2021 AMG Mercedes F1 Team

[AeroDynamic]

If it rains LH can win from 20th..
Maybe it's not a bad thing to happen, as much as I would like to see the cars run in a clean race.

Sorry but that's just unrealistic. A new PU in the wet isn't that beneficial as you can't use all of the extra performance anyway. And as good as Hamilton is in the wet, Max and others at the front are just as good. He'd need Max, Lando, etc., to have issues to even get on the podium. Something like Max's perfectly timed tyre change to inters at the last race, for example. Otherwise, like Max was, he'll stall around P5-7 at best.

Agree, you'd need a great big slice of luck at the right time, similar to what Verstappen had in Sochi. You can't make up all that time on the front 4-5 cars starting from 20th without a few safety cars, or a red flag or some bizarre weather to do the same thing. Maybe in 2014 when the Mercedes was in a class of it's own, but not in 2021 when it's much more competitive.

Verstappen got through the positions nicely in the first stint but ate his tyres doing so.If anything he was going backwards until the perfect amount of rain (to make it not a slam dunk for everyone to immediately come in at once) came along at the perfect time to bail him out. (a few laps to go, so some in the points chanced their arm on slicks)

Not to say it wouldn't or couldn't happen, but it's very unlikely for those circumstances to occur.

Absolutely.

This is exactly what I as saying in another thread. Some people think this is “crazy” to call it luck even though their opinion is at odds with the drivers in the paddock.

The rumour is 4000km before the engine starts acting up. How many Km on average per GP?/ weekend?

Red bull is going to win this championship, Mercedes can change my mind if they win Turkey and USA

[_cerber1]

The rumour is 4000km before the engine starts acting up. How many Km on average per GP?/ weekend?

700-800 km

300 race
100+ qualifications
300 +/- workouts
100 sprint race

[SiLo]

The rumour is 4000km before the engine starts acting up. How many Km on average per GP?/ weekend?

700-800 km

300 race
100+ qualifications
300 +/- workouts
100 sprint race

Seems about right for wanting to take one extra PU change then. At least the mileage from Monza and Spa was vastly reduced which should help.

[_cerber1]

Seems about right for wanting to take one extra PU change then. At least the mileage from Monza and Spa was vastly reduced which should help.

It is also necessary to take into account the fact that the second and subsequent motors do not work on Fridays and their net run: fp3 100, qualification 100, and race 300. According to my calculations, the third Hamilton motor traveled only 1800 km.

[El Scorchio]

Sorry but that's just unrealistic. A new PU in the wet isn't that beneficial as you can't use all of the extra performance anyway. And as good as Hamilton is in the wet, Max and others at the front are just as good. He'd need Max, Lando, etc., to have issues to even get on the podium. Something like Max's perfectly timed tyre change to inters at the last race, for example. Otherwise, like Max was, he'll stall around P5-7 at best.

Agree, you'd need a great big slice of luck at the right time, similar to what Verstappen had in Sochi. You can't make up all that time on the front 4-5 cars starting from 20th without a few safety cars, or a red flag or some bizarre weather to do the same thing. Maybe in 2014 when the Mercedes was in a class of it's own, but not in 2021 when it's much more competitive.

Verstappen got through the positions nicely in the first stint but ate his tyres doing so.If anything he was going backwards until the perfect amount of rain (to make it not a slam dunk for everyone to immediately come in at once) came along at the perfect time to bail him out. (a few laps to go, so some in the points chanced their arm on slicks)

Not to say it wouldn't or couldn't happen, but it's very unlikely for those circumstances to occur.

Absolutely.

This is exactly what I as saying in another thread. Some people think this is “crazy” to call it luck even though their opinion is at odds with the drivers in the paddock.

The rumour is 4000km before the engine starts acting up. How many Km on average per GP?/ weekend?

Red bull is going to win this championship, Mercedes can change my mind if they win Turkey and USA

Definitely. I think you'd have to be a bit cross eyed to not acknowledge there was quite a lot of luck involved there. Just as it should rightly be acknowledged Hamilton had luck with the red flag in Imola. People tend to view things in curious ways.

Anyway, that's dragging this a bit off topic from Mercedes team I think, but it'll definitely take a bit of good fortune in the race where there's an engine change, if there is to be one as I'm sure no-one expected a situation (even halfway through the race) where Verstappen would be able to finish second. The team will have to play it just right and get lucky to have a similar result with their own engine change.

