Silly Season 2016/2017

[Vasconia]

I have said before that a Perez-Sainz line up would be great, and it would be a truly boost for the team. It would be sad if they choose Nasr only for the Braziian money because he is not bad driver but I see nothing special in this guy.

As far as I see things Perez and Sainz are both confirmed to stay where they are. Renault don't really need Nasr's money, but will probably choose an experienced driver to pair with Ocon. Other than that it's purely guesswork.

You´re right but RB can decided to let Sainz leave if Renault offers a good price for their PU....we will see.

Sainz is showing a great public loyalty to RB which is an inteligent attitude but I hope he is smart enough to realize that RB´s doors are closed for him.

[edu2703]

You can not decide the driver in the 'heat of the moment'. You need to analyze the performance of all the potential drivers. I think Renault has better tools to analyze each driver than us.

When the candidates are of different teams, the comparison of performance between them is difficult. You would have to define: For a driver who drives a Manor, for a driver who drives a Sauber and for a driver who drives a Force India, which would be the minimum that each one would have to do to prove he has something special?

I think most of us here do a very superficial analysis of the performances of some drivers. Some do not take into account various parameters that could show the driver has something special because they don't have access to such data or don't think these parameters are important. The only thing that counts is the final result.

Hence the need to analyze well the potential pilots to avoid certain risks choosing a driver thinking he's a good driver, but he is not, or discard a driver thinking he has nothing special and in the future shows that he really is a good driver and you see that you lost a great opportunity.

I just hope that Renault analyze the performances of all their candidates for a seat in a fair and impartial manner and I also hope the final decision not be influenced by pressure from fans, supporters or sponsors. I also want Esteban Ocon has his performance also analyzed as well as the other candidates, including his performance driving the Manor car.

I watch F1 for over 25 years. I have lost count how many talented drivers who haven't had chances in big teams because of superficial analyzes of their peformances.

[Vasconia]

You can not decide the driver in the 'heat of the moment'. You need to analyze the performance of all the potential drivers. I think Renault has better tools to analyze each driver than us.

.

Based on this Steven should close this forum. We all know this, but we try to analize and give our opinion based on your limited amount of information and knowledge.

I hope that Renault will enlight us soon, I hope they can have an exciting line-up for nex season.

What about Allison? do you think that he will finally rejoin Renault? it would be a boost for the team.

[ChrisDanger]

I think most of us here do a very superficial analysis of the performances of some drivers. Some do not take into account various parameters that could show the driver has something special because they don't have access to such data or don't think these parameters are important. The only thing that counts is the final result.

Hence the need to analyze well the potential pilots to avoid certain risks choosing a driver thinking he's a good driver, but he is not, or discard a driver thinking he has nothing special and in the future shows that he really is a good driver and you see that you lost a great opportunity.

I base my "predictions" on what the paddock is saying as well as other gossip or information totally unrelated to driver performance. For example Ted Kravitz interviewed Renault's Fred Vassuer a few races ago, and mentioned Ocon in Renault next year. Reading Vassuer's reaction for me was confirmation that he will be there, although I'm not an infallible expert on unspoken communication. Then there's the Stroll to Williams situation, where everything just adds up, more than that Stroll is some sort of prodigy or something. Beyond these kinds of things I don't like to guess what's going to happen on the driver market. And that's confirmation of what you're saying, that we aren't really in a position to effectively analyse these things, with a good example being Hulkenberg's lack of promotion to a top team, where I've heard comments that his data doesn't show him in the best light.

[edu2703]

I think most of us here do a very superficial analysis of the performances of some drivers. Some do not take into account various parameters that could show the driver has something special because they don't have access to such data or don't think these parameters are important. The only thing that counts is the final result.

Hence the need to analyze well the potential pilots to avoid certain risks choosing a driver thinking he's a good driver, but he is not, or discard a driver thinking he has nothing special and in the future shows that he really is a good driver and you see that you lost a great opportunity.

