bluechris wrote: ↑15 Feb 2026, 22:14
And yet we still discussing it and we all know that this will pass for 2026 as always for a specific brand.
Judging from what we hear, I suspect Merc get slightly better treatment because they engage with the FIA.
Ferrari's trick with the fuel sensor required an FIA investigation. Ferrari never went to the FIA and told them what they were doing in advance. Similarly, various tightening of the rules around plank skid blocks and the bib that some teams were using a few years back. In contrast, Merc engaged with the FIA on DAS which is why they got a years use out of it before the ban. Perhaps this is why Mercedes seem to get better treatment, as they don't do things in secret, but engage the FIA enough that they get some leeway?
It appears Merc has, to some extent, engaged with the FIA on the compression ratio topic. At least enough to update the testing rule in October. We don't know how much audit trail there is between the FIA and Mercedes on the CR subject. There could be loads, which would make it quite hard for the FIA to immediately ban it. While Mercedes have said they won't take matters to court, would McLaren, Alpine and Williams be so forgiving if they suddenly ended up with an uncompetitive engine after, potentially, some form of agreement with the FIA that the engine is legal? They are all businesses with sponsor commitments so not being able to race, or being totally uncompetitive, would be a huge impact.
As mentioned already on the thread, the FIA aren't great at being consistent on rules. They weren't going to tighten up on flexiwings until the 2026 regulations, then suddenly they changed their view at the beginning of 2025. Even then they gave the teams nearly 6-months before the new tests were introduced. And that's a front wing which teams evolve during the year anyway.
In Mercedes case, they will already have built multiple race and spare engines across four teams. It''s not like they can just construct something new in two weeks before homologation, or three weeks before the first race. It would be simply impossible to build new components for 16 or so engines in this time.
People might not like this, but I don't see Mercedes engines being banned and unless what they are doing is somehow reversible (unlikely) they cannot make their engines legal in only three weeks. If Merc got clarification from the FIA, and perhaps even had some dialogue around what they were intending to build that resulted in the October test language being updated, it will be hard for the FIA to suddenly change their position and ban them.
Again, people might not like this, but it's really on the FIA for allowing the test language to be set to ambient in October. The implications of doing so are obvious. Which therefore makes it hard for the FIA to ban Mercedes suddenly.
My bet would be on a 2027 rule change. Let's face it, if the total mess of racing we're likely to see transpires, there will be plenty of rule changes into 2027 anyway.