Of course it could be helped out by changing on the same weekend as maybe the McLarens and any other Mercedes powered cars, if they are also to make a change, in order to maybe start 15-16 instead of 19-20 and have a couple of those faster competitors out of play in the race. I'm assuming at least HPP will know in advance when any other team is planning this. (Is such knowledge allowed to be shared?)

[dans79]

I'm assuming at least HPP will know in advance when any other team is planning this. (Is such knowledge allowed to be shared?)

For sure it would be illegal to share, but unless someone did something incredibly dumb, you would have no way of proving it.

[El Scorchio]

I'm assuming at least HPP will know in advance when any other team is planning this. (Is such knowledge allowed to be shared?)

For sure it would be illegal to share, but unless someone did something incredibly dumb, you would have no way of proving it.

Yes exactly! Also they'll take the new engine to all the remaining races anyway, in order to react to any such situations or indeed fit in case of a failure with the existing one. If say both McLarens or Astons did a swap, they'd be able to make a decision on the fly.

[AeroDynamic]

Agree, you'd need a great big slice of luck at the right time, similar to what Verstappen had in Sochi. You can't make up all that time on the front 4-5 cars starting from 20th without a few safety cars, or a red flag or some bizarre weather to do the same thing. Maybe in 2014 when the Mercedes was in a class of it's own, but not in 2021 when it's much more competitive.

Verstappen got through the positions nicely in the first stint but ate his tyres doing so.If anything he was going backwards until the perfect amount of rain (to make it not a slam dunk for everyone to immediately come in at once) came along at the perfect time to bail him out. (a few laps to go, so some in the points chanced their arm on slicks)

Not to say it wouldn't or couldn't happen, but it's very unlikely for those circumstances to occur.

Absolutely.

This is exactly what I as saying in another thread. Some people think this is “crazy” to call it luck even though their opinion is at odds with the drivers in the paddock.

The rumour is 4000km before the engine starts acting up. How many Km on average per GP?/ weekend?

Red bull is going to win this championship, Mercedes can change my mind if they win Turkey and USA

Definitely. I think you'd have to be a bit cross eyed to not acknowledge there was quite a lot of luck involved there. Just as it should rightly be acknowledged Hamilton had luck with the red flag in Imola. People tend to view things in curious ways.

Anyway, that's dragging this a bit off topic from Mercedes team I think, but it'll definitely take a bit of good fortune in the race where there's an engine change, if there is to be one as I'm sure no-one expected a situation (even halfway through the race) where Verstappen would be able to finish second. The team will have to play it just right and get lucky to have a similar result with their own engine change.

Of course it could be helped out by changing on the same weekend as maybe the McLarens and any other Mercedes powered cars, if they are also to make a change, in order to maybe start 15-16 instead of 19-20 and have a couple of those faster competitors out of play in the race. I'm assuming at least HPP will know in advance when any other team is planning this. (Is such knowledge allowed to be shared?)

Well said brother. It’s going to be very interesting to see what Mercedes mean to do with their “aggressive” strategy that they are talking about.

It would be very exciting if it turned out that they have been experimenting with running the engines harder. The rumour was out that Mercedes want to push the envelope on reliability and see if they can test the Honda and put them under pressure. Since then, the narrative has spun around, which is a bit suspicious. Who knows if there’s some red herring in these engine changes from Valterri.


On another Mercedes topic, I’m excited to see what’s going to happen when George steps in.

Can he match Hamilton? Or will he simply better Hamilton like Hamilton did Alonso in 2007.

[ringo]

If it rains LH can win from 20th..
Maybe it's not a bad thing to happen, as much as I would like to see the cars run in a clean race.

Sorry but that's just unrealistic. A new PU in the wet isn't that beneficial as you can't use all of the extra performance anyway. And as good as Hamilton is in the wet, Max and others at the front are just as good. He'd need Max, Lando, etc., to have issues to even get on the podium. Something like Max's perfectly timed tyre change to inters at the last race, for example. Otherwise, like Max was, he'll stall around P5-7 at best.

Agree, you'd need a great big slice of luck at the right time, similar to what Verstappen had in Sochi. You can't make up all that time on the front 4-5 cars starting from 20th without a few safety cars, or a red flag or some bizarre weather to do the same thing. Maybe in 2014 when the Mercedes was in a class of it's own, but not in 2021 when it's much more competitive.