I base my "predictions" on what the paddock is saying as well as other gossip or information totally unrelated to driver performance. For example Ted Kravitz interviewed Renault's Fred Vassuer a few races ago, and mentioned Ocon in Renault next year. Reading Vassuer's reaction for me was confirmation that he will be there, although I'm not an infallible expert on unspoken communication. Then there's the Stroll to Williams situation, where everything just adds up, more than that Stroll is some sort of prodigy or something. Beyond these kinds of things I don't like to guess what's going to happen on the driver market. And that's confirmation of what you're saying, that we aren't really in a position to effectively analyse these things, with a good example being Hulkenberg's lack of promotion to a top team, where I've heard comments that his data doesn't show him in the best light.

I really didn't understand much of your comment. You put a lot of information and I didn't understand almost nothing.

About Hulkemberg: I always considered him an average driver, nothing more than that. He did very good races, but in relation to the total number of his races, these good races are not enough to say that he's a talented driver.

About Ocon: I know he's favorite to take one of the seats, there is enormous pressure for him to be a Renault driver in 2017, including pressure of Toto Wolff

I had high expectations about it, but his first three races in F1 were disappointing. Performance far below of his teammate Pascal Werhlein. If he continues being outperformed by his teammate, he can loose the 'favorite' status.

About Stroll: I think he's very overrated and doesn't deserve a seat in F1 based purely on his results and in his lack of experience. But his father is rich.... A person has to be very naive to believe Williams wants Stroll because of his talent.

Believe me. Renault will be very careful in choosing their drivers for 2017. There is no driver who has already guaranteed seat for 2017 and i'm sure that the chosen drivers will be the best possible choices for the team.

And I don't like to evaluate who is favorite based on what a team boss says. As Vasseur talks about Ocon, he talks about Palmer, saying he is in the battle for a seat in 2017 as well as Magnussen. Palmer is virtually ruled out of the battle for seat because of his very bad results, unless he has a huge reaction with six races remaining to the end of the championship. Almost everyone here agrees with that.

[edu2703]

I have said before that a Perez-Sainz line up would be great, and it would be a truly boost for the team. It would be sad if they choose Nasr only for the Braziian money because he is not bad driver but I see nothing special in this guy.

A driver shows that he has something special driving a bad car is a very difficult task even for the most talented drivers.

I will use Alonso as an example. His debut Minardi in 2001 was...normal. He finished the championship behind his teammate Tarso Marques. I repeat: Tarso Marques. Making a superficial analysis of his performance in 2001, I'd say he has nothing special.

So before you want to evaluate the performance of drivers who drive bad cars, always ask a question to yourself: What a driver that I consider 'very talented' would do driving this bad car? He would have much better results than the driver what I consider have nothing special?

I'm not saying your analysis is wrong, but it's always good to be careful for not underrate drivers who drives a bad car.

[Manoah2u]

I think most of us here do a very superficial analysis of the performances of some drivers. Some do not take into account various parameters that could show the driver has something special because they don't have access to such data or don't think these parameters are important. The only thing that counts is the final result.

Hence the need to analyze well the potential pilots to avoid certain risks choosing a driver thinking he's a good driver, but he is not, or discard a driver thinking he has nothing special and in the future shows that he really is a good driver and you see that you lost a great opportunity.

I base my "predictions" on what the paddock is saying as well as other gossip or information totally unrelated to driver performance. For example Ted Kravitz interviewed Renault's Fred Vassuer a few races ago, and mentioned Ocon in Renault next year. Reading Vassuer's reaction for me was confirmation that he will be there, although I'm not an infallible expert on unspoken communication. Then there's the Stroll to Williams situation, where everything just adds up, more than that Stroll is some sort of prodigy or something. Beyond these kinds of things I don't like to guess what's going to happen on the driver market. And that's confirmation of what you're saying, that we aren't really in a position to effectively analyse these things, with a good example being Hulkenberg's lack of promotion to a top team, where I've heard comments that his data doesn't show him in the best light.

I really didn't understand much of your comment. You put a lot of information and I didn't understand almost nothing.

About Hulkemberg: I always considered him an average driver, nothing more than that. He did very good races, but in relation to the total number of his races, these good races are not enough to say that he's a talented driver.

