Silly Season 2020/2021 (starting with silliness in 2019)

[Just_a_fan]

He has to be ahead at the summer break i think, cos Charles is so young he's only going to get faster and more consistent, and he's in Seb's way and not going anywhere

Perhaps, and just thinking aloud here, Charles's nice new contract has a "let the old man win" clause followed by "your turn after that".

Ferrari won't win the drivers' title if both score points off each other all the time - unless Ferrari make another F2002 / F2004 of course.

[izzy]

Perhaps, and just thinking aloud here, Charles's nice new contract has a "let the old man win" clause followed by "your turn after that".

Ferrari won't win the drivers' title if both score points off each other all the time - unless Ferrari make another F2002 / F2004 of course.

yes there's got to be a deal behind it hasn't there, to go 5 years! Tho on racefans they were floating the idea it might be that it was Ferrari who wanted 5 years and they persuaded Charles by giving him a "No Lewis" clause...

[Manoah2u]

Whether there is a 'No Lewis' clause in any of the Ferrari's driver's contracts, i have no idea.

But if Vettel holds such a clause: well, Vettel hasn't been performing enough to maintain in power to ask such a thing. And frankly, it's quite simple then,
adios Vettel, hello Lewis and done and dusted.

If Leclerc holds such a deal, well, funny and all, but let's see Charles do any better than Vettel, Raikkonen, Alonso, or Massa for that matter to bring in any
WDC to the team again. The last driver that got the reds a WDC was Raikkonen, and he couldn't repeat that feat and is down at Alfa now, and got ditched before.
Alonso was the big hope after that, but that went nowhere. Same with Vettel.
If Leclerc wants to hold any ground, he gotta be on it for 2020 big time.

Because fact of the matter is simple: Hamilton is a 6 time WDC, and in much more power and achievements either Vettel or especially LeClerc holds.
If there's any driver out there that has the biggest potential or chance for Ferrari to have success, it's not LeClerc, it's Hamilton.

And that means any supposed no-ham clause is either out the door fast with no consequences, or, well, then adios LeClerc to Alfa or Haas or Renault,
and welcome Hamilton with perhaps a little Verstappen on the side.

Again, not the least, because if you take the opponent's biggest asset (Hamilton), then you leave them hurt, and have that asset yourself, is quite a gain.

Especially if the budget cap comes into play, where driver salary doesn't get included in that cap.
Which means all the more reason to grab a guy like Hamilton.

After all, let's say you can now spend 400 million euro's, that's the budget. That includes drivers and personell paychecks.
So let's say Hamilton asks 100 million a year, and let's say LeClerc asks 5 million.
That's 95 million to spend on the car if you go for Leclerc over Hamilton, that's quite the business.
But if a budget cut comes into play and there is simply a 100 million limit you can ever invest in the car and engine,
but drivers are not included in that paycheck, then suddenly, there's no 95 million benefit/discount on the car from having a guy like LeClerc.

Which means anybody with a brains would attract a guy like Hamilton immediately.

I personally believe that the budget cap will have a huge influence on seats of drivers.

Sure, smaller teams always will have a smaller budget, so there will be a need for cheap (pay) drivers,
but looking at a guy like Ricciardo, which takes lots of millions from the team's budget that also could be spend on the car - regardless of how good the driver is.

with the budget cap, the driver not being included, turns things around quite a lot, and if a team has enough money anyway, then they're rather gonna spend that
money on a driver with a big paycheck if that driver is so good it'll make the difference.

after all, for the car's budget, it no longer makes a difference to hire Ricciardo or let's say Mazepin.

Mazepin today brings (im theorizing here) 50 million to the team, Ricciardo TAKES 50 million from the team.
That's a 100 million dollar difference, which could mean the difference between P4 or P5 in the WCC.
If Ricciardo's better than Mazepin, but not 100 million dollar better in better aerodynamics and thus laptimes, then Mazepin gets the seat, not Daniel.