Verstappen got through the positions nicely in the first stint but ate his tyres doing so. If anything he was going backwards until the perfect amount of rain (to make it not a slam dunk for everyone to immediately come in at once) came along at the perfect time to bail him out. (a few laps to go, so some in the points chanced their arm on slicks)

Not to say it wouldn't or couldn't happen, but it's very unlikely for those circumstances to occur.

Max was a bit impatient and that lead to his tyres finishing. I do not think Lewis drives the same way. With consistent rain with everyone on the same tyre, I believe it is possible to win from the back once the leaders make mistakes, or they cover each other on a suboptimal strategy then a safety car happens. It is not as impossible as you would imagine. A podium is very easy in the rain from the back with LH driving. I don't recall any wet race that he has not won or podiumed regardless of how far he fell back. Even with the cars being close in performance in the dry; it's usually the case that some cars find the right tyre temps that leaves them 1s a lap faster in the same conditions. A mercedes driven by Lewis will find the podium position in 35 laps of running in the wet. Luck is needed of course, and I did not rule that out.
LH needed luck to win this championship since winter testing. The car is inherently compromised and stuck in development. He needs luck and there is no shame in admitting that.

[dans79]

Max was a bit impatient and that lead to his tyres finishing. I do not think Lewis drives the same way. With consistent rain with everyone on the same tyre, I believe it is possible to win from the back once the leaders make mistakes, or they cover each other on a suboptimal strategy then a safety car happens.

That's the luck part. Your competitors making mistakes, a safety car happening at a time that benefits you the most.

[PlatinumZealot]

The rumour is 4000km before the engine starts acting up. How many Km on average per GP?/ weekend?

700-800 km

300 race
100+ qualifications
300 +/- workouts
100 sprint race

Seems about right. The figures for free practice can be easily halved if they make Bottas do all the leg work.

Using 20 laps for free practice approximately 100 km. The thing with these things is that the engine really gets most wear from full throttle more than the km ran. And the practice engine is usually different. But lets work with it anyway.

Lewis should only do extended runs if they are absolutely required to understand the car. And I mean to protect the engine that he will race. So FP3... Limited runs. Maybe 6 laps With four in/out laps at light throttle. Qualifying.. Only Four laps plus eight in/put laps of light throttle.

In addition to engine savings at Monza and Spa and wet qualifyings in Sochi he should in theory be able to do five more races on the third engine without worrying.

[ringo]

There is also the Norris and Russel factor. These guys are good in the wet and could be upfront fighting Max. All three are known for playing bumper cars.

[Gillian]

Sorry but that's just unrealistic. A new PU in the wet isn't that beneficial as you can't use all of the extra performance anyway. And as good as Hamilton is in the wet, Max and others at the front are just as good. He'd need Max, Lando, etc., to have issues to even get on the podium. Something like Max's perfectly timed tyre change to inters at the last race, for example. Otherwise, like Max was, he'll stall around P5-7 at best.

Agree, you'd need a great big slice of luck at the right time, similar to what Verstappen had in Sochi. You can't make up all that time on the front 4-5 cars starting from 20th without a few safety cars, or a red flag or some bizarre weather to do the same thing. Maybe in 2014 when the Mercedes was in a class of it's own, but not in 2021 when it's much more competitive.

Verstappen got through the positions nicely in the first stint but ate his tyres doing so.If anything he was going backwards until the perfect amount of rain (to make it not a slam dunk for everyone to immediately come in at once) came along at the perfect time to bail him out. (a few laps to go, so some in the points chanced their arm on slicks)

Not to say it wouldn't or couldn't happen, but it's very unlikely for those circumstances to occur.

Absolutely.

This is exactly what I as saying in another thread. Some people think this is “crazy” to call it luck even though their opinion is at odds with the drivers in the paddock.

The rumour is 4000km before the engine starts acting up. How many Km on average per GP?/ weekend?

Red bull is going to win this championship, Mercedes can change my mind if they win Turkey and USA

It was a futile discussion about "luck evening out" between Hamilton and Verstappen. Of course if was lucky the rain came when it came, but that is not the same thing as "lucking into a podium". He did overtake others on slicks in the rain, nothing lucky about that. Saying Verstappen got lucky and nothing else does a disservice to the great race he did.

With Hamilton it has been the same for years. I remember many times in other year's where he was called lucky for finishing high, after a race with difficult circumstances, and often I did not agree either. Circumstances can be lucky but that should not overshadow the performance of a driver.

Bottas finishing as high in Sochi as he did after a dreadful race... Now that was pure luck.