About Ocon: I know he's favorite to take one of the seats, there is enormous pressure for him to be a Renault driver in 2017, including pressure of Toto Wolff

I had high expectations about it, but his first three races in F1 were disappointing. Performance far below of his teammate Pascal Werhlein. If he continues being outperformed by his teammate, he can loose the 'favorite' status.

About Stroll: I think he's very overrated and doesn't deserve a seat in F1 based purely on his results and in his lack of experience. But his father is rich.... A person has to be very naive to believe Williams wants Stroll because of his talent.

Believe me. Renault will be very careful in choosing their drivers for 2017. There is no driver who has already guaranteed seat for 2017 and i'm sure that the chosen drivers will be the best possible choices for the team.

And I don't like to evaluate who is favorite based on what a team boss says. As Vasseur talks about Ocon, he talks about Palmer, saying he is in the battle for a seat in 2017 as well as Magnussen. Palmer is virtually ruled out of the battle for seat because of his very bad results, unless he has a huge reaction with six races remaining to the end of the championship. Almost everyone here agrees with that.

i dont see anything difficult to understand with his comment.

Who's Hulkemberg? or is it Hulkenberg, that you're talking about?
Ocon has been explained already that his inability to perform was due to his car, which was not working properly,
and pitstops going bad, in contrast to Wehrlein where it all went well. so there is no comparison there.

some facts about stroll

Racing career summary
Races entered 101
Wins 24
Podiums 46
Pole positions 20
Fastest laps 19
Race win percentage 23.8%
Podium percentage 45.5%

Don't get me wrong, a little inquiry about his career doesnt show anything overly special or promising,
but at the same time, he's 'part' of the same 'group' of 'talents' that make up current gp/formula classes
that are stepping stones towards F1; namely
Nyck de Vries, Esteban Ocon (already in f1), Charles Leclerc, Raffaelle Marciello, Pierre Gasly, etc.

But the question may be more or less whether or not the 'pack' we're dealing with nowadays (outside F1)
simply isnt' all that special at all. Verstappen is a absolute talent, but one also might wonder how 'talented'
the rest of the drivers nowadays are.

let's put it like this;

if the entire gp2, gp3 and f3 field nowadays are at best 'mediocre' - caused by the 'demand' to bring huge sponsor
deals and money for whatever seat, then there's still going to be a champion and runner up. the lessest 'mediocre'
driver thus has won.

you can stat 'gp2 champion!' 'wins!' 'look at the money he brings!', but if the field / generation is made up almost
entirely of the product of years of putting finances and money above everything else, then the real talents are simply
not out there enough. and then you'll reach a point where these 'mediocre' drivers start entering high classes like f1.

its not new neccesarily, but i have some feeling like it's starting to grow out of proportions. my 2 cents.

[edu2703]

Many people eludes seeing a young driver winning races and championships in the jr. categories without first analyzing the circumstances that enable these achievements.

For example, when Jolyon Palmer won the GP2 championship in 2014, many people called him 'talented'. I never called him 'talented', even winning the GP2 championship. That's because I analyzed the circumstances of his achievement: Won in his fourth year in GP2 after three seasons being outperformed by his teammates. He had the best car and an inexperienced and average teammate. For me, his current performance in F1 was expected.

Another thing people delude themselves: 'In jr. categories, the cars of all teams have the same performance and the talent of each driver sets the results'. In any jr. category always will have a dominant team, not because it has the best drivers, but because it has a car with better performance than the other teams. Externally, all cars are the same, but some parts of the engine can be changed to increase the engine power, furthermore the setup of the car also improve the performance of the car. A team that has the best setups for the car will dominate the category.

PREMA Powerteam driver Lance Stroll, after a mediocre year in 2015, crashes, stupid driving mistakes and being banned from a race to be considered 'very dangerous', is now leading the European F3 Championship. The PREMA Powerteam dominates the European F3 since it was rebuilt in 2012. It's evident the team has the best car among all teams. His three teammates are in 2nd, 3rd and 9th in the championship.

It's an exaggeration to think that Lance Stroll is a very talented driver. He starts on pole and won the race. When he doesn't starts on pole, he doesn't win the race. This season, he only won one race without starting on pole. This shows how much people delude easy...