With the budget cap however,

The car's budget stays the same no matter which driver they'll hire.
In other words, the Aero for the car stays as it is. No win from 50 million dollars in improving the front wing to find 2 seconds per lap (again, exegerating here),
from Mazepin, as that money can't go to the car anyway.

So now, the question is. Will we give Mazepin a seat 'for free' ? We don't pay him anything, so we won't lose anything.
Or will we pay Ricciardo 50 million, and see Daniel's better skills get the car P4 in the WCC where Mazepin would get it P5 or P6?

this is why i think the now experienced and talented drivers are going to stay quite a while in F1 and mean so much more to a team when the budget cap is in effect.

[izzy]

with the budget cap, the driver not being included, turns things around quite a lot, and if a team has enough money anyway, then they're rather gonna spend that
money on a driver with a big paycheck if that driver is so good it'll make the difference.

this is why i think the now experienced and talented drivers are going to stay quite a while in F1 and mean so much more to a team when the budget cap is in effect.

yes this is a good point, drivers will be more expensive than ever, and with exactly 3 top teams and 3 top drivers it's a great part of the intrigue. Didn't Mercedes have a little conversation with Charles, did i read? That'd scare the pants off Ferrari, so i bet Nicolas did lunch with Toto just to have that effect. With Valtteri STILL on a 1-year contract...

Ferrari must be able to see that if all the drivers had swapped over and they'd ended up with Lewis, they could have won 2017 and 2018 at least, even 2019 not impossible. and now they have Charles who looks like he could be on a similar level BUT he's too young and inexperienced still. So they wanted 5 years, looking at Mercedes' policy of stability and not wanting to train him up for somebody else.

The question is why Charles wanted 5 years. It's risky for him, if the 2021 car turns out 3rd best, and probably costing a LOT of money as Ferrari won't have signed to pay him €30+mil from 2022 will they, which he could've got on a new contract then. Lewis will be on 40 i wouldn't be surprised. So hence the tempting "what's in it for Charles" speculation

[Manoah2u]

If charles is the one who wanted a 5-year deal, then i'm sure charles is simply making sure he has a place to stay and thus get money.

he's on fire right now, but that can turn around for whatever reason. I think nobody expected for example that Alonso wouldn't get atleast1 WDC with Ferrari,
and quite frankly, i think most people also expected more from Vettel with Ferrari. With a little leveled head, it's not hard to imagine Ferrari itself is part of the problem.
In other words, chances that if Vettel nor Alonso, both multiple WDC's can't make it, then you should be honest and wonder if you can, even if you'd have the talent.
so then there's going to be a choice: stay at Ferrari and be another one who misses the WDC mark, or risk moving to another team and at best luck, get a WDC,
but it's a big question mark. Red Bull doesn't want him, so that leaves only Mercedes. Will Mercedes stay? Will mercedes really have interest in him? Or do they just
want to make the smart move and steal Ferrari's biggest asset?

So then there's the thing about staying with the hand that fed you, and go for certainty. 5 years brings atleast certainty, and, let's face it, will guarantee him of big paychecks.
I don't think it's such a bad move from Charles then. He's staying at a rich,stable team with the best options for him possible, including money.

Not to forget that the driver is going to make more of a difference after the budget cap, and the aero revision, so if Charles really is that talented, it's his chance to show his worth.

[ME4ME]

If your childhood dream has been to win the championship with Ferrari, then what is there really to wonder about for Charles. The lure of achieving that goal might hold more value to him than one or even two world championships with lets say Mercedes.

I'm not sure Red Bull wouldn't want Charles. Especially if Verstappen would leave, then they'd probably be quite desperate. But its all hypothetical now anyway.

This silly season will be interesting. So much can happen yet Horners prediction holds merit too - the big players might all decide (or be forced to) to stay put.

[izzy]

If your childhood dream has been to win the championship with Ferrari, then what is there really to wonder about for Charles. The lure of achieving that goal might hold more value to him than one or even two world championships with lets say Mercedes.

