It was written in the stars, or rather the rumourmill, and today, Renault F1 has confirmed that Fernando Alonso will return to the team with which he won his two F1 World Championships with.
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Kubica will never return to a race seat of any decently financed team.
Hamilton will never return to McLaren either. That's like ten steps backward.
The only other place for Hamilton is at Ferrari. And i can only see it with a direct Vettel / Hamilton swap.
Mercedes will be stupid to leave the sport at this time when the investment is coming good. Their brand image over the last four years has really skyrocketed. As for Toto Wolf let us not forgot that he is the motosprot director of entire Mercedes and not just the F1 team principal. He has too many strings attached he cannot leave that easily. And any other team principal post is actually a demotion. Only FIA president or Liberty CEO (very unlikely) is an upward move for Toto.
Somehow I do see the appeal of Hamilton in a Ferrari, and for the Ferrari brand itself, but, with Hamilton one of the few vocal drivers about health, environment and ethical problems, I don't see him partner up with Philip Morris.
Kubica will never return to a race seat of any decently financed team.
Hamilton will never return to McLaren either. That's like ten steps backward.
The only other place for Hamilton is at Ferrari. And i can only see it with a direct Vettel / Hamilton swap.
Mercedes will be stupid to leave the sport at this time when the investment is coming good. Their brand image over the last four years has really skyrocketed. As for Toto Wolf let us not forgot that he is the motosprot director of entire Mercedes and not just the F1 team principal. He has too many strings attached he cannot leave that easily. And any other team principal post is actually a demotion. Only FIA president or Liberty CEO (very unlikely) is an upward move for Toto.
according to Dieter Rencken Mercedes can buy Toto and Niki's shares at the end of the year:
RaceFans understands that the shareholdings of Wolff and Lauda revert to Daimler at the end of 2020, with a complex formula based on exposure, capital investment and operating costs determining their value.
With Ferrari basically saying “our future is Leclerc”, a big part of a possible re-shuffle for 2021 and the years beyond evaporated for some, like Verstappen. Good chance now that Hamilton’s announcement for the same period at AMG is imminent. For the hopefuls, Ricciardo and Sainz, this would leave only “second driver” seats at the big three.
I really wanted to see a change in 2021 in terms of drivers changing teams! Verstappen in a Mercedes vs Hamilton would have brought so much excitement...no one will change teams by the looks of it!
Only if Russell steps up to Mercedes in case Bottas has a "bad" 2020...which will not be the case i think! Vettel not going anywhere also...no need for him or Ferrari to change at all...could be the strongest pairing on the grid if Vettel manages to wake up and surpass his insecurities this year!
A pity again for Ricciardo i think because i don't see him getting a top drive...but who knows? Maybe the field in 2021 will be close enough for Renault to have a shot at podiums at least...!
Mclaren could be an option for Ricciardo in case Norris doesn't get it right in 2020...but is Mclaren a better bet than Renault for 2021?? Not so sure...
"The only rule is there are no rules" - Aristotle Onassis
I'm pretty confident Mclaren will be a better bet than Renault. Mercedes engine and a good base at Mclaren which has restructured and accepted their previous claims they had best aero and didn't want to change that in the end saw the light and changed, for the good.
Renault is stubborn thanks to Abiteboul, and as long as he doesn't get replaced, there will be no progress, even if for some wonder their engine becomes/is the best of the field.
I kind of expected Verstappen to stay at RedBull anyway, but expected to see how 2020 would pan out. I guess they offered some amazing money and some good contract clauses.
And on top of that, i guess they really must be seeing something good from Honda for 2020.
With Max out of the picture, that leaves some spots still open.
Hamilton still could stay, or leave for Ferrari.
Either way i'm inclined to believe there will be a seat available for 2021 @ Mercedes, as i wouldn't be surprised to see more Bottas weakness in 2020.
I think Mercedes would then do good to grab Daniel Ricciardo. Max is no longer available and Vettel despite being German hasn't really shown to be progress.
Instead, it might do Mercedes good if Vettel stays another year at Ferrari and cause inter-team chaos.
Should Hamilton leave, whether that is because he simply relishes a Ferrari challenge or Mercedes pulls the plug, then they need a capable replacement,
and from what's left, well, Ricciardo really is the only one guaranteed for success.