[ChrisDanger]

Yes, I've heard all these things about Stroll. He has lots of money, and apart from this cash he would bring to a team, he also buys track time, which gives him an advantage. I for one never said he was more talented that other rookies, and I'm not sure that's the general consensus anyway.

[Vasconia]

I have said before that a Perez-Sainz line up would be great, and it would be a truly boost for the team. It would be sad if they choose Nasr only for the Braziian money because he is not bad driver but I see nothing special in this guy.

A driver shows that he has something special driving a bad car is a very difficult task even for the most talented drivers.

I will use Alonso as an example. His debut Minardi in 2001 was...normal. He finished the championship behind his teammate Tarso Marques. I repeat: Tarso Marques. Making a superficial analysis of his performance in 2001, I'd say he has nothing special.

So before you want to evaluate the performance of drivers who drive bad cars, always ask a question to yourself: What a driver that I consider 'very talented' would do driving this bad car? He would have much better results than the driver what I consider have nothing special?

I'm not saying your analysis is wrong, but it's always good to be careful for not underrate drivers who drives a bad car.

I can see your point. I must admit that my analysis is a little bit shallow due to the lack of additional information. My impression is that Nasr is not such a great driver but as you have said some people need a longer period of adaption to show their true potential. Not everybody can debut with a McLaren like Hamiton did, for example...

[Manoah2u]

Well, it's not all about having the car. Hamilton debuted in a great car, sure. But he immediately held his ground against Alonso, and ended up with same points scoring, actually in front of Fernando, just 1 point shy [or 2 points to bag it] from Kimi who won the WDC that year (2007). The next year, he hauled in that WDC.

As good as the car is, to actually be immediately on par with a experienced world champion on a high is a different story alltogether; talk about pressure!

VanDoorne 'debut' next year will be interesting, but there are some things to concider before comparing him to Hamilton through Alonso next year, as i no doubt already see
people doing.

The Mclaren-Honda probably won't by far be as 'good' a car as the 2007 (& 08) Mclaren was, or let's just say - I still dont think McHonda will do a Mercedes next year.
in '07, the competition was higher for the WDC as the Ferrari was amazing too (hence why Kimi won the WDC, and Massa was really close too [also '08].
Alonso just came from Renault, hungry for another title.

Switch to 2017.

Vandoorne vs Alonso, will be hard to judge. Is Alonso still really good? I think so, but are the chances high that he's fading from that 'high' he was on before? I assume so.
After all, he went to Ferrari and despite doing some stellar drives there, was completely gutted never to get that WDC and got frustrated with them. Then moved towards
Mclaren, obviously frustrated over the 'lost' (titleless) years expecting much more there. He finds himself at Mclaren who has it's worst time ever with a lousy worthless
Honda engine that only recently is starting to get better. Button held his ground great against Alonso, but does that speak in favour of Button, or negatively about Alonso,
knowing Button was around for years already there so rather 'at home', and Alonso coming in in a mental slump. He might have been excited to start with Mclaren - i actually
believe he was, but he must have gotten a really cold shower when it all started.
Meanwhile, Alonso had a hefty and still odd accident during testing slamming suddenly in a wall, of which he supposedly had memory loss and was airlifted away.
He then early this year had an enormeous crash with Guiterrez and was turned and twisted into the barriers extremely but extremely hard; an opportunity for Stoffel to take
the wheel from him once. Also, Alonso has not gotten younger through the years so age will play a part at a certain point [same to Button his teammate].

Leading to the conclusion that Alonso is a big question mark to compare to unless he has similar material vs a topdriver like Hamilton, Vettel, Raikkonen.

One thing i am absolutely sure of though;

If Mclaren-Honda is not producing a guaranteed race winning car, that might be WDC potential or atleast able to develop into one next year, then Alonso will undoubtedly leave
Mclaren before the season is over and either retire from F1 alltogether or if Mercedes has a spot if Nico and Lewis bash their brains out on track again, move to Merc.

Frankly, i don't think Macca will reach that goal next year.

So we will see midseason 2017 i think Button - Vandoorne.

thats what i think.