I'm not sure Red Bull wouldn't want Charles. Especially if Verstappen would leave, then they'd probably be quite desperate. But its all hypothetical now anyway.

This silly season will be interesting. So much can happen yet Horners prediction holds merit too - the big players might all decide (or be forced to) to stay put.

it is going to be a fantastic silly season! Let me list the few things we know:
1. Valtteri is only on a 1-year expiring end 2020
2. Max and Lewis' contracts expire then too and so does Seb's
3. Lewis met John Elkann twice in 2019
4. Lewis and Toto have talked openly about Lewis->Ferrari
5. Now Charles is fixed, if Lewis or Max move, their old team HAS to grab the other one, do they not???

so anything could happen or nothing. The only fixture is Charles, now, which still seems a bit weird to me for such a long period even tho yes it's Ferrari and could just be emotional, but that's what managers are for isn't it. Mercedes not nailing down the No1 wingman seems strange too, to me.

Surely now anyway everybody's going to wait and see for a bit, what the 2020 cars are like and the inside word about the 2021 cars, the engines and if Ferrari can operate better at the track as Mattia beds in. But I'd be excited by Lewis moving, personally, more than staying put. To an Adrian car, would be best of all, talk about a dream team, and if Max moves first...

[gshevlin]

Whether there is a 'No Lewis' clause in any of the Ferrari's driver's contracts, i have no idea.

Even if such a clause exists, it can always be negotiated away, if the price is right.
In 1989, after it became clear that Alain Prost was going to leave Mclaren, Ferrari wanted to sign him, but there was a problem. Nigel Mansell had signed for Ferrari in 1988, with equal priority alongside Gerhard Berger, but the contract had a clause in it that stated that if Berger left Ferrari, he would become the #1 driver, with priority over everything, including the spare car.
Alain Prost was not going to sign for Ferrari and be a #2 to Nigel Mansell, so negotiations took place to have Mansell agree to give up the #1 status and revert back to "equal treatment" status in 1990. We can be sure that a large sum of money made its way to the Mansell bank accounts as part of that agreement. (Mansell may have regretted taking the money and agreeing to the change, given that Prost swiftly grabbed better engineering support within the team in 1990, which triggered Mansell's original decision to retire from F1 in the summer of 1990).

[selvam_e2002]

why no one thinking about "if Mercedes quit" Hamilton back to Mclaren? I think this is the right choice for him in 2021 if Mercedes move away from F1.

As ferrari signed Lecrec till 2024 why Hamilton need to move to ferrari? If he move to ferrari the history will repeat like in 2007. This time other way around. I strongly doubt he would sign Ferrari in 2021. He will use this to get more salary in Mercedes or elsewhere not with Ferrari!

[Jolle]

why no one thinking about "if Mercedes quit" Hamilton back to Mclaren? I think this is the right choice for him in 2021 if Mercedes move away from F1.

As ferrari signed Lecrec till 2024 why Hamilton need to move to ferrari? If he move to ferrari the history will repeat like in 2007. This time other way around. I strongly doubt he would sign Ferrari in 2021. He will use this to get more salary in Mercedes or elsewhere not with Ferrari!

No option. McLaren isn’t a works team. If... Mercedes quits, he’ll join them in retirement or move to another works team. Or Wolff (big owner of the team) will find another investor, like VW Group AG.

Another and bigger question, has Philip Morris yet signed a new deal with Ferrari? If they leave the sport we could see a McLaren style downward spiral.

[Manoah2u]

why no one thinking about "if Mercedes quit" Hamilton back to Mclaren? I think this is the right choice for him in 2021 if Mercedes move away from F1.

As ferrari signed Lecrec till 2024 why Hamilton need to move to ferrari? If he move to ferrari the history will repeat like in 2007. This time other way around. I strongly doubt he would sign Ferrari in 2021. He will use this to get more salary in Mercedes or elsewhere not with Ferrari!

