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[Henk_v]

I think it is also impressive from pure std deviation point of view. I don't agree, that most driver can drive that consisently, this is why many drivers are very good in qualy then not so good in race.

Sure they can do 2 very similar laps in a row, but that doesn't mean they can do 20. Especially with constantly changing fuel level + tyre wear

What is also insane is that there are 3 overtakes and some backmarker passes in those stats.

(Taking a deep puff of hopium)

There are also 2 sprints to go. One in Sao Paulo. Really wrecking a car can also bottle the qualifying and race. Lets see Piastri and Norris go into a wet T1 like Austin...

I really hope RB figured important stuff out this weekend. New floor, mr Marko stating they found something but where too late to correct, amazing stint on soft and possibly a hampered stint on medium due to going off, skewing the data.

[Paa]

It doesn't matter how good the car is because winning everything is not enough.

There are 116 points to gain so it is enough for either McLaren driver to score just 80 points in the remaining 4+2 events, and that's it. That is Max can maximize everything. If he loses again 10 points then 70 is enough for either Lando/Oscar.

I don't think people realize how much harder to achieve something like this against 2 opponents. As Verstappen is now relies on some bad luck from the others, but then the bad luck needs to hit two drivers, while avoids Max completely.

It basically needs a miracle at this point, or a race ending crash for the McLaren drivers. I'm sure they also know this and will be extra careful.

To be honest it is much more likely at this point that either McLaren driver will have a crash with Max, while the other takes the title.

[organic]

Piastri is out of the title race IMO. He's slumped and there's no sign of a revival. If max drives like he usually does and the car is competitive with McLaren at the remaining races (yes, a big if) then he can push Norris close. It's possible that with ramping pressure Norris won't handle that well. We shouldn't make a definitive statement either way about whether he's completely overcome his tendancies. 4 wins in a row with a competitive car is not out of the ordinary for Max (see 2021, 2022) even when things are tight.

[pantherxxx]

But last year Mclaren was particularly weak in both Qatar and Vegas. If the temperature drops like in Vegas, they will be fighting with the Ferraris, while Verstappen can win. So there's still room to makeup for that 36 points of deficit.

[AR3-GP]

Mclaren was not weak in Qatar. Are you thinking of a different weekend? The curious thing is Mercedes thinks they will be quick in Qatar.

Imo assuming the races will be predictable is a mistake. There could be rain in brazil. Mercedes fighting in Qatar and Las Vegas. There are chances to still win the title as long as Max can win races and you don't assume Lando Norris finishes 2nd.

[Henk_v]

The point Paa makes still stands. If Max drives impeccable, he is not guaranteed a win.

Piastri out of contention makes it worse in my opinion. If Norris and Piastri would devide 2nd and 3rd evenly over the next 4 races and one of them becomes second in both sprints, max can drive all the 1st places he wants and still loses.

The point being he needs 2 drivers to f#ck it up at some point AND have a perfect score.

Ferrari had pace in Mexico. Better hope they did not develop too much pace and start contesting max for 1st places. Hopium mandates they need to have exacly enough pace to squeeze in between Max and Mclaren.

[Badger]

Piastri is out of the title race IMO. He's slumped and there's no sign of a revival. If max drives like he usually does and the car is competitive with McLaren at the remaining races (yes, a big if) then he can push Norris close. It's possible that with ramping pressure Norris won't handle that well. We shouldn't make a definitive statement either way about whether he's completely overcome his tendancies. 4 wins in a row with a competitive car is not out of the ordinary for Max (see 2021, 2022) even when things are tight.

We’re returning to more traditional circuits where Piastri could fare better. It’s difficult to be miles off in Brazil. Before Mexico I gave Norris a 50% chance of taking it, now that’s closer to 70% IMO. For Max the only chance is that Piastri continues to slump and that Norris has a DNF.

[venkyhere]

I think (don't hate me for this) that in this thread there is too much hopium. Max needs 9 points per race on BOTH McLarens. Which can't happen unless both of them DNF one race each, even if Max wins every single race and sprint from now on. That final VSC denied him 3 points (which is 1/12th of the deficit, around 8%) and that itself can make Max lose by 2-3 points, even if the previous sentence, even if highly improbably, happens.
So I think we should stop 'clinging on' to something that has something like 1/1000 probability.

[AR3-GP]

I think (don't hate me for this) that in this thread there is too much hopium. Max needs 9 points per race on BOTH McLarens. Which can't happen unless both of them DNF one race each, even if Max wins every single race and sprint from now on. That final VSC denied him 3 points (which is 1/12th of the deficit, around 8%) and that itself can make Max lose by 2-3 points, even if the previous sentence, even if highly improbably, happens.
So I think we should stop 'clinging on' to something that has something like 1/1000 probability.

I think you're thinking about it in the wrong way. The championship is only won based on the points total after Abu Dhabi. So much can happen between now and then. It's not about hope. It's a fact that he's only 36 points away and so much can happen as we know from the history of this sport.

[venkyhere]

I think (don't hate me for this) that in this thread there is too much hopium. Max needs 9 points per race on BOTH McLarens. Which can't happen unless both of them DNF one race each, even if Max wins every single race and sprint from now on. That final VSC denied him 3 points (which is 1/12th of the deficit, around 8%) and that itself can make Max lose by 2-3 points, even if the previous sentence, even if highly improbably, happens.
So I think we should stop 'clinging on' to something that has something like 1/1000 probability.

I think you're thinking about it in the wrong way. The championship is only won based on the points total after Abu Dhabi. So much can happen between now and then. It's not about hope. It's a fact that he's only 36 points away and so much can happen as we know from the history of this sport.

'so much can happen' relies too much on two DNFs , or Leclerc/Russel consistently coming P2. Even if we assume Max will pull off 4+2 P1s.

[AR3-GP]

I think (don't hate me for this) that in this thread there is too much hopium. Max needs 9 points per race on BOTH McLarens. Which can't happen unless both of them DNF one race each, even if Max wins every single race and sprint from now on. That final VSC denied him 3 points (which is 1/12th of the deficit, around 8%) and that itself can make Max lose by 2-3 points, even if the previous sentence, even if highly improbably, happens.
So I think we should stop 'clinging on' to something that has something like 1/1000 probability.

I think you're thinking about it in the wrong way. The championship is only won based on the points total after Abu Dhabi. So much can happen between now and then. It's not about hope. It's a fact that he's only 36 points away and so much can happen as we know from the history of this sport.

'so much can happen' relies too much on two DNFs , or Leclerc/Russel consistently coming P2. Even if we assume Max will pull off 4+2 P1s.

I'm not relying on anything or making any predictions. I'm just pointing out that assuming the remaining 4 races will be straightforward is just as big of an assumption as assuming chaos. What we've seen is that Max is very good at surviving chaos. For the Mclaren drivers, I wouldn't say the same. It could be wet in Brazil. There could be Mercedes in Qatar and Las Vegas. I think Verstappen has better chances navigating this than the Mclaren drivers.

M5X is not a recipe without ingredients. They are there. Mclaren will not have it easy.

[Paa]

Of course, it is not over until it's over and anything can happen.
We just need to be realistic on how unlikely it is.