Even if Ocon was part of their programme, he is not a race winner, he is a diva, and i think he'd fit right as ready at 'french' home base Renault.
I could very well see either a swap between Bottas and Ricciardo,
or Ricciardo replacing Lewis (who goes to Ferrari then) and Bottas then staying.
Either way, Verstappen now solid with RedBull gives much more chances for other drivers at top seats.
"Explain the ending to F1 in football terms"
"Hamilton was beating Verstappen 7-0, then the ref decided F%$& rules, next goal wins
while also sending off 4 Hamilton players to make it more interesting"
From RB perspective they had to do it as fast as possible. If they'd have agreed to have a look after the first couple of races, they could have been at risk if their performance would not be as expected.
I'm pretty confident Mclaren will be a better bet than Renault. Mercedes engine and a good base at Mclaren which has restructured and accepted their previous claims they had best aero and didn't want to change that in the end saw the light and changed, for the good.
Renault is stubborn thanks to Abiteboul, and as long as he doesn't get replaced, there will be no progress, even if for some wonder their engine becomes/is the best of the field.
I kind of expected Verstappen to stay at RedBull anyway, but expected to see how 2020 would pan out. I guess they offered some amazing money and some good contract clauses.
And on top of that, i guess they really must be seeing something good from Honda for 2020.
With Max out of the picture, that leaves some spots still open.
Hamilton still could stay, or leave for Ferrari.
Either way i'm inclined to believe there will be a seat available for 2021 @ Mercedes, as i wouldn't be surprised to see more Bottas weakness in 2020.
I think Mercedes would then do good to grab Daniel Ricciardo. Max is no longer available and Vettel despite being German hasn't really shown to be progress.
Instead, it might do Mercedes good if Vettel stays another year at Ferrari and cause inter-team chaos.
Should Hamilton leave, whether that is because he simply relishes a Ferrari challenge or Mercedes pulls the plug, then they need a capable replacement,
and from what's left, well, Ricciardo really is the only one guaranteed for success.
Even if Ocon was part of their programme, he is not a race winner, he is a diva, and i think he'd fit right as ready at 'french' home base Renault.
I could very well see either a swap between Bottas and Ricciardo,
or Ricciardo replacing Lewis (who goes to Ferrari then) and Bottas then staying.
Either way, Verstappen now solid with RedBull gives much more chances for other drivers at top seats.
Hmmm, I expect Bottas to be replaced with Russel at some point, probably at 2022, if or when Hamilton extends his contract again by two years. Then for the long term planning they could go for another extension on Hamilton, see a strong Russel or go for Verstappen in 2023. Guys like Ricciardo and Sainz missed out a bit. Their chance for succes is when their current teams see a chance to challenge the big boys, like Button had in 2009.
Bottas might not be the most interesting driver, But he was the perfect driver next to Hamilton and did become second in the standings! In other words, without Hamilton they still would have became world champion. But, just like Barrichello, Massa and Irvine, not a team leader like that other driver... if Russel gets the Mercedes drive anytime soon, Bottas would be of great value sitting next to Leclerc at Ferrari.
Well the thing with Bottas is, he's going to be a potential hazard for a WCC.
With arguably a harder 2020 for the WCC battle for Mercedes with both Ferrari and RedBull in for podiums and wins,
it's essential that the Nr2 driver in the team performs strong aswell, and to be honest, Bottas isn't that guy.
I think Raikkonen would have been a much more interesting teammate to Hamilton.
The only reason Bottas kept up with the WDC standings is mainly due to the fact that Vettel and Ferrari's strategists messed up so bad.
Vettel drove too many times into his own teammate, and let's not forget how he also collected Verstappen. The explosive relation between
LeClerc and Vettel (no matter who's to blame) did not help either and gave Bottas many times a position which he did not 'earn' on his own strenght.
Then there's the transition year of RBR, some strong performances by Verstappen but then again also some bad luck there, and Mercedes has recieved
a good amount of luck.
2020 will be much harder. RBR and Verstappen will be much bigger influence for the podium spots. I'm confident Ferrari will find some improvement too
and above all will implement strict team orders and i'm sure Vettel also realizes he's on his last chance for a title so will have to step up.
Competition will be fiercer.