Because right now, Mclaren is doing okay, but really nowhere near anything remotely WDC capable.
Why would Lewis waste his 'final' F1 career at starting again from zilch with a team that let him down before and 'only' gave him 1 title? Even if Mclaren becomes an essential 'Works' Mercedes team, then it's still gonna take precious time to get 'back' to the front, whilst both Ferrari and Red Bull are already there.

Though it would be the biggest shock factor to me possibly ever if it be any different, I don't think Lewis has any interest of going to RedBull.

So if Mercedes would pull out, the answer will be simple: Ferrari (outside of retirement, but i'm not so sure he's there yet).

Mclaren is not going to be WDC material anytime soon. In 2021, they're gonna carry Merc engines again, which in any case is a good thing, but they'll once again need to adapt for that engine implementation and i'm not expecting them to have a golden bullet recipy with the 2021 revisions that will get them in front of everyone like happened with Brawn in 2009.

And even then, if Mercedes pulls out, then let's assume the team gets put up 'for sale', and they won't fuse with another existing team but somebody else buys into them.
Then that team still has the best bets, after all, they'd be buying the team that carries the knowledge and material that brought them 6 titles, and could grab them a 7th in 2020.
That isn't lost overnight, even if Toto himself would 'vanish' in thin air.

It would for example, be smart, if the buyer makes sure they get a good contract with Mercedes and that Merc will be essentially their works team like they were with Mclaren before. That would get them the biggest chance to continue on the Mercedes success formula.

I think the biggest and most probable contender there would be Aston Martin.
Yes, they're building a RB-themed hypercar with the help of Adrian Newey,
and they're sponsoring RedBull still right now.

But in the end, it's Honda powering the RB cars, not Aston Martin.

I could see Aston Martin stepping away from RedBull real easily (and keep their Valkyrie 'friendship' intact),
and start their own team by buying AMG Mercedes, and happily taking Mercedes engines (which they have and if i'm right still do with many of their cars).
They are more or less guaranteed of success with that plan, and will be able to sell even more Aston Martins i'm sure.
It would then become Aston Martin F1 Racing Team - Mercedes.

Biggest question(s) that raise for me then are the following:

Will Hamilton stay at the transformed team, or will he go to Ferrari?
Will Verstappen stay at RedBull, or go to Aston Martin F1 ?
Will Newey go to Aston Martin, or stay at RedBull ?

In the Aston Martin theory, i'd be very inclined to believe Hamilton would actually definately go to Ferrari.
We will also have had 2020 to see how Honda and RedBull will or will not grant Verstappen a WDC chance.

Even if Mercedes themselves will pull out of F1 in 2020 (as a F1 team), they will still have done and laid out
all the work for the 2021 contender, and the engine formula stays the same, and Mercedes have won all the
WCC (and WDC) as of 2014, so they've got the best cards on the table and had most finances available to put
into a worth 2021 contender, so i'd say Mercedes (transformed into Aston Martin) would still be the best chance
for a WDC and WCC apart from Ferrari, where the biggest flaws have been driver mistakes (Vettel) and seriously bad judgement in tactics, but if you'd take that away, they're a definate contender for the WDC and WCC.

So long story short, that's honestly why nobody's thinking Hamilton back to Mclaren.

Simply because Mclaren, no matter what scenario and circumstance, will not have any reasonable prospect of being WDC capable in 2021 and beyond. At best a lucky win, but that's really it.

I also think Mercedes might do good for themselves in staying in F1 for 2021 atleast another season if they are confident they can fight for the championship, since it shows they won't 'just' do good thanks to the V6 engine change but also under heavy aero and rule/concept changes, which would further be good marketing, so i honestly don't think Mercedes will pull out of F1 in the end at all.
Still, if they do, again, i'm pretty confident Aston Martin will take over the team,
which opens a whole other window of possibilities for the driver market.

