2018 Hungarian Grand Prix - Hungaroring, 27-29 July

[Bill_Kar]

We'll have to take as a constant that now Ferrari has the best PU;that's what I hear from pretty much everyone.

This would break a lot of hearts and leave them utterly disappointed. Those who kept arguing all these years that, Mercedes was winning ONLY because of having strong PU and their chassis was/is not good enough!

That would consist a great myth in 2014 or 2015, but nowadays? Probably not.
It was and still is a beauty of a car aerodynamically.

[GrandAxe]

Each race this season is going to be difficult to predict. Its now more of an exciting lottery because of the mix of circumstances; any of the top six (WDC) drivers could take this race.

Ferrari now has the strongest engine by the same sort of margin that Mercedes did a couple of years ago. They now regularly smash the straights around 0.5 sec to 0.8 sec faster than Honda, Renault and Merc powered teams, yet they aren't leading either the constructors or drivers championships.

This means that the real differentiator this season has been, not the car, but the driver. Of course, this would not work in all races, but it seems to have weighted factors enough that the betting outcome has been skewed, with the less powerful car and one of its drivers leading both championships. Even between team mates there are quite large variations (e.g. Hulkenberg / Sainz, Alonso / Vandoorne, Lewis / Bottas etc.).

WDC
1 Lewis Hamilton GBR MERCEDES 188
2 Sebastian Vettel GER FERRARI 171
3 Kimi Räikkönen FIN FERRARI 131
4 Valtteri Bottas FIN MERCEDES 122
5 Daniel Ricciardo AUS RED BULL RACING TAG HEUER 106
6 Max Verstappen NED RED BULL RACING TAG HEUER 105
7 Nico Hulkenberg GER RENAULT 52

WCC
1 MERCEDES 310
2 FERRARI 302
3 RED BULL RACING TAG HEUER 211
4 RENAULT 80

[Spoutnik]

We'll have to take as a constant that now Ferrari has the best PU;that's what I hear from pretty much everyone.

This would break a lot of hearts and leave them utterly disappointed. Those who kept arguing all these years that, Mercedes was winning ONLY because of having strong PU and their chassis was/is not good enough!

That would consist a great myth in 2014 or 2015, but nowadays? Probably not.
It was and still is a beauty of a car aerodynamically.

The more the gap between their engine and the others reduced the more they were focusing on aero.
The reality is that having the best PU makes everything looks good PU advantage means power advantage = speed, acceleration also allows running more DF - makes chassis and aero look good.

It also means a better MGU-K power deployment = faster and smoother power delivery helps tyre life in acceleration situations, increases acceleration, makes car more drivable in wet conditions = makes chassis and aero look good.
And finally MGU-K harvesting = better brake stability - makes chassis and aero look good.

[zibby43]

I find it a little bit odd.

Same. But this excerpt matches my initial pecking order thoughts.

Ferrari had their big power boost available in Austria but Merc's chassis/aero upgrade package played well there.

I am very, very intrigued by how the W09 is going to perform in Hungary.

Sure Austria was the first test and W09 was good, but was it good enough?
We'll have to take as a constant that now Ferrari has the best PU;that's what I hear from pretty much everyone.
But did Merc reach the cut off point? Is it better than Ferrari in slow-mediumish corners? You would figure that a stronger PU MAY push you back in terms of traction, but Ferrari demonstrated that it's sweet out of low speed acceleration.
Then there is the weather which should it be hot it will hinder their performance.
Moreover, I got the feeling that new asphalt will boost Mercedes.

There are a lot of contradicting forces here so the balance is pretty much unknown. But I don't think that W09 is in a position to challenge Ferrari yet. I still think that aerodynamically (that is high speed corners) they are still the best option, but traction-wise? Nah.
I would love to hear your opinion about the strong points of the two cars.

I think you hit the nail on the head with several of your points. Like you said, the performance is so close now that there are several external variables in play that can determine the outcome of a weekend; ambient temperatures and track surface are great examples. Both of these variables have a significant impact on tire performance, which is oftentimes the differentiator between the closely matched Mercs and Ferraris.

In qualifying trim, the Ferrari PU is the class of the field right now. It's very intriguing to me that the recent PU gain is non-ICE related.

Ferrari's acceleration out of medium-speed corners is other-worldly right now. Merc used to have an advantage there.

So, while Merc has given up a bit of their advantage in those types of corners, they have clawed back in the slower, more technical corners. Bottas was absolutely mighty in the final sector in Germany. I would've been fascinated to see how good Lewis was in that section during Q3, particularly given his braking prowess.

I'm going to be a bit surprised if we don't see at least a few minor updates on the W09 in Hungary. They should be able to continue to optimize the car around the Austria update now that they have been able to accumulate data over the past several weeks.

A lot of teams have been playing with their front wings this year but Merc hasn't done a ton in this area. Can they find a way to improve the FW and subsequently the flow toward the rear of the car? Can't remember the last time Merc brought a major floor update, either. Bargeboards and floors are ripe areas for development this year.

[Wynters]

Midfield battle is still nice and tight. I'm really looking forward to seeing whether Haas and Sauber can carry on their recent good form or will Renault and Force India reassert themselves. Renault, in particular, could perform very well here.

[Mansell89]

Red Bull must have a huge chance this week. Twisty track and high downforce. Possible rain wouldn't worry them either. Q3 should be ferocious! Tough track for overtakes.

[Fulcrum]

Hamilton and Vettel to have a tangle into Turn 1; Bottas, Raikkonen and the Red Bulls fight for the win.

[strad]

This track has such limited passing opportunities that I think qualifying will be as important as Monaco.

[cooken]

And nowhere practical to put a silly third durrrssss zone.

[PlatinumZealot]

Midfield battle is still nice and tight. I'm really looking forward to seeing whether Haas and Sauber can carry on their recent good form or will Renault and Force India reassert themselves. Renault, in particular, could perform very well here.

Caught unnoticed at the start of the season it now looks the Sauber chassis had a good base design that only needed more development. I expect their form to continue but mind you, Force india chassis is coming on strong too.

[BwajSF]

And nowhere practical to put a silly third durrrssss zone.

There is stilll a possible place to put between end of turn 2 to start of Turn 4... its the flat out section on the track.. but dont see it aiding overtaking at all..

[BwajSF]

Midfield battle is still nice and tight. I'm really looking forward to seeing whether Haas and Sauber can carry on their recent good form or will Renault and Force India reassert themselves. Renault, in particular, could perform very well here.

Caught unnoticed at the start of the season it now looks the Sauber chassis had a good base design that only needed more development. I expect their form to continue but mind you, Force india chassis is coming on strong too.

Yeah but they are running into financial crisis...now almost heading into administration. Looks like it will be Force Stroll Soon..

[Vasconia]

This track has such limited passing opportunities that I think qualifying will be as important as Monaco.

It has always been difficult to overtake here, but with those cars even more. Undercut/overcut may be the only option for the one who is not on pole.

[digitalrurouni]

https://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2018/07/ ... he-season/

Sums up very nicely why I think Hamilton is gonna be 'mediocre' this weekend.

[search]

any idea if Red Bull will get the fuel update this weekend which was announced for Hungary earlier this year?