Now the thing here is, whilst Hamilton clearly is a step above, still, i'd concider Hamilton, Verstappen, Leclerc and Vettel the ones on comparable level all
capable of a WDC. Bottas does not belong in that group, nor, imho, does Albon.
That means the strongest contender for most combined points finish will not be Mercedes, and it won't be RedBull either, it will be Ferrari,
and it's all due to the fact that Bottas is not on that level, which makes Bottas the weakest link. Yes, he's a good boi lap dog for Hamilton and Mercedes,
but that comes at a prize.
Especially since as i've mentioned a while ago, Bottas won't be Mercedes priority for a title in 2020, it will be Hamilton as it will be bigger news and selling
if Hamilton, in a Mercedes, will equal/beat the legendary Schumacher.
Which means Mercedes' priority will be Hamilton 1st, and Bottas as a wedge between the rest, which usually ends up that that wedge will slow down the competition
enough to keep Lewis' Nr1 podium finish safe, but at the cost of that 2nd spot and perhaps even 3rd spot,
which is exactly how the WCC will be harder for Mercedes to grab in 2020.
So there will be asked more from Bottas than he is capable of, and that is problematic.
Some might call that unfair, as he's got to dance to how Mercedes wants him to dance,
but at the same time we'd ignore that he's subpar for the seat he's in.
After all, if we concider the best seats should go to the best drivers, then at the very least,
Bottas seat should go to either Verstappen, LeClerc or Vettel.
And then again, we're forgetting Daniel Ricciardo, of whom i am 200% certain is a better, faster and stronger driver than Bottas.
I personally fully believe that if Mercedes would have Ricciardo (or Verstappen) aboard for 2020, then the WCC spot would be in much safer hands than is the case right now.
Yes, Lewis would come under more threat for the WDC, but that would only make it more spectacular imho, allthough Mercedes wants to avoid what happens @ Ferrari.
But then that is mainly due to Vettel, which has the same tactics as Rosberg had: Schumacher tactics, just without Michael's talent.
As for 2020, i expect to see Bottas manage perhaps 1 or 2 pole positions during the season at best, but already questionable whether he'll be able to hold on to that.
A win or 2 tops. Albon might make chance for a P1 finish in certain circumstance but then i still think he's going to either crack under pressure or miss out that final stretch.
Verstappen will be much more in the game and so will LeClerc. As long as Vettel keeps his head level, he is a force to be reckoned with but he's more and more frustrated and
running out of time.
And even in those circumstances, i expect Bottas to finish reptitively either 3rd or 4th whilst his teammate is 1st.
Again, not just because Mercedes would 'use him' as a buffer, but the truth is he gets used as such first and foremost because he's not that talented.
If Schumacher, Hamilton, Senna, Verstappen, are A-drivers, then guys like Bottas, Albon, Webber, Barrichello are B-drivers.
Hence my personal belief that 2020 will be too close for Mercedes' comfort to marginally grab the WCC or perhaps even lose it due to keeping Bottas aboard.
2021 will see change and suddenly much less pressure or interest in granting Hamilton yet another WDC, i'd concider 2021 much more open for WDC interest from the team itself.
Knowing competition will surely be even more critical, they're going to HAVE to go with two A-list drivers.
Again, Bottas simply isn't that, which is i think exactly why Mercedes has not extended his contract further ahead.
Who would be a potential A-list driver for 2021 and available?
Leclerc and Verstappen are signed, so out of the discussion.
Russell? The guy lost to Kubica in the standings and it has been mentioned in more than one calculation that Kubica actually had better performance than Russell.
Let's see the far overhyped Russell do against paytrash driver Latifi. Imagine he gets beaten by latifi, how would anybody take him by any margin serious?
I'd have to see Russell in a more competitive car first, and so would Mercedes' big boys, before even remotely concidering throwing him into the mother of seats.
They'd no-brainer go for Ocon over Russell if they had no choice. And again, Ocon still has a lot to prove, and is not a GP winner to start with.
I'd take Sainz over Russell any time and even then Sainz is not a GP winner and i don't know if he's A-list potential, i'd wonder if he'd be a step up from Bottas anyway.
Leaves Raikkonen - but i think it's clear he's out of the question, leaves Alonso - clearly won't get paired to Hamilton and quite frankly just as out of the picture.
