2026 Oracle Red Bull Racing F1 Team

[SoulPancake13]

Max was ~.15 off of Piastri in the entirety of the run (from the lap times I charted). Given the Red Bull looks still a bit basic, I think they will be right there in race pace with McLaren

[AR3-GP]

I've seen nothing that makes me doubt McLaren is right up there. They've sandbagged more than the others up until this point, but every time they push the lap times come easy as you saw in the quali sims today.

Then I would put Red Bull 3-4 tenths back without taking into account Merc PU sandbagging. Could easily be 6+ tenths to pole in Melbourne.

The average gap today across the race stints was 2 tenths to Piastri, and that was all in the middle sector. I think the car is heavier (middle sector is weight sensitive) and lacking a bit of load.

Norris said this to explain their tire degradation:

"Things worked better, and then we could drive quicker. At the minute, we're a little bit off. So to match the race pace of some of the others, we have to push a bit more, and then we have more degradation.

"Not entirely, but I'm sure there are some things. I know there are some things that were our strengths last year that will continue to be our strengths this season. But there's a lot of work just to get the balance in a good window.

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/land ... /10798914/

[Cassius]

I've seen nothing that makes me doubt McLaren is right up there. They've sandbagged more than the others up until this point, but every time they push the lap times come easy as you saw in the quali sims today.

Then I would put Red Bull 3-4 tenths back without taking into account Merc PU sandbagging. Could easily be 6+ tenths to pole in Melbourne.

The average gap today across the race stints was 2 tenths to Piastri, and that was all in the middle sector. I think the car is heavier (middle sector is weight sensitive) and lacking a bit of load.

I don't know what numbers you were looking at, but it was more like 0.7s during the hard stints decreasing to 0.3 at the end due to worse deg for Piastri.
And knowing Piastri is worse on deg, Norris will be even more ahead. In short, the gap is considerable to the 3rd fastest team.

Of course we don't know deployment modes and fuel (although there is not much leeway to be heavier on a full race sim) but it did not look great.

[pantherxxx]

Verstappen already had 344 Km/h top speed at the first day of testing. And now it's not even 320 km/h. Like James Vowles said, Red Bull turned down the engine massively. I think they're hiding their pace intentionally. Despite that only 3 tenths slower than Piastri over a race stint, and slowing significantly less degradation, that's good.

[kediown]

Verstappen already had 344 Km/h top speed at the first day of testing. And now it's not even 320 km/h. Like James Vowles said, Red Bull turned down the engine massively. I think they're hiding their pace intentionally. Despite that only 3 tenths slower than Piastri over a race stint, and slowing significantly less degradation, that's good.

Not even in top 10 topspeeds today. I agree the engine is on lower mode, whether it's for sandbagging or reliability no idea

[Badger]

Then I would put Red Bull 3-4 tenths back without taking into account Merc PU sandbagging. Could easily be 6+ tenths to pole in Melbourne.

The average gap today across the race stints was 2 tenths to Piastri, and that was all in the middle sector. I think the car is heavier (middle sector is weight sensitive) and lacking a bit of load.

Norris said this.

"Things worked better, and then we could drive quicker. At the minute, we're a little bit off. So to match the race pace of some of the others, we have to push a bit more, and then we have more degradation.

"Not entirely, but I'm sure there are some things. I know there are some things that were our strengths last year that will continue to be our strengths this season. But there's a lot of work just to get the balance in a good window.

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/land ... /10798914/

I think Mclaren is trailing the leaders, not with them. Mclaren used more power in their qualy sim. Mercedes did 40.299 in the middle sector. Mclaren was 4 tenths back.

You keep posting quotes as if they mean anything, only from people who have a track record for being honest (i.e. Max). Lando is notorious for downplaying his car because he doesn't like the pressure of being favourite.

Just different deployment strategies on their fastest laps. McLaren is deploying down the main straight and Merc is deploying in T12.

[Cassius]

Verstappen already had 344 Km/h top speed at the first day of testing. And now it's not even 320 km/h. Like James Vowles said, Red Bull turned down the engine massively. I think they're hiding their pace intentionally. Despite that only 3 tenths slower than Piastri over a race stint, and slowing significantly less degradation, that's good.

The 344 was with tail wind and a deployment map focused on the first straight. So I am not sharing your optimism.
Better deg than McL on the other hand is quite a surprise, although it is not Piastri's strength.

[Badger]

Then I would put Red Bull 3-4 tenths back without taking into account Merc PU sandbagging. Could easily be 6+ tenths to pole in Melbourne.

The average gap today across the race stints was 2 tenths to Piastri, and that was all in the middle sector. I think the car is heavier (middle sector is weight sensitive) and lacking a bit of load.

I don't know what numbers you were looking at, but it was more like 0.7s during the hard stints decreasing to 0.3 at the end due to worse deg for Piastri.
And knowing Piastri is worse on deg, Norris will be even more ahead. In short, the gap is considerable to the 3rd fastest team.

Of course we don't know deployment modes and fuel (although there is not much leeway to be heavier on a full race sim) but it did not look great.

The only numbers there are, the lap times.

