Silly Season 2018/2019

[zgred]

Red Bull Racing confirms Gasly for 2019

Red Bull has confirmed that Pierre Gasly will partner Max Verstappen in its lead Formula 1 team next season, in place of Renault-bound Daniel Ricciardo.

[AJI]

Red Bull Racing confirms Gasly for 2019

Red Bull has confirmed that Pierre Gasly will partner Max Verstappen in its lead Formula 1 team next season, in place of Renault-bound Daniel Ricciardo.

This is going to be interesting. GAS may just upset the apple cart...

I have to say I really like the way RB promote their young drivers. Ferrari and Mercedes should take note.

[Fulcrum]

I don't think Max will be too worried by the prospect of Gasly.

Gasly has been consistent but, if you look at his junior record, he has never dominated any series he has contested; even over short periods of time. Moreover, his Win to Pole ratio (13-16; 0.81) is much lower than that of Verstappen (15-11; 1.36); the odds ratio being 1.68 in Verstappen's favour. Likewise, his podium to race ratio is also far lower, (42-122; 0.34) vs. (24-47; 0.51); an odds ratio of 1.48 in favour of Verstappen.

If you dig a little bit deeper the conclusion becomes more self-evident (imo). Gasly is quick, but Max has the high ground of team knowledge, and is a prodigy to boot. With F1 being the way it is, starting in front is more than half the battle won, and Max will be starting in front of Gasly more often than not.

Gasly will have to mentally toughen up, because he isn't the first driver to drive for Red Bull earlier than anticipated with an excellent pedigree - I'm referring to Daniil Kvyat. Kvyat was undoubtedly quick, but mentally fragile, and Ricciardo, and ultimately Sainz Jr., ended his career.

[johnny vee]

Nice post Fulcrum, thank you for the numbers.

[NathanOlder]

Red Bull Racing confirms Gasly for 2019

Red Bull has confirmed that Pierre Gasly will partner Max Verstappen in its lead Formula 1 team next season, in place of Renault-bound Daniel Ricciardo.

This is going to be interesting. GAS may just upset the apple cart...

I have to say I really like the way RB promote their young drivers. Ferrari and Mercedes should take note.

Its only Max that they promoted out of the ordinary, most drivers promoted to RedBull have been down to their top drivers leaving. Ferrari and Mercedes dont generally suffer from that.

[FrukostScones]

Ferrari: VET/RAI
Mercedes: HAM//BOT
Red Bull: VES/GAS
McLaren: SAI/NOR
Findia: STR/PER
Sauber: ERI/GIO
Toro Rosso: JEV/WEH/BUE/TIC/ROW
Haas: LEC/MAG
Williams: OCO/RUS
Renault: RIC/HUL

GAS to RB a bit boring. a good driver sure but we all know what happened to Kvyat when promoted too early against tough competitor. RAI, MAG or ALO would promise to be so much more fun.

[WaikeCU]

I don't think Max will be too worried by the prospect of Gasly.

Gasly has been consistent but, if you look at his junior record, he has never dominated any series he has contested; even over short periods of time. Moreover, his Win to Pole ratio (13-16; 0.81) is much lower than that of Verstappen (15-11; 1.36); the odds ratio being 1.68 in Verstappen's favour. Likewise, his podium to race ratio is also far lower, (42-122; 0.34) vs. (24-47; 0.51); an odds ratio of 1.48 in favour of Verstappen.

If you dig a little bit deeper the conclusion becomes more self-evident (imo). Gasly is quick, but Max has the high ground of team knowledge, and is a prodigy to boot. With F1 being the way it is, starting in front is more than half the battle won, and Max will be starting in front of Gasly more often than not.

Gasly will have to mentally toughen up, because he isn't the first driver to drive for Red Bull earlier than anticipated with an excellent pedigree - I'm referring to Daniil Kvyat. Kvyat was undoubtedly quick, but mentally fragile, and Ricciardo, and ultimately Sainz Jr., ended his career.

Now we just await and see who makes less mistakes of both of them. One is already labelled 'reckless' a couple of times even though he's already driving his 3rd season in F1. If Pierre can keep his consistency and keep his composure, he might just do the job and have more points than Max at the end of the season.

[ScottB]

It seems like the main question now is, where does Ocon go?

Reportedly, Wolff wants him in a Mclaren. Does that mean Williams have no space, or, despite it being presumably a fairly easy deal to do, do Merc view Williams as a bad place for their guy to go?