[Big Tea]

IF Merc withdraw, and Hamilton headed to Mclaren, would it not be likely a large contingent of the team go with him? There would probably be enough knowledge just about construct a copy of the car Merc had on the drawing board for the following year. No doubt Mclaren would want their own design, but they would see the advantage of having a mirror image of what has been the dominant car/team/driver ready 'out of the box'?

Yes, not as easy as cut and past of course, but well up the road from where they have been this last few years, with an engine Merc has its name on, so probably develop as well as fully support and with the leaders of those who would have done the job 'in house' had the team not withdrawn. (?)

[izzy]

Though it would be the biggest shock factor to me possibly ever if it be any different, I don't think Lewis has any interest of going to RedBull.

So if Mercedes would pull out, the answer will be simple: Ferrari (outside of retirement, but i'm not so sure he's there yet).

And even then, if Mercedes pulls out, then let's assume the team gets put up 'for sale', and they won't fuse with another existing team but somebody else buys into them.
Then that team still has the best bets, after all, they'd be buying the team that carries the knowledge and material that brought them 6 titles, and could grab them a 7th in 2020.
That isn't lost overnight, even if Toto himself would 'vanish' in thin air.

I think the biggest and most probable contender there would be Aston Martin.

can Aston Martin afford MercedesF1? Forbes value the team at a Billion Dollars! and i thought Aston are quite short of cash.

But altho apparently Ola Kallenius likes electric i don't think MercedesF1 are going anywhere. In 2015 Toto said the advertising value was $1.5 Bn, for 2016 i saw 2.9 and last year $3.5 Billion. And it only costs them about 80mil or something, even before the cost cap. It's by miles the best investment Daimler have

Lewis to Red Bull is just a personal dream of mine, but imagine them if Max left! What could they do? Panic!!! And he'd sell a lot more cans than Max even. Meanwhile for Lewis, he wanted to join in 2011, and he can see Honda rising and that very awesome engineering they come up with year after year and how well they operate too

[selvam_e2002]

If Max leaves I think Honda also leaves F1. Honda not committed to F1 beyond 2021 so we never know. Max may extend 1 year deal with RB then he will decide based on the RB+Honda performance.

Personally I would love to see max at Mclaren. Max is very young and if he end with Mclaren+Mercedes Engine in 2022 he can win WDC in with Mclaren by EOD of 2024.

If Honda leaves in 2021 then there is a chance for Alonso to RB because RB then go to Renault Engine. It can happen. Hamilton to RB very difficult.

[Manoah2u]

Alonso won't be back, as unfortunate as that sounds, that ship has sailed and it's simply done for, no matter what Alonso himself claims.

Alonso only wants to enter F1 with a WDC guaranteed car.
Which team potentiall holds those cards?

If RedBull with Honda will be a success, then RB won't need Alonso since they have Max. So, no space for pricey Alonso.

Mercedes is already a success, has Hamilton, and only Bottas' seat is up for grabs but they won't pair Alonso to Lewis, and they seem to have little interest in the end anyway.

Ferrari has been with Alonso and it is almost mirror situation with Vettel, it just doesn't work. Even though i personally believe Alonso to be better than Seb, it's not like if Vettel would now step out and Alonso got in, that Ferrari suddenly gets the WDC thanks to Fernando. Besides, their biggest asset now is LeClerc and though he's lacking Seb's experience, LeClerc imho is much bigger chance of becoming a WDC than Vettel, and then why would they get Alonso?

Mclaren is out of the question, let's be honest here.

So honestly, Alonso is simply out of the question.

The RedBull-Renault relation has been permanently damaged and if Honda doesn't work and says goodbye i think there's much bigger chance that RedBull simply pulls out of F1 completely instead of go back to play second fiddle with a subpar Renault product. Personally i don't see Honda leaving at all, they're doing fine with RedBull and Toro Rosso (Alpha Tauri).