[NathanOlder]

Agree, you'd need a great big slice of luck at the right time, similar to what Verstappen had in Sochi. You can't make up all that time on the front 4-5 cars starting from 20th without a few safety cars, or a red flag or some bizarre weather to do the same thing. Maybe in 2014 when the Mercedes was in a class of it's own, but not in 2021 when it's much more competitive.

Verstappen got through the positions nicely in the first stint but ate his tyres doing so.If anything he was going backwards until the perfect amount of rain (to make it not a slam dunk for everyone to immediately come in at once) came along at the perfect time to bail him out. (a few laps to go, so some in the points chanced their arm on slicks)

Not to say it wouldn't or couldn't happen, but it's very unlikely for those circumstances to occur.

Absolutely.

This is exactly what I as saying in another thread. Some people think this is “crazy” to call it luck even though their opinion is at odds with the drivers in the paddock.

The rumour is 4000km before the engine starts acting up. How many Km on average per GP?/ weekend?

Red bull is going to win this championship, Mercedes can change my mind if they win Turkey and USA

It was a futile discussion about "luck evening out" between Hamilton and Verstappen. Of course if was lucky the rain came when it came, but that is not the same thing as "lucking into a podium". He did overtake others on slicks in the rain, nothing lucky about that. Saying Verstappen got lucky and nothing else does a disservice to the great race he did.

With Hamilton it has been the same for years. I remember many times in other year's where he was called lucky for finishing high, after a race with difficult circumstances, and often I did not agree either. Circumstances can be lucky but that should not overshadow the performance of a driver.

Bottas finishing as high in Sochi as he did after a dreadful race... Now that was pure luck.

One thing missed by most is being on the medium tyre when the rain came, was far better than being on the hard tyre.
Highlighting this was seeing Giovinazzi passing Norris out of the last corner and then slowing down to let Lando back through. The softer the tyre, the better in those tricky conditions .

[atanatizante]

Sorry but that's just unrealistic. A new PU in the wet isn't that beneficial as you can't use all of the extra performance anyway. And as good as Hamilton is in the wet, Max and others at the front are just as good. He'd need Max, Lando, etc., to have issues to even get on the podium. Something like Max's perfectly timed tyre change to inters at the last race, for example. Otherwise, like Max was, he'll stall around P5-7 at best.

Agree, you'd need a great big slice of luck at the right time, similar to what Verstappen had in Sochi. You can't make up all that time on the front 4-5 cars starting from 20th without a few safety cars, or a red flag or some bizarre weather to do the same thing. Maybe in 2014 when the Mercedes was in a class of it's own, but not in 2021 when it's much more competitive.

Verstappen got through the positions nicely in the first stint but ate his tyres doing so. If anything he was going backwards until the perfect amount of rain (to make it not a slam dunk for everyone to immediately come in at once) came along at the perfect time to bail him out. (a few laps to go, so some in the points chanced their arm on slicks)

Not to say it wouldn't or couldn't happen, but it's very unlikely for those circumstances to occur.

Max was a bit impatient and that lead to his tyres finishing. I do not think Lewis drives the same way. With consistent rain with everyone on the same tyre, I believe it is possible to win from the back once the leaders make mistakes, or they cover each other on a suboptimal strategy then a safety car happens. It is not as impossible as you would imagine. A podium is very easy in the rain from the back with LH driving. I don't recall any wet race that he has not won or podiumed regardless of how far he fell back. Even with the cars being close in performance in the dry; it's usually the case that some cars find the right tyre temps that leaves them 1s a lap faster in the same conditions. A mercedes driven by Lewis will find the podium position in 35 laps of running in the wet. Luck is needed of course, and I did not rule that out.
LH needed luck to win this championship since winter testing. The car is inherently compromised and stuck in development. He needs luck and there is no shame in admitting that.

There is another thing we need to factor in to support here a new PU for HAM had we would have a wet race: RB16B is warming up the tyres quicker than W12 car can hence it has a higher rate of wearing and tearing for any wet weather tyre, as we could see that at Imola. Thus VER will need here at least a 2 stop race strategy if not a 3 one...

On the other side W12 has both warming up issues and it`s kinder with tyres. And bearing in mind the last year race and HAM`s ability to nurse the tyres he`ll need fewer pitstops for wet tyres than VER ... with one caveat, I`d say: he`ll need to start from the pit lane in order to have the best possible wet setup!