[Vasconia]

Well, it's not all about having the car. Hamilton debuted in a great car, sure. But he immediately held his ground against Alonso, and ended up with same points scoring, actually in front of Fernando, just 1 point shy [or 2 points to bag it] from Kimi who won the WDC that year (2007). The next year, he hauled in that WDC.

.

Indeed, he delivered when the pressure was great and his teanmate was Alonso. I wanted to say that its easier to show your talent if you are driving in such a good car. Pressure can be high but life is easier when you can push.

About Alonso... well, he will reach the age of 36. He still can be great but its obvious that the "not so good" days will become more usual. It happened with Schumacher so I guess it will happen with Alonso. 2017 could the "2006" for Alonso, being fast but with worse days too.

[Manoah2u]

There might be more or less a crossroad/equilibrium when a very talented yet not experienced driver reaches a point where his age might cause his performance to (naturally) lessen,
but that the gained experience will balance it out. At a certain point though, a driver will reach the point where the experience reaches a level where it can't 'improve' or 'benefit' more
of 'another year' of experience. In extreme; somebody working 40 years cutting keys won't benefit vastly more [if at all] from reaching 41 years of cutting keys. obviously comparing
41 years of cutting keys to 5 year of cutting keys does make a vast difference.

point is, there will be a point where experience stops 'helping more' and when age really becomes something that will hamper being as competitive as one was in their early 20s,
especially when driving several years for the same team and crew.

Massa knows he won't have much 'use' for himself personally in staying in F1 indefinately like Barrichello did. Button stepped aside too on the right time. There's a risk of hanging
about too long. I sincerely hope Alonso gets another chance to prove his worth, i just dont see it happening anymore unfortunately.

The future imho is with Verstappen, Ricciardo, Sainz, etc. Though i must say none of them give me that 'feeling' that drivers like Alonso gave me throughout the years.
Then again, how would we have looked at Alonso if Schumacher had stopped years before and they never competed?

I just really hope to see some good battles with comparable material between the 'older' generation [ Alonso, Hamilton, Vettel, Raikkonen, Rosberg ] vs the new generation
[ Verstappen, Ricciardo, Sainz, Wehrlein, etc ].

[iotar__]

One thing i am absolutely sure of though; If Mclaren-Honda is not producing a guaranteed race winning car, that might be WDC potential or atleast able to develop into one next year, then Alonso will undoubtedly leave Mclaren before the season is over and either retire from F1 alltogether or if Mercedes has a spot if Nico and Lewis bash their brains out on track again, move to Merc.

You are absolutely sure that Alonso either retries mid-season in '17 or moves to Merc ? Let's ignore the latter but:
- Even with undeserved Ecclestone riches McLaren still need results and money, putting unprepared driver half way through the season would compromise both goals and even if you can argue they might save with a high contract it's still not a good idea (image, WCC points) Why would they agree to that?
- you do not need many races to know if the car is good, tests should be enough so if he retires it should be before or after the season
- why would a driver want to quit F1 and his team mid-season with any car, race winning or not?

Vandoorne vs Alonso, will be hard to judge. Is Alonso still really good? I think so, but are the chances high that he's fading from that 'high' he was on before? I assume so.
Leading to the conclusion that Alonso is a big question mark to compare to unless he has similar material vs a topdriver like Hamilton, Vettel, Raikkonen.

You put a question mark next to Alonso because he's fading and doesn't have a 'top driver' like Raikkonen next to him? The same 37 year old and two years older than FA KR is a top benchmark? The same one who for the last three years at Ferrari including one next to Alonso couldn't put a good (nevermind top) race together but had literally dozens at below basic F1 driver competence? As for Renault:

- My impression was that Perez and Sainz were alternatives. More specifically Perez to Sainz and his sponsors from Movistar (or whatever). Perhaps real, perhaps fake = negotiations. Now that Perez is most likely staying at FI but it's not announced both delays are I think connected
- Pursuing equally chaotic, basic and perhaps slower Sainz when they have Magnussen is interesting. If those 3 and Ocon are their choices it shows that the level of incompetence at Renault is constant and they continue doing their best Toyota impression. Just like Ferrari before this season I hope the car is great and they have no real world excuses.

[edu2703]

Red Bull not interested in Sainz/Renault deal

http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/red-b ... al-829037/