), ahead of Cadillac, Audi and maybe Williams, but nothing more

[Enstone]

Following these test sessions, my ranking would be as follows:

Ferrari
Mercedes
McLaren
Red Bull
Alpine
Haas
Racing Bulls
Audi
Aston
Cadillac
Williams?

[CHT]

After the barcelona shakedown, if we go add in the "preparedness" on top of the recency bias, I would put them on these tiers :

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari/RedBull
3. RedBull/McLaren -> Only because of the "overheating" rumors, not sure where to keep RedBull. But they're honestly unsubstantiated, so probably on the same tier as Ferrari. I am just generally expecting McLaren to start "slow" compared to the previous top 4.
4. Alpine
5. Haas/RacingBulls
6. Cadillac/Audi

Aston Martin ??
Williams ???

Biggest risk for Aston Martin and Honda will likely be reliability issues because AN is known for pushing things a little too far. Being Honda's only partner, its likely that Honda engine will be highly customized to AN's requirement. Other concern for AMR also its wind tunnel correlation at its new facility. So AMR can either be among the top teams, or at the bottom with likes of Cadillac and Audi if they runs into reliability issues.

[Enstone]

Take it with a grain of salt, but they say Alpine is in a good position. Alpine's car looks extremely developed, but it has been ignored by many.

Innovative DRS, a car that is at the minimum weight limit allowed (unlike Williams and Aston Martin, among others).
They seem to have found a way to generate a lot of front downforce, which explains the very sophisticated front wing design…
There are still some positive elements to note that could make it a competitive car, especially since, according to rumors, Sánchez has already had a major upgrade package approved for the third Grand Prix of the season.

[AR3-GP]

Craig Slater says the following according to his paddock sources who have analyzed the testing data:

Mercedes
Mclaren
Red Bull
Ferrari
Alpine

I would take it with a grain of salt, since testing is only a snapshot. Some teams may be farther away from the potential of their packages at this time.

[CHT]

As the saying goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same.
Guess we wont be seeing a repeat of Brawn F1 surprise this season.

As works team, Merc should have slight advantage over Mclaren at this stage.
But Mclaren should be able to catch up very quickly.

As for RBR, I dont think we will see their true potential until Melbourne.

If engine becomes dominant factor, then we could see Alpine, Williams leading the midfield,
while Mclaren and Merc challenging RB for race wins.

[AR3-GP]

As the saying goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same.
Guess we wont be seeing a repeat of Brawn F1 surprise this season.

I'm sticking with Alpine as the surprise package.