But it must be said though, there's the danger of Max leaving for RBR-Honda. Ferrari made it clear they're not welcoming Max, and i think they're speaking truth. They don't actually need him. They need Lewis if anyone and that'll happen much easier. But again, if that happens, there's a seat at Mercedes which could lure Max there.
In the end though, that all depends on 2020. This season. If RBR-Honda gives Max a honest chance on the WDC, then there's no way Max will leave no matter whether Ferrari or Mercedes begs him. RBR-Honda would also simply double his salary if neccesary to keep him, it's that simple anyway.

But yes, in the unfortunate case that RBR-Honda for 2020 does not bring even a winning car, then there is a definate chance Max will leave and it's probable that he then will go to Mercedes. Whether that will be to replace Bottas and drive alongside Hamilton (which would be phenomenal), or whether it would be to replace Lewis whom goes to Ferrari (which would be just as awesome) remains to be seen.

But if it's true that Toto Wolff is going to leave the Mercedes team, and if Mercedes is going to stop their F1 Team project and return being a devoted supplier, then no matter what the team will turn in to (as mentioned before i'd expect it to be Aston Martin, no matter what Aston's current sitation holds, remember Stroll has interest too, and who's to say Lawrence Stroll won't simply use more of his wealth to buy Mercedes, and baptize it Aston Martin after making a smart deal), in any case, they will need a very fast, capable and sufficiently experienced main driver.
In that scenario, i don't think Lewis will stay, so what's there to choose from?

Vettel will lose his 'german selling card' because the team won't be in 'german' hands anymore, and it's not like Seb has been selling success recently. LeClerc has a worthy Ferrari contract. Max would be the only real assett to get their hands on, as it would also immediately hurt RedBull's chances for the WDC or WCC. Albon seems like he's pretty good and decent, but he's simply not on Max' level, nor is anybody available to get a RB seat.

Again as for the supposed 'Aston Martin doesn't have the money to buy the Mercedes team':
If that's really the case, then people are forgetting Lawrence Stroll. Though Lawrence Stroll currently is involved and invested in Racing Point, of which there is a 'consortium' that finacnes it that means he's not the only investor there. Stroll has vast wealth to his disposal, and he has mentioned before interest in turning Racing Point into Aston Martin.
Even though that's probably still on the table, i think the opportunity to do something even bigger with guaranteed success is a chance he won't pass on. If Lawrence would finance buying Mercedes and turning it into Aston Martin, then he'd certainly get a good deal for himself out of that, and he'd still have Racing Point in his wallet.

Priority then would be to have a fast driver. He probably would want to keep Bottas, but he'd must concider getting his hands on Verstappen, or perhaps Ocon. Apart from Max and Ocon, there's a chance for Sainz and Perez to end up there, but let's not forget Daniel Ricciardo.

We could actually see Daniel Ricciardo paired with either Bottas or perhaps even Lance Stroll even though he's not that spectacular, he is the son of Lawrence and though Bottas has been in contention for the WDC and is a GP winner, it remains to be seen how much that is due to Bottas and how much it's due to the car he had, i personally believe the latter.

Bottas to Renault, Ricciardo to Aston Martin. Lewis to Ferrari, Vettel retires or replaces Lewis' seat. Max stays at RBR Honda. Perhaps Stroll to Aston. Or both Verstappen and Ricciardo get signed at Aston, and RBR has to do with Albon and Gasly or Kvyat. It would surely take RB out of WDC / WCC window. And would most certainly have a ferociously strong pairing of Daniel & Max @ Aston Martin and Lewis & Charles @ Ferrari. I'd be in for that!

That is offcourse, IF Mercedes actually decides to leave and IF Lewis actually decides to go to Ferrari.
I believe those two factors pay the most influence to how the grid will shape up for 2021.

Lastly i'd expect to see either Mick Schumacher @ Alfa Romeo in 2021 or Kubica in a race seat to replace Giovanazzi.