You guys sit and watch the stints live and compare lap times between two cars that are off-set by 7-8 laps. Of course Piastri looks faster when he's chasing on fresher tyres, but it's only when you look at the averages for the whole stint that you see the true picture. And the true picture is that Piastri was around two tenths per lap faster for the whole sim.

Btw, Max's deg wasn't too rosy either, his tyres fell off completely on the final stint, more than Piastri's.

[McG]

The average gap today across the race stints was 2 tenths to Piastri, and that was all in the middle sector. I think the car is heavier (middle sector is weight sensitive) and lacking a bit of load.

Norris said this.

"Things worked better, and then we could drive quicker. At the minute, we're a little bit off. So to match the race pace of some of the others, we have to push a bit more, and then we have more degradation.

"Not entirely, but I'm sure there are some things. I know there are some things that were our strengths last year that will continue to be our strengths this season. But there's a lot of work just to get the balance in a good window.

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/land ... /10798914/

I think Mclaren is trailing the leaders, not with them. Mclaren used more power in their qualy sim. Mercedes did 40.299 in the middle sector. Mclaren was 4 tenths back.

You keep posting quotes as if they mean anything, only from people who have a track record for being honest (i.e. Max). Lando is notorious for downplaying his car because he doesn't like the pressure of being favourite.

Just different deployment strategies on their fastest laps. McLaren is deploying down the main straight and Merc is deploying in T12.

Hilarious.

[f1isgood]

Verstappen already had 344 Km/h top speed at the first day of testing. And now it's not even 320 km/h. Like James Vowles said, Red Bull turned down the engine massively. I think they're hiding their pace intentionally. Despite that only 3 tenths slower than Piastri over a race stint, and slowing significantly less degradation, that's good.

The 344 was with tail wind and a deployment map focused on the first straight. So I am not sharing your optimism.
Better deg than McL on the other hand is quite a surprise, although it is not Piastri's strength.

Regarding Piastri, it's either he took a step up last year with tire management (the pace differences between him and Norris were always very small but Norris still slightly quicker) or the McLaren car was super good. There's no serious reason to believe Norris will be any quicker than a tenth than Piastri.

[AR3-GP]

Regarding Piastri, it's either he took a step up last year with tire management (the pace differences between him and Norris were always very small but Norris still slightly quicker) or the McLaren car was super good. There's no serious reason to believe Norris will be any quicker than a tenth than Piastri.

The Mclaren car was that good last year. I think these regulations are more degradation limited and Mclaren does not have a car like the MCL39. We are heading back to 2023-2024 territory on long runs with NOR vs PIA. It can be up to 30 seconds between them in races.

[Cassius]

The average gap today across the race stints was 2 tenths to Piastri, and that was all in the middle sector. I think the car is heavier (middle sector is weight sensitive) and lacking a bit of load.

I don't know what numbers you were looking at, but it was more like 0.7s during the hard stints decreasing to 0.3 at the end due to worse deg for Piastri.
And knowing Piastri is worse on deg, Norris will be even more ahead. In short, the gap is considerable to the 3rd fastest team.

Of course we don't know deployment modes and fuel (although there is not much leeway to be heavier on a full race sim) but it did not look great.

The only numbers there are, the lap times.

You guys sit and watch the stints live and compare lap times between two cars that are off-set by 7-8 laps. Of course Piastri looks faster when he's chasing on fresher tyres, but it's only when you look at the averages for the whole stint that you see the true picture. And the true picture is that Piastri was around two tenths per lap faster for the whole sim.

Btw, Max's deg wasn't too rosy either, his tyres fell off completely on the final stint, more than Piastri's.

Of course I am correcting for offset when watching live. The hard stints were 0.5s slower at equal tyre age, the first stint equal, but Piastri was in Max' dirty air, so I would say he was a few tenths up. On average it is more than 0.2s and Norris is even better.

[AR3-GP]

You keep posting quotes as if they mean anything, only from people who have a track record for being honest (i.e. Max). Lando is notorious for downplaying his car because he doesn't like the pressure of being favourite.

At some point everyone can't be a liar. Lando's lying about Mclaren. Mekies is lying about others being "well ahead". Max is lying about Merc PU. Come on...

Car lacks downforce, is overweight, and will have a PU deficit to Mercedes.

[Paa]

Verstappen already had 344 Km/h top speed at the first day of testing. And now it's not even 320 km/h. Like James Vowles said, Red Bull turned down the engine massively. I think they're hiding their pace intentionally. Despite that only 3 tenths slower than Piastri over a race stint, and slowing significantly less degradation, that's good.

The 344 was with tail wind and a deployment map focused on the first straight. So I am not sharing your optimism.
Better deg than McL on the other hand is quite a surprise, although it is not Piastri's strength.

Exactly. From this year it is just not enough to simply look at top speed and decide about engine level.
Red Bull engine might have been turned down, but we will need much more comprehensive analysis to be confident about that. What part and for how long did they clip, lico or deploy etc.

[Wouter]

I hope that last start was Max's mistake and not engine & software related

.
That was no mistke. De both Ferrari PU's, Lewis and Ocon, were quicker because they have a smaller turbo.

.
Kimi with Merc PU overtook him at the start too

.
Kimi started from "pole". Lewis and Ocon came from behind and were quicker.

Edit; Max from "pole", Kimi second.