nudger wrote:i think Martin is being very possitive to claim a win in spain.
i think a significant aero upgrade is to appear at china. it will probably involve a first generation double decker diffuser...hopefully better, but not a match for the brawns.
early forecast for sepang is saying rain! not sure if that is good or bad news for mclaren
I think the talk of winning was a little bit silly, perhaps a reaction to all the negative press they're having to take at the moment, and a comment that hasn't been repeated since.
My prediction - there'll be a small step in Malaysia, the first part of the major overhaul in China with the second part in Bahrain - at one of those two races the diffuser will be opened out, the majority of the rest of the changes will be in order to get air under the car to the diffuser. In Spain they'll have another aero step providing refinement to the overall aero package, by which stage they're hoping that it'll all start coming together to give them a shot at the top step of the podium.
If they're lucky they could pull it off. Chances are they'll at least move consistently up the field as the season wears on. If they're not at least close in Spain (especially if Button wins all the races up till then) then I'd guess they'd effectively write off this season and move on to next season. They've already started on the 2010 car but they'll start diverting more and more resources over if the results don't start to come.
Mechanically the car is solid. Nothing wrong with the wheelbase. Their tyre management appeared to be better than BMW and Ferrari. From casual inspection on the TV they have the best KERS solution on the grid at the moment.
The aero isn't where it should be, compared to the rest of the field, but they're making rapid progress. They've gained about a second in the last 3 - 4 weeks, based on notoriously unreliable test times, with about the same again required to match the Brawn. That is doable given that they have flaws in their aero that they can correct, whereas Brawn can only incrementally improve and refine their current package.
Guess we'll see over the next few weeks.
Oh, and rain in Malaysia is probably bad (lack of downforce will hinder them), and will likely reduce or eliminate the benefit of KERS (engine power is not so important in the wet), but it could also shuffle the pack a bit and give Hamilton a chance of working wonders again. So all in all, it's probably not too bad for them, won't make it any easier but could introduce that element of luck required to get a good result.