So that leaves Vettel as a potential Bottas replacement. Is he faster and better than Bottas? I do think so, but would he clash with Hamilton? Yeah, i very much think so,
and that would be even worse. Not to forget that you could also see a better driver end up at Ferrari and make Ferrari stronger along the way.
Leaves, again, Ricciardo. Blazing fast, able to hold his own to Verstappen, very little crash prone, amazing in braking overtakes, a great happy guy who gets along with
anybody, not a sore or sour person at all, again blazingly fast, a multiple GP winner, and clearly beat Vettel in his maiden year alongside the german.
I think Ricciardo paired to Hamilton for 2021 would be a fantastic and wise choice for Mercedes. Loads of Charisma and i'd argue a far better face to sell for Mercedes than
'theres always an excuse' Bottas. I think most people would agree that Daniel is a faster and better driver than Valterri, so it would be a step up for Mercedes, especially in
ever more competitive circumstances. They have plenty of money around to pay his salary anyway and he'll be worth it every penny of it.
Worst case scenario Vettel retires and gets replaced by Ricciardo @ Ferrari, which would make Ferrari even stronger. just think of that.
Additionally, i think it's not out of the realm to then expect Ricciardo switch seats with Bottas, so we'll see Bottas @ Renault - I think much more of a fitting team for Bottas right now.
It would immediately be an interesting comparison to see how Bottas holds up to Ocon and vise versa.
Was Bottas the perfect driver alongside Hamilton? Yes, absolutely, untill now.
That same went for Barrichello alongside Schumacher.
It was the perfect recipe for getting Schumacher his title streak and have a teammate fast enough to get the WCC under the belt too.
But times change. At some point, things change.
Meanwhile, Bottas would not be a step up from Vettel for Ferrari, so if Vettel doesn't leave for some reason, then they don't benefit from Bottas.
And if Ferrari wants a replacement for Vettel, i'm pretty sure they'd pick part-italian and super fast Ricciardo over Bottas anyway.
Hell, Ricciardo was in the hot seat before in arriving at Ferrari, but it's been said somebody veto'd his arrival and therefore he ended up at Renault.
I could imagine that being Vettel to be honest. So if Vettel would be out, who'd keep him away a 2nd time?
Also, Ferrari's strenght right now is that they have 2 'A-list' drivers. Their only problem is that one of those A-list drivers has the tendancy to crash into others,
including their own team mate. If they'd take Bottas, that would immediately turn down performance, 1 A-list and 1 B-list driver. Yes, they won't crash, but let's
be honest, that's also due to the fact that Bottas simply isn't fast enough.
Hamilton - Bottas : one giant and one flaw.
Vettel - Bottas : one fast and flawed, one slow and flawed.
Bottas - Ocon : tortoise and the hare. Perfect for Renault and abiteboul.
Either way, if Hamilton leaves, then Mercedes has only two options left: Vettel or Ricciardo, and i'm sure they'd go for the last.
Even though i'd be very interested to see Vettel - Ricciardo at Mercedes just as much.
As long as that means we'd be having Hamilton - LeClerc at Ferrari.
"Explain the ending to F1 in football terms"
"Hamilton was beating Verstappen 7-0, then the ref decided F%$& rules, next goal wins
while also sending off 4 Hamilton players to make it more interesting"
Bottas is not slow, you don't have races and quali sessions beating Hamilton on raw pace by being slow.
Where I think he is lacking is having that champion's fire and drive to win at all costs.
Riccardo probably wouldn't be faster although his wheel-to-wheel is brilliant and he is the master of brave but clean overtakes (that said Bottas is very good in defense).
With Max locked down for 5 seasons the pressure is off Mercedes, all they really have to do is focus on keeping Lewis. Do that and the second seat has so many good options, Bottas is doing a good enough job, Riccardo will be available for 2021 if they want to swap, Ocon in 2022 if he impresses at Renault and of course Russel in development at Williams.
The only unknown for Mercedes is what happens if Lewis goes to Ferrari in 2021, in which case Mercedes have free choice of Ricciardo-Bottas-Vettel to fill the 2 seats.
No reason to sign Ricciardo before Lewis decides his future.
Short version, all depends on Hamilton now. Ferrari and Mercedes won't move to sign another driver until his has a contract for 2021-> onwards, if he signs for one the other will probably take Ricciardo (or possibly Vettel).