Mclaren: Sainz / Ocon
STR: Hartley / Norris (1 year loan)
Williams: Sirotkin / Someone - I'd have said Russell, but if they are so keen to keep Ocon out of there... though I guess it's still a step up for George

Sauber: Ericsson / Giovinazzi / Vandoorne - This will answer the question of how committed the new Ferrari bosses are to this project...

[Fulcrum]

...

Now we just await and see who makes less mistakes of both of them. One is already labelled 'reckless' a couple of times even though he's already driving his 3rd season in F1. If Pierre can keep his consistency and keep his composure, he might just do the job and have more points than Max at the end of the season.

The numbers.

Gasly: 7 retirements from 49 races in GP2, during his 4th to 6th years of driving single seat cars.
Verstappen: 10 retirements from 45 races in the FIA Euro F3 championship and the Florida Winter Series, his 1st and 2nd years of driving single seat cars.

Gasly: 3 retirements in 17 races so far in F1.
Verstappen: 17 retirements in 72 races so far in F1.

In both cases the numbers indicate Verstappen has experienced more retirements than Gasly.

The context.

The fact that Verstappen is in his 4th (not 3rd) season of F1 should be mitigated by the fact that Gasly is the more experienced single seat driver. Gasly has driven in about 150 single seat races; Max approximately 120. Gasly entered F1 having contested 120 events, Max fewer than 50. Max is learning, and has made mistakes, in the most public of domains where every little fault is brought to wide attention. We don't know how error prone Gasly may be when placed under extreme pressure.

The question becomes, how many of those retirements are of Verstappen's own devising, partial involvement, or pure reliability issues?

If Gasly is to compete against Verstappen it will take more than pure consistency. Consistency worked well in the era of poor reliability but, now that reliability has been rendered far less significant, outright speed is an even greater determinant of championship position than it ever has been.

[iotar__]

It's a surprise but you can't say Gasly's promotion was undeserved. He beat a tough competition in the form of Hartley, Vergne, one year delay or actually no one. Well done, that's how top cars seats should be assigned.

[Ground Effect]

It seems like the main question now is, where does Ocon go?

Reportedly, Wolff wants him in a Mclaren. Does that mean Williams have no space, or, despite it being presumably a fairly easy deal to do, do Merc view Williams as a bad place for their guy to go?

Mclaren: Sainz / Ocon
STR: Hartley / Norris (1 year loan)
Williams: Sirotkin / Someone - I'd have said Russell, but if they are so keen to keep Ocon out of there... though I guess it's still a step up for George

Sauber: Ericsson / Giovinazzi / Vandoorne - This will answer the question of how committed the new Ferrari bosses are to this project...

Maybe, Williams will have space for only one driver. It's not impossible that Sirotkin has a multi year deal, or has promised more funds from his backers. Their preference could also be for a British driver, if available. That could also attract some sponsors from those parts.

[WaikeCU]

It seems like the main question now is, where does Ocon go?

Reportedly, Wolff wants him in a Mclaren. Does that mean Williams have no space, or, despite it being presumably a fairly easy deal to do, do Merc view Williams as a bad place for their guy to go?

I only see Ocon paired up with a cheaper Merc engine deal. Would that mean Mclaren back with Merc PU? Sounds unlikely to me.

[alexx_88]

I think that's the only angle Mclaren should work. By this point Mercedes shouldn't be too worried about Mclaren disturbing them from battling at the front and Mclaren would be, after all, a customer that actually pays full price for the PUs, a fact which the Mercedes board should like.

[Phil]

I'm not sure McLaren can have Mercedes engines, even if Mercedes would allow it.

Mercedes supplies 2 customer teams in Force-India and Williams.
Ferrari supplies 2 customer teams in Haas and Sauber.
Honda supplies 2 customer teams in RedBull and Torro-Rosso.
Renault... supplies McLaren.

I'd assume Renault have a tight contract with McLaren, knowing that they were going to lose both RedBull teams eventually. Even if they didn't, I'd expect F1 to step in. For Mercedes to be supplying McLaren, one of the Mercedes customers would have to be "sold" to Renault and I'm not sure this could happen.

[ian_s]

I only see Ocon paired up with a cheaper Merc engine deal. Would that mean Mclaren back with Merc PU? Sounds unlikely to me.

Or merc using him to get insider knowledge of the renault PU.