2021 Mexican Grand Prix - Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, Nov 05 - 07

[BlueCheetah66]

This seems to be the bog standard "Mercedes have the dominant car" narrative that gets played out before each race this season. It's nonsense because it suggests the only reason Red Bull are winning is because Mercedes have been making mistakes.

Or, Perhaps the fact that's the track has a lot of straits where Merc being able to stall the diffuser will pay big dividends.

Turns 9, 11, and 17, will determine at what speed they can collapse the rear and stall the diffuser.

For example if you stall the diffuser at 250-260 KPH, you will run the entire front strait, 80-85% of the strait betweens turns 3 and 4, and the entire strait between turns 11 and 12 with the diffuser stalled. That's going to be worth a lot of time.

Straight line speed has not usually been the main factor at Mexico even with the long straights because of the altitude. Thats why most teams will run a high downforce setup anyway. So I don't think that Mercedes' suspension trick will be as effective here.

[SiLo]

They run Monaco level wing and get Monza level downforce.

[Sieper]

Or it will be just because of the big wing settings. You can then drop that on the latter part of the straight and it will have relatively more impact then with a smaller wing. How much of that is "canceled" by the thinner air I have no idea. We will see soon enough.

[Sevach]

Mexico doesn't have many long straights, it has one, it's the mother of all straights however lol.
I'd say in terms of track layout Baku is the closest thing in my opinion.
Drag penalty is also reduced by a lot here.
Those are cons for Mercedes.

It's possible Mercedes wasn't able to setup their suspension in their prefered way for Austin because of the sector 1 bumps, that's a possible positive for them.

The clincher of course is how their engine will perform in the altitude, Mercedes didn't look good at all in the Red Bull Ring "sneak preview", but i can't blame the engine, Mclaren was flying.

[HungarianRacer]

This seems to be the bog standard "Mercedes have the dominant car" narrative that gets played out before each race this season. It's nonsense because it suggests the only reason Red Bull are winning is because Mercedes have been making mistakes.

Or, Perhaps the fact that's the track has a lot of straits where Merc being able to stall the diffuser will pay big dividends.

Turns 9, 11, and 17, will determine at what speed they can collapse the rear and stall the diffuser.

For example if you stall the diffuser at 250-260 KPH, you will run the entire front strait, 80-85% of the strait betweens turns 3 and 4, and the entire strait between turns 11 and 12 with the diffuser stalled. That's going to be worth a lot of time.

Straight line speed has not usually been the main factor at Mexico even with the long straights because of the altitude. Thats why most teams will run a high downforce setup anyway. So I don't think that Mercedes' suspension trick will be as effective here.

Drag and downforce (ignoring suspension movement and body deformation) increases quadratically with speed, low drag will always be an advantage on a stretch like Mexico's start/finish straight, no matter what.

[PlatinumZealot]

This seems to be the bog standard "Mercedes have the dominant car" narrative that gets played out before each race this season. It's nonsense because it suggests the only reason Red Bull are winning is because Mercedes have been making mistakes. We are looking at paper thin margins, but Red Bull have the faster car, and there's no reason to believe they won't be incredibly strong at a track they have historically done very well at.

I expect Max to go well here, and Checo is going to be hungry for a podium at his home race. A personally wouldn't bet on anything other than a Red Bull 1-2.

If Redbull 1-2 I would like to see perez at p1

If RedBull are 1 - 2, no way Perez gets to the take the win. Once the Max has won the title, yes, but at the moment there's no chance.

If Perez is P1, Lewis P2, Max P3.. Perez allowed to win.

If Perez P1, Max P2, Lewis P3.... Perez must give up his place.

But?!
Perez P1, Bottas P2, Max P3, Lewis >= P4.... Then does Perez drop back to P3 to allow Max to take P2? (BOT P1, VER P2, PER P3, Ham P4)

RedBull will lose a net 14? points... But Max gains a plus 3..

[godlameroso]

Ferrari will be very strong on the medium tire, not so much on the hard. They'll find it difficult to get the tire working in its sweet spot.

If they make the hard tire work it will be at the expense of the other two compounds.

[godlameroso]

They run Monaco level wing and get Monza level downforce.

Monaco level wings for Spa level downforce is probably more accurate. The air is thinner but it's not that thin, air density is reduced by ~30%, although that doesn't translate into 30% less downforce exactly. What matters is the relationship between the high and low pressure surfaces and the way flow is organized around the chassis.

If there's 30% less drag, then the air flowing under the car is also ~30% faster, meaning the velocity differential between the upper surface of the car, and the floor is not altered linearly.

Larger opening to the leading edge of the floor, may help around Mexico, Alpine style.

[godlameroso]

Mexico doesn't have many long straights, it has one, it's the mother of all straights however lol.
I'd say in terms of track layout Baku is the closest thing in my opinion.
Drag penalty is also reduced by a lot here.
Those are cons for Mercedes.

It's possible Mercedes wasn't able to setup their suspension in their prefered way for Austin because of the sector 1 bumps, that's a possible positive for them.

The clincher of course is how their engine will perform in the altitude, Mercedes didn't look good at all in the Red Bull Ring "sneak preview", but i can't blame the engine, Mclaren was flying.

Baku's main straight is longer.

[Manoah2u]

This seems to be the bog standard "Mercedes have the dominant car" narrative that gets played out before each race this season. It's nonsense because it suggests the only reason Red Bull are winning is because Mercedes have been making mistakes. We are looking at paper thin margins, but Red Bull have the faster car, and there's no reason to believe they won't be incredibly strong at a track they have historically done very well at.

I expect Max to go well here, and Checo is going to be hungry for a podium at his home race. A personally wouldn't bet on anything other than a Red Bull 1-2.

If Redbull 1-2 I would like to see perez at p1

If RedBull are 1 - 2, no way Perez gets to the take the win. Once the Max has won the title, yes, but at the moment there's no chance.

It very much remains to be seen whether this is actually going to be a RedBull 1-2.
Though i feel like Mercedes has been slacking a bit, and RB has been impressive in their game, and some Merc results have been disappointing, let's not forget that Mercedes still wants to make this season happen and so does Lewis.

Also, despite the obvious disadvantage Merc has had all year thanks to the regs, the 'rear suspension drop gimmick' is something beneficial to Mercedes which RBR doesn't have.

Supposedly Honda would be in an advantage with their 'bigger turbo' but that still remains to be seen on just how much a benefit we're looking at if at all. Mercedes had to compromise Austin's downforce by a big margin and yet came tantilizing close to fighting for the win. The Mexican track does not bare the problem Merc was facing at all compared to Austin, so they could find themselves getting a benefit from their suspension system, and tire management.

Im going to be honest here, i hope for a Hamilton win + fastest lap to keep the championship alive.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Hamilton and Verstappen to collide @ Brazil, and having the final 2 GP's to get down to the teeth. That said, this could happen @ Mexico too and since Checo always has been there when Max hasn't, i would love to see Checo WIN his home GP.

[ringo]

They run Monaco level wing and get Monza level downforce.

Monaco level wings for Spa level downforce is probably more accurate. The air is thinner but it's not that thin, air density is reduced by ~30%, although that doesn't translate into 30% less downforce exactly. What matters is the relationship between the high and low pressure surfaces and the way flow is organized around the chassis.

If there's 30% less drag, then the air flowing under the car is also ~30% faster, meaning the velocity differential between the upper surface of the car, and the floor is not altered linearly.

Larger opening to the leading edge of the floor, may help around Mexico, Alpine style.

That's not the only factor. Because the momentum of the air is less per cubic volume, the little flicks and deflectors and winglets will not be able to manipulate the air in the same way that they did under normal air densities.

I wont make any predictions until the end of P3. However redbull is due a nightmare weekend. I would love to see Checo act out and go against the team wishes and fight max for the win. Then maybe some wing damage or floor damage happens and a gravel trap visit.

[ardagozen]

Really would like to see Perez on P1!

[Dee]

I am so excited for this weekend

For me the season has looked like;

Bahrain - RB ahead in Q, Merc with balance/setup issues (RB engine turned down during race, stayed down until France)
Imola to France - Merc ahead in race pace with Baku an outlier, Merc with balance/setup issues
Austria to Styria - RB ahead in race pace and Q, Merc with balance/setup issues

New stiffer back tyres introduced

Silverstone to Turkey - Merc ahead in race pace and Q with Zandvoort an outlier, RB with balance/setup issues
COTA - RB ahead in race pace and Q, Merc with balance/setup issues

This season has swung back and forth with RB winning on "historical" Merc tracks but we have never had both cars operating at their full potential at the same time imo

Maybe this might happen in Mexico...

RB high rake chassis with Honda high altitude engine vs Mercedes trick suspension and higher engine mapping with no setup/balance issues for either team?

RB have history here but throw that out the window imo, if RB are winning on Mercedes tracks, then they have changed their car to be more circuit diverse. Do they still have that edge in Mexico and Brazil that they had from 2018-2019?

And if Mercedes demolished RB in Turkey, will they bring that to Mexico as both circuits are similar apart from the altitude?

All shall be revealed

[hollus]

If there's 30% less drag, then the air flowing under the car is also ~30% faster

I don’t think that is correct. I’d think the second number should be close to 0%, but I’ll leave it to the pros to pitch in.

[Alexf1]

They run Monaco level wing and get Monza level downforce.

Monaco level wings for Spa level downforce is probably more accurate. The air is thinner but it's not that thin, air density is reduced by ~30%, although that doesn't translate into 30% less downforce exactly. What matters is the relationship between the high and low pressure surfaces and the way flow is organized around the chassis.

If there's 30% less drag, then the air flowing under the car is also ~30% faster, meaning the velocity differential between the upper surface of the car, and the floor is not altered linearly.

Larger opening to the leading edge of the floor, may help around Mexico, Alpine style.

That's not the only factor. Because the momentum of the air is less per cubic volume, the little flicks and deflectors and winglets will not be able to manipulate the air in the same way that they did under normal air densities.

I wont make any predictions until the end of P3. However redbull is due a nightmare weekend. I would love to see Checo act out and go against the team wishes and fight max for the win. Then maybe some wing damage or floor damage happens and a gravel trap visit.

Its a dangerous sport, be careful what you wish for..