godlameroso wrote: ↑24 Sep 2021, 16:02
It's going to rain until around 4pm tomorrow local time, with the heaviest rain around FP3 time, from what I can see. It won't be more than a drizzle on Sunday, likely dry. The rain will mean that there's a green track that will rubber in, I hope we saved our Hard tires, we're going to need them come race day. The undercut is very powerful, however there is a long pit time penalty.
The rears will need protecting.
A two stop is looking likely for the race, with a 3 stop being almost as fast. It may also afford enough pace disparity to make overtakes possible. If they don't have the top speed to make the pass into turn 2, then they'll need the downforce to make the pass into turn 13
I can think of 3 reasons for doing more than 2 stops: desperation, trying to steal the fastest lap, or getting a 'free stop' during a Safety Car period. You'd likely require a combination of these factors to facilitate 3 stops.
This track has a pitlane speed limit of 60kph. Between that and the low degradation tarmac, pit stops are hugely disincentivized, as evidenced by every race ever held here.
Look at the data from Practice 1, where the tyres typically degrade at their worst.
Bottas (C3) - 9 lap stint
01:41.762
01:40.801
01:41.978
01:40.761
01:40.675
01:41.172
01:40.232
01:40.615
01:40.516
Average: 01:40.946; 01:40.682 if excluding the initial high 01:41's.
I.e. Degradation lower than the fuel burn-off effect.
The Mercs are going to be under little to no threat with Max at the back of the field. They'll try to get through to Q3 on the C4 (yellow), nurse those tyres for as long as required during the race, before pitting for C3 (white). Then, come race end, they'll bolt on some C5's for the fastest lap. A 'fake' 2-stop in other words.
All of this assuming a dry race without